ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Big O]

New VDM gives us a movement of 320.

I live in the Rio Grande Valley, just wnw of BRO, and I just finished completing my hurricane preparations. Of course, as soon as I finished I took a gander at the 00z GFDL, which now has a landfall in NE Mexico about 30-50 miles south of BRO with a rapid turn to the west and wsw, ala the very consistent runs of the EURO, meaning that while we do get rain and some wind, the worst impacts will be south of Texas/Mexico border. In addition, I believe that there may be some evidence of a turn to the west-http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html. This may be a wooble, or it may be the beginning of the west turn suggested by the GFDL and the previous runs of the EURO. Of course, while writing this post, I checked the 00z EURO which has landfall further north than most of its previous runs (i.e., right along the Tex./Mex. border. Please let me know your thoughts, as my wife and I are very concerned about potentially catastrophic flooding.

[Honeyko]

She has the radar presentation of a 115-125mph storm right now.

I'm guessing the recon eyewall drops randomly hit a few of the remaining weaker patches.

....do they report maximum encountered gusts (what is the short duration the probes sample? 1 second?)?

[RL3AO]

She has the radar presentation of a 115-125mph storm right now.

I'm guessing the recon eyewall drops randomly hit a few of the remaining weaker patches.

....do they report maximum encountered gusts (what is the short duration the probes sample? 1 second?)?

Radar does not indicate a cat 3 storm.

[Big O]

New VDM gives us a movement of 320.

I live in the Rio Grande Valley, just wnw of BRO, and I just finished completing my hurricane preparations. Of course, as soon as I finished I took a gander at the 00z GFDL, which now has a landfall in NE Mexico about 30-50 miles south of BRO with a rapid turn to the west and wsw, ala the very consistent runs of the EURO, meaning that while we do get rain and some wind, the worst impacts will be south of Texas/Mexico border. In addition, I believe that there may be some evidence of a turn to the west-http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html. This may be a wooble, or it may be the beginning of the west turn suggested by the GFDL and the previous runs of the EURO. Of course, while writing this post, I checked the 00z EURO which has landfall further north than most of its previous runs (i.e., right along the Tex./Mex. border. Please let me know your thoughts, as my wife and I are very concerned about potentially catastrophic flooding.

Sorry for the link error. Here is the link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

[RL3AO]

ZCZC MIATCEAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DOLLY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
200 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

AT 2 AM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...135
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

NNNN

[Hurricaneman13]

Hurricane Dolly looks like it is really close to land. If it didn't strengthen now, it probably doesn't have much of a chance of making Cat 2/Cat 3.

[americanrebel]

So she would have to turn due West right now to hit S of Bro, don't see that happening, if anything it will hit N of Bro.

[funster]

Why has the Weather Channel switched to Storm Stories crap - isn't wasn't happening right now a storm story?

[PTrackerLA]

I think the best bet at this stage is to follow the storm by radar here: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes.

I think the NHC is dead on with a landfall near or right on the TX/MX border and I feel the Brownsville area should be bracing for hurricane conditions by late morning. I'm also very concerned about the flooding but it all comes down to how fast she moves. Best wishes down there, I know what the anxiety feels like.

[funster]

So she would have to turn due West right now to hit S of Bro, don't see that happening, if anything it will hit N of Bro.

It's still east-southeast of Brownsville.

[Hurricaneman13]

I am anxious to see how Dolly looks on visible satellite imagery.

[americanrebel]

Looking at that Radar, the center isn't even moving, if it is it is to the NW.

[Honeyko]

Radar does not indicate a cat 3 storm.

*shrug* I've seen worse-looking storms with that rating.

Hurricanes with intermittent inner eyewall bands will have wild swings in wind velocity in that region, and there's considerable randomness as to where the canisters go after they're dropped from the planes.

[PTrackerLA]

I see a slow WNW movement right towards Brownsville based on radar but she likely won't be inland by 7am so it's sleep time! I'm guessing landfall at 11am with 95mph winds, she looks better than ever.

[Hurricaneman13]

Even though this system is close to land, the eyewall looks like it is strengthening and the eye looks like it is trying to form on infrared. The eye is clearly seen on radar, though.

[Honeyko]

"Marble in a bowl" meso apparent on radar now.

[PTrackerLA]

Even though this system is close to land, the eyewall looks like it is strengthening and the eye looks like it is trying to form on infrared. The eye is clearly seen on radar, though.

This is a relatively compact system. Humberto was even smaller in size but still it intensified right up until landfall and possibly even while part of it's eyewall was inland. I'm worried about a cat 2 by morning. That was a rare occurence, but the water is just as shallow here so I wouldn't rule it out.

[HarlequinBoy]

Dolly really does have a beautiful radar presentation. The northern eyewall is about even with the Texmex border.

[freport_texas21]

morning guys! its about 2:45 am..i just got woke up by a HUGE thunder storm..im in freeport and its down right SCARY outside..rain is comming down HARD, wind is blowing HARD (at times im guessing close to 30mph), and theres a lighting show like u would not believe!..if this is only a rain band from dolly id hate to be in brownsville right now..this is crazy!

[Innotech]

yeah. I was home during Hurricane andrew and Rita, and both times Lafayette felt between 50-70 mph winds at times. It does get scary. When hurricane Lili went right up the Vermillion (basically dead on Lafayette hit) I was all the way up in Natchitoches, because we werent taking chances when that storm reached 150 mph Cat 4 right off the coast.
Its pretty nerve wracking to hear all that crashing and banging noise outside all night.