ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[paintplaye]

Simply stunning..

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

That's what I've been thinking. I must say, I'm surprised the winds aren't higher... but the data I guess doesn't support it.

Well they did have in the mid 90s for sustained wind.

[WmE]

The pressure in H.Dolly down to 972 sounds to me like it's dropped enought to be a cat.2 maybe close to a cat.3 storm? A weak Cat.3??????

most likely a Cat2. Pressure wise it's a solid to strong Cat2, but wnds don't support it. I'd still say 85kts.

[hurricanefloyd5]

well it could become a cat.2 on approach of landfall!!!!!

[KWT]

Yeah I have to agree AFM its really undergoing RI right now IMO, does look like a cat-2 and the dropsonde found 82kts so its really close to categroy-2 as it is and pressure found would suggest this is so close to category-2.

However will it make it offically before landfall, thats another matter!

winds should continue to increase right upto landfall as the winds catch up to the pressure drops.

[americanrebel]

I just hope she don't decide to do what Humberto did last year. That would cause much damage all along the coast.

[Air Force Met]

Simply stunning..

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

That's what I've been thinking. I must say, I'm surprised the winds aren't higher... but the data I guess doesn't support it.

Its seems awful presumptuous to me (not of you...) to assume that you are gathering the absolute highest winds when you are at 10K feet and are a dot in one piece of a quad. Mind you they aren't even flying in the east or north quads since it isn't the "ALPHA" pattern.

I'm sorry...but when I see a 972mb pressure...and meso's rotating in the eyewall (and even a dropsounde with 82 kts at the sfc)...and the storm isn't rapidly falling apart over 20C water..then I know I have a cat 2.

Again..just my opinion...

[paintplaye]

Looks pretty impressive on IR. Also look at moisture it is bringing up, could bring more showers for SE Texas tomm.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfir.html

[Recurve]

First opening of the eye I've seen on most channels.

[KWT]

I do have to agree AFM I see no reason why this isn't a 85kts hurricane but right now data only supports 80kts that I've seen. Saying all that AFM I think winds will increase right upto landfall in a few hours time and we maywell find enough to support an upgrade right now. This reminds me of when Katrina bombed, pressure supported much higher winds yet it took time for them to ramp up.

[alan1961]

OMG, it IS star shaped! The Lone Star for Texas huh?

Wow, it's true. It looks like the center is a five-pointed star. Interesting.

she certainly wont go 'DEEP' in the heart of Texas

[ekal]

Eyewall becoming more symmetric? Either way, scary.

[HURAKAN]

Looking ever better now:

[HarlequinBoy]

Simply stunning..

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

That's what I've been thinking. I must say, I'm surprised the winds aren't higher... but the data I guess doesn't support it.

Its seems awful presumptuous to me (not of you...) to assume that you are gathering the absolute highest winds when you are at 10K feet and are a dot in one piece of a quad. Mind you they aren't even flying in the east or north quads since it isn't the "ALPHA" pattern.

I'm sorry...but when I see a 972mb pressure...and meso's rotating in the eyewall (and even a dropsounde with 82 kts at the sfc)...and the storm isn't rapidly falling apart over 20C water..then I know I have a cat 2.

Again..just my opinion...

I see what you're saying and it makes perfect sense. Thanks!

[americanrebel]

The eye hasn't moved that much in the past 8 hours, so who knows what she is going to do in 24 hours yet alone 4 hours.

[KWT]

Looks pretty impressive on IR. Also look at moisture it is bringing up, could bring more showers for SE Texas tomm.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfir.html

Indeed it does look really impressive. By the way in those Mesos we could well see some really high winds and as Derek said in another thread, probably where the severe wind damamge will occur.

[Just Joshing You]

I love the fact that the NHC was pretty much dead on when it came to their forecast. Within just a few miles it appears. It looks like she took a jog to the north though. May make landfall just on the texas side.

[HarlequinBoy]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
645 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CAMERON COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
SOUTHEASTERN HIDALGO COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
EASTERN WILLACY COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

* UNTIL 715 AM CDT

* AT 645 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF HARLINGEN VALLEY AIRPORT...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 46 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
PORFIRIO BY 650 AM CDT.
SANTA MONICA BY 655 AM CDT.
SEBASTIAN BY 705 AM CDT.
PRIMERA BY 710 AM CDT.
SANTA ROSA BY 715 AM CDT.

[HURAKAN]

Updates every 8 minutes:

[HURAKAN]

114630 2549N 09637W 6969 02855 9661 +147 +090 172010 012 000 005 03

extra: 966 mb

[ALhurricane]

114630 2549N 09637W 6969 02855 9661 +147 +090 172010 012 000 005 03

extra: 966 mb

Dolly is certainly strengthening rather rapidly mow. IMO, NHC needs to upgrade at the next advisory.