Large Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

[HURAKAN]

You may be watching future 98L.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I like what I see southeast of the Cape verdes, also it is "lower" over warmer waters. So it is worth watching.

[Vortex]

cycloneye,

Thanks for posting that image. IMO, this will be the storm that needs to be watched very closely including those in the islands and points west to include mainland US

[njweather]

Well, SAL isn't an issue:

[cheezyWXguy]

I think both this and 97L need to be watched very carefully...97L looking a little better, but this looks great and conditions appear to support development. I saw cycloneye's image on page 2, and the first thing that came to mind was in 2004 when danielle, earl, and frances were seen all at the same time traversing the atlantic...my, what a sight that was.

[RL3AO]

These waves will have a negative MJO wave to deal with soon.

[cheezyWXguy]

These waves will have a negative MJO wave to deal with soon.

It doesnt matter too much...not exactly the deciding factor between development or not and Im sure many storms have formed during a negative mjo. If Im correct, the epac has been out of a +mjo for at least a week or 2 and it continues to boom out new storms every few days, currently at #7...i dont see why we couldnt see a few in the atlantic as well.

[Mecklenburg]

what's an mjo?

[JonathanBelles]

These waves will have a negative MJO wave to deal with soon.

I sort of expected MJO to be the reason of the latest peak in TC activity.

[RL3AO]

what's an mjo?

MJO = Madden-Julian oscillation

Basically its a global pattern of increased and decreased rainfall caused by higher and lower upper level divergence (Pro met confirmation?)




Basically the brown lines mean decreased precipitation and the green lines mean increased precipitation. It also appears to be related to tropical cyclone formation. Over the past few weeks, the Atlantic and East Pacific was in a very favorable MJO wave and during that time Bertha formed with the East Pacific being busy as well. Now the Atlantic is entering a negative MJO phase. It doesn't mean tropical cyclones can't form (Dolly did), but it just makes the conditions not as favorable.

[fasterdisaster]

Is the center of circulation technically still on Africa or has it entered water?

If so when would it be 98L?

[N2FSU]

Looks really good coming off of Africa:

[KWT]

Well its got a large mass of convection though some of that may well be ITCZ stuff anyway its hard to say but still it does look det. 97L will probably get going first followed by this which IMO has a high chance of being 98L.

[cycloneye]

Here,you can see ex 97L and the mass of clouds emerging Africa SE of that.

[perk]

Well with only 7 days left in July i think we will squeeze at least one more TC in.

[gatorcane]

SSTs are plenty warm enough and are in fact above normal this year in that area. I think there is a decent chance the convection could sustain over the next 24-48 hours (instead of going poof).

[Blown Away]

Are the long range models still latching on to this wave and bringing it near the islands next week?

[Frank2]

The GFS doesn't show anything in particular, other than the subtropical ridge migrating east and west during that period...

[Gustywind]

Good question Blown_away .... ??? What are the recents runs for this one??? Any models right now with this wave?

[Gustywind]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200807

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model is predicting development of a new tropical wave, due to move off the coast of Africa 4-5 days from now.
I'll have an update Thursday.

Jeff Masters