ATL: Invest 97L in Central Atlantic

[cycloneye]

so does the thread need to be moved again?

Not yet,until ATCF releases the best track and reactivates 97L,although it is at the navy site.

[HURAKAN]

The system was never taken out of NRL, if my memory serves me right.

[tailgater]

I can't get over how large this wave is. I wouldn't think development would occur till it gets @55W, but I see the TPC has it breaking into 2 sections with the northern half closing off and re curving.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
Seems to have a good circulation @ 15N 35W at mid to low levels.
Here's a nice loop of it.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html

[HURAKAN]

It's really large and we could see the northern part develop in the Atlantic and the southern part try to develop in the Caribbean or develop in the EPAC. Still, I'm just guessing and we will have to wait. I continue being pleased by the overall organization of the system and expect it will at least try to develop over warmer waters.

[cycloneye]

Its really large the overall circulation with a center at 15n.

[tailgater]

I don't know what the forecast holds in store for this 1 but it won't be easy for it to develop with this in front of it.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

[gatorcane]

It truly is a gigantic system, although it lacks convection and tenacity. Take a look at the Atlantic wide-view shot where you can see the circulation envelope of ex-97 is about as large as the Gulf of Mexico

[Ed Mahmoud]

Posted a couple of pages back, upward motion/MJO isn't currently favorable for development.

Not that it means it can't happen, just somewhat less likely.

[Cyclone1]

Geez, that is a huge circulation... And if it's on NRL, why are we posting here?

[RL3AO]

Yep Ed. Wave is currently in favorable MJO conditions, but that will change over the next few days.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Speaking of dry air and subsidence...

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm going to go out on a huge limb here, and unofficially predict this won't be 'Edouard' in the next 3 days.

[hial2]

I'm going to go out on a huge limb here, and unofficially predict this won't be 'Edouard' in the next 3 days.

Proud of you, Ed..."A small step for man,a giant leap for Ed".. J/K

Actually Ed you have more internal fortitude than I have...this is turning out to be a crazy year to prognosticate..I remember reading respected pros saying that "D" had no chance to develop,and we all know what happened..at least this will be an interesting year (hopefully NOT memorable).

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 241746
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DOLLY...CENTERED ABOUT 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAREDO TEXAS.

A LARGE WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...IS LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL
EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 700 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS VERY LIMITED AT THIS TIME AND SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

From the 2 PM discussion:

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W S OF 23N MOVING W
NEAR 20 KT. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AND A 1012 MB LOW IS ADDED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
14N. THIS LOW IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO MOVE WNW
DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS VERY LIMITED AT
THIS TIME AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE WAVE SHOWS UP VERY
WELL ON THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS WHERE A LARGE BULGE OF
MOISTURE IS OBSERVED. IN ADDITION...THE 850 MB RELATIVE
VORTICITY ALSO SUPPORTS THE PRESENCE OF THIS SFC LOW. TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE ATLC SFC HIGH WILL PRODUCE SOME
INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

[HUC]

Just a question: the N R L site dont't work????

[RL3AO]

Just a question: the N R L site dont't work????

Works fine for me.

[HUC]

I will close my computer, and resart... and see Thank.

[Gustywind]

Hi HUC i've got the same problem it does not work = http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html ???

[HURAKAN]

It's working just fine for me!