Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 91L)

[HURAKAN]

And if anything tries to form at the surface, it will be pushed northward.

[dixiebreeze]

Sort of surprised there's not even a Tropical Disturbance STatement issued yet. Guess the NHC is not impressed.

[HURAKAN]

Sort of surprised there's not even a Tropical Disturbance STatement issued yet. Guess the NHC is not impressed.

Why surprised? There's not even a LLC associated with the convection. It should just die out as the day progresses.

[Stormcenter]

Sort of surprised there's not even a Tropical Disturbance STatement issued yet. Guess the NHC is not impressed.

I agree. I've seen a lot worse looking disturbances with no center of circulation get more attention from the NHC. It's not like there is a lot out there keeping them busy. Anyway other then what's out in the GOM it's dead out there and I hope it stays that way.

[boca]

Sort of surprised there's not even a Tropical Disturbance STatement issued yet. Guess the NHC is not impressed.

Why surprised? There's not even a LLC associated with the convection. It should just die out as the day progresses.

In my opinion I don't think this is one of those times were its going to die out. Although 90% of the time I would agree with you. Their is a mid level circulation thats why I give it some chance of making it to the surface.

[eyesurvivor]

On radar I see what I think to be a slight counter clockwise spin in one area. However, this is probably caused by areas of clouds dying out and then reforming in areas slightly to the left. That's my spin on the matter.

[SouthFloridawx]

On radar I see what I think to be a slight counter clockwise spin in one area. However, this is probably caused by areas of clouds dying out and then reforming in areas slightly to the left. That's my spin on the matter.

No pun intended of course...

[Comanche]

from Jeff Lindner this morning-

Tropics:



MCS that moved off the NE Gulf coast Sunday has spawned a mid level low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico about 180 miles S of New Orleans, LA. IR satellite images reveal a well defined circulation. Surface pressures have fallen slightly in the past 24 hours. Radar out of New Orleans shows heavy thunderstorms north of the mid level center moving NW while it appears that the center itself is either stationary or drifting WNW.



While it takes time for mid level system to work their way to the surface…it has happened before and in fact this is how Hurricane Alicia formed in 1983. There is no model support for this system…however it bears watching. Dolly and Humberto both have showed how quickly systems can spin up in the Gulf.

[Stormcenter]

from Jeff Lindner this morning-

Tropics:



MCS that moved off the NE Gulf coast Sunday has spawned a mid level low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico about 180 miles S of New Orleans, LA. IR satellite images reveal a well defined circulation. Surface pressures have fallen slightly in the past 24 hours. Radar out of New Orleans shows heavy thunderstorms north of the mid level center moving NW while it appears that the center itself is either stationary or drifting WNW.



While it takes time for mid level system to work their way to the surface…it has happened before and in fact this is how Hurricane Alicia formed in 1983. There is no model support for this system…however it bears watching. Dolly and Humberto both have showed how quickly systems can spin up in the Gulf.

No surprise to read this from Lindner.....but I am surprised others besides the few that have on this board haven't mentioned the possibility.

[ColdFusion]

Not much left in the way of cold cloud tops, looks like its losing its punch.

[Steve]

Woke up around 4:45 and went outside. You could see the low level deck down in the Gulf and almost constant lightning going off. Was pretty black/grey this morning driving out of the Bayous and caught numerous heavy rainfall along the way. Assumed it was at the mid or upper levels as the showers were at the coast or in the Gulf this morning and moved on land early in the morning. Still cloudy, drizzly and a little breezy (7-12mph?) in the CBD. Looks like a lot of rain offshore and the edge of the comma (related?) across Florida. I'm not thinking anything tropical, but if the system itself retrogrades or migrates toward the west and is still able to squeeze out some rainfall for SW LA/SE TX, that's probably a good thing.

JMO

Steve

[HURAKAN]

Most of the strong convection is over land.

[Steve]

But most of the shower activity remains offshore:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

[T-man]

Thought you guys might enjoy what the squall looked like as it approached the crescent city this morning. I work nights, and I too watched the light show on the GOM early this morning. A heavy downpour ensued shortly after I took the picture.

[Kennethb]

All reporting stations in south Louisiana reporting SW, W to NW and even calm winds. Would need consistent N to NE winds to support any decent low level circulation:


N.O. AUDUBON MISG
N.O. INTL ARPT CALM
N.O. LAKEFRONT NW9
SLIDELL SW5
BELLE CHASSE CALM
BATON ROUGE VRB5
SALT POINT CALM
BOOTHVILLE W7

SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
LAKE CHARLES W6G18
LAFAYETTE NW8
PATTERSON CALM
NEW IBERIA W9
CHENAULT AIRPK SW7
HIGH ISLAND S2

[srainhoutx]

Hmmm...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=luml1

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=trbl1

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=taml1

[RL3AO]

Not even mentioned in new TWO.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Not even mentioned in new TWO.

Every time I see TWO all i can think of is the 2'oclock...

[Sanibel]

TWC says pressure is rising. See if it persists.

[Kludge]

Not even mentioned in new TWO.

Seems our blob gets no respect. Maybe we should call it "dangerfield".

I've had less than a half inch of rain in the last 2 weeks...so though I don't want a storm out of this, I'm certainly not w*shcasting for 'poof-ation' either.