ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[tailgater]

Cloud tops warming, we could have some poofage if it doesn't start refiring T-storms.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[k4sdi]

Which is most reliable to most of you out there, BAMM, BAMD, or LBAR?

My personal favorite is the EXTRAP model.

We really need an emoticon for sarcasm,.,,,,

[MiamiensisWx]

Actually, the EXTRAP is an ideal, unmatched verification tool.

EXTRAP - Extrapolation of current movement

[LaBreeze]

I'm with you on this one, MiamaiensisWx. Westward seems to be, beacause this High is so strong. Unbelieveable how hot it is here along the coast. 99 is my reading here - not sure what the heat index is - for sure 105 or better.

[Stratosphere747]

Cloud tops warming, we could have some poofage if it doesn't start refiring T-storms.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

WV imagery isn't reflective of "poofage."

It's still maintaining and building rather decent convection.

[HouTXmetro]

Cloud tops warming, we could have some poofage if it doesn't start refiring T-storms.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

I was waiting on that to happen

[SouthFloridawx]

Which is most reliable to most of you out there, BAMM, BAMD, or LBAR?

My personal favorite is the EXTRAP model.

We really need an emoticon for sarcasm,.,,,,

Oh yeah... sorry...

[Air Force Met]

AFM what's your preliminary take on the future of this system.

My very preliminary take is a strong TS(60mph+)/Cat 1 into the central TX coast....near Matagorda...as far south as Rockport and as far north as GLS.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I agree, the High to the north just doesn't seem to budge much.

[Dean4Storms]

Everyone along the Gulf Coast from the FL Panhandle westward should stay up to date on this developing low. The westward movement clear to TX. is not written in Stone, heck the models didn't get a good handle on Dolly till she was a TS. A weakness in the ridge could change everything.

[MiamiensisWx]

This year has certainly been a "banner season" in terms of TC strikes/threats for Texas.

There will be no weakness at the mid/upper levels over the next several days as well.

[paintplaye]

AFM what's your preliminary take on the future of this system.

My very preliminary take is a strong TS(60mph+)/Cat 1 into the central TX coast....near Matagorda...as far south as Rockport and as far north as GLS.

If this thing hits matagorda and it is stronger than a strong TS/cat1 then Houston could be in some trouble.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This year has certainly been a "banner season" in terms of TC strikes/threats for Texas.

I agree. If a strong low rider formed like 90L in tracked across the lower caribbean it would more then likely not recurve to the north like Ivan did, but go for Texas this year as a major. Of course this is just a wishcast and has nothing in truth. This one is worth watching but I would give it another 24 hours, with soild support of a LLC before I would start forecasting a strong tropical storm or hurricanes. But I've learned to lean towards the low end of things.

[MiamiensisWx]

If this thing hits matagorda and it is stronger than a strong TS/cat1 then Houston could be in some trouble.

Actually, I believe that is incorrect. It depends on the wind radii's size and aereal extent (instead of intensity/strength).

Let's wait for a defined LLC...

[Diva]

My very preliminary take is a strong TS(60mph+)/Cat 1 into the central TX coast....near Matagorda...as far south as Rockport and as far north as GLS.

So you think this unbearably hot high pressure will stay in place and protect us up here in on the TX/LA border from a direct hit? I'd love some clouds and rain though.

[Steve]

Slightly breezy out of the SW/WSW with the clouds moving down from the NNE in Central Lafourche. The winds aren't really indicative of anything, but there's an obvious "interuption in the flow" when the clouds are moving in from the North or NNE and it's not outflow in the summatime.

Steve

[weatherrabbit_tx]

me too d, hope this thing gives us more rain then dolly did north of 10 or should I say north of hwy 105

[GeneratorPower]

GFS takes it into Port Arthur, TX.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

EDIT: Closer inspection looks like between Galveston, TX and Port Arthur, TX. GFS keeps it weak.

[stevetampa33614]

taking on a Coma shape, cyclogenesis is probably occurring. Looks really good on enhanced rainow. Suprised models were picking up on this last week already but werent sure of the size or movement. Quicksat back yet?

Bouys had been reading consistent 15+ kt wind speeds. But with no closed LLC. No dice.

SSD showing winter storm warning over biloxi

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looking at WV, it has got dry air to its North, but heaviest storms embedded in better mid/upper moisture, so until it reaches a certain strength, it won't pull the dry air in in appreciable quantity.

Upper low near Isle of Youth looks to help more than hurt, setting up a nice outflow jet that should more than make up for whatever shear it might be inducing.

Finally, 91L seems to be building a hint of an anticyclone aloft, with a bit of the more humid air pushing back into the dry air.



However, if Joe Bastardi says 1000 mb is his upper limit, well, I don't know that I have ever seen him underforecast a tropical system.


He is on a family road trip, with some business, so he may be spending less than his usual time analyzing weather, so I'd pay close attention to the pro-mets, and especially TPC.