ATL: Tropical Storm Edouard Model Runs

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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs

#21 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 02, 2008 8:12 pm

WHXX01 KWBC 030109
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0109 UTC SUN AUG 3 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912008) 20080803 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080803 0000 080803 1200 080804 0000 080804 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.0N 87.0W 28.5N 88.1W 28.1N 89.4W 28.0N 91.4W
BAMD 29.0N 87.0W 27.9N 87.9W 27.3N 89.3W 27.1N 91.0W
BAMM 29.0N 87.0W 28.2N 88.2W 27.6N 90.0W 27.2N 92.2W
LBAR 29.0N 87.0W 28.1N 87.5W 28.2N 88.6W 28.5N 90.2W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 37KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080805 0000 080806 0000 080807 0000 080808 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.2N 93.2W 29.8N 96.9W 31.5N 100.0W 33.3N 102.0W
BAMD 27.5N 93.1W 29.5N 97.4W 31.1N 101.5W 32.1N 105.3W
BAMM 27.5N 94.4W 28.7N 98.5W 30.1N 102.3W 31.5N 105.6W
LBAR 28.8N 92.1W 29.5N 96.2W 30.8N 98.2W 31.3N 97.8W
SHIP 45KTS 52KTS 57KTS 57KTS
DSHP 45KTS 35KTS 28KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.0N LONCUR = 87.0W DIRCUR = 170DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 30.3N LONM12 = 87.1W DIRM12 = 169DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 31.1N LONM24 = 87.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

Image
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs

#22 Postby Duddy » Sat Aug 02, 2008 8:12 pm

LaBreeze wrote:Matagorda - wondering why so many others are saying SE TX, when Matagorda is the central TX coast. I'm with you, Ed - I'm thinking Corpus to Matagorda.


SWEET! I live in Matagorda in Bay City!!!!

The day is mine!!!

EDIT: I don't want the 18% chance of RI to manifest though. Rita sucked. I cried.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs

#23 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 02, 2008 8:17 pm

Code: Select all

ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL912008  08/03/08  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    22    24    28    30    37    45    51    52    54    57    58    57
V (KT) LAND       20    22    24    28    30    37    45    51    35    29    28    27    27
V (KT) LGE mod    20    20    21    22    23    25    29    32    28    27    27    27    27

SHEAR (KTS)        8    13    12     6     4     4    11    10     7    12     4    18    15
SHEAR DIR        347   314   335   326   301   353   164    97   148   113   239    71   108
SST (C)         29.2  29.2  29.1  29.2  29.3  29.3  29.1  28.3  28.6  29.1  29.0  28.3  27.0
POT. INT. (KT)   153   154   152   154   156   157   153   141   145   153   151   140   123
ADJ. POT. INT.   129   131   131   134   137   138   135   123   126   132   129   119   103
200 MB T (C)   -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.8 -53.5
TH_E DEV (C)      14    11    10    14    15    10    13     8    12     8    12     8    11
700-500 MB RH     44    41    47    50    49    48    49    51    52    56    60    55    59
GFS VTEX (KT)      5     6     8     9     9     9    10    10     5     2  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR   -55   -77   -58   -40   -50   -47   -37   -32     0     5     2     1     2
200 MB DIV        20     9    -7   -29    -6     3   -14     0    -3    -2   -14   -10     3
LAND (KM)        161   173   146   134   166   251   174    34  -161  -356  -554  -697  -619
LAT (DEG N)     29.0  28.6  28.2  27.9  27.6  27.2  27.5  27.9  28.7  29.4  30.1  30.8  31.5
LONG(DEG W)     87.0  87.6  88.2  89.1  90.0  92.2  94.4  96.5  98.5 100.4 102.3 104.1 105.6
STM SPEED (KT)     6     7     7     8     9    10    10     9    10     9     9     8     7
HEAT CONTENT      40    37    41    34    29    55    39     6  9999  9999  9999  9999  9999

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/  6      CX,CY:   1/ -5
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  557  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  29.0 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  51.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   1.   4.  10.  17.  22.  27.  31.  34.  36.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   4.   6.   8.  11.  13.  15.  15.  15.  16.  15.  14.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.  -1.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -4.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       1.   4.   7.  10.  17.  25.  31.  33.  36.  39.  40.  40.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   0.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      2.   5.   8.  10.  17.  25.  31.  32.  34.  37.  38.  37.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912008     INVEST 08/03/08  00 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   8.7 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.3
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  -2.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.2
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 112.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.0
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  60.8 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.1
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  20.4 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.6
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  36.2 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    19% is   1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    12% is   1.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     7% is   1.5 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912008     INVEST 08/03/08  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY 
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs

#24 Postby dixiebreeze » Sat Aug 02, 2008 8:21 pm

Here we go....

02/2345 UTC 27.7N 88.8W T1.0/1.0 91L -- Atlantic Ocean
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs

#25 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Aug 02, 2008 8:31 pm

1) Art Monk is all class. I was never a Skins fan, but I am watching his Hall of Fame speech on ESPN.


2) First European to South Texas had the family name 'Cabeza de Baca/Vaca'. Mis suegros are from Mexico, and, golly, barbacoa is better than brisket, but that is an unfortunate family name. Thought came to me after 'Matagorda' question.

Back on topic, per 18Z GFS, this system stays less than purely tropical...
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs

#26 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sat Aug 02, 2008 9:29 pm

The 0Z Nam which isn't to bad with weaker Tropical systems has landfall near or just north of Port Lavaca Tuesday.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs

#27 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 02, 2008 10:22 pm

For those who may not know,the black line in the graphic represents the mostion of the system at the time the run was made.

Image

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs

#28 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Aug 02, 2008 10:57 pm

GFS, not quite closed, but a glorious rain maker, welcomed by all in SE Texas.
Image

Landfall, if one can call it that, near TX/LA line...

Image
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs

#29 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Aug 02, 2008 10:58 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:The 0Z Nam which isn't to bad with weaker Tropical systems has landfall near or just north of Port Lavaca Tuesday.


Image
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs

#30 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sun Aug 03, 2008 12:14 am

0Z Canadian looks like 12Z Canadian, with beneficial rain moving into Texas...


Image
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs

#31 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sun Aug 03, 2008 2:21 am

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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs

#32 Postby physicx07 » Sun Aug 03, 2008 3:21 am

LOL! You are a sick man. Just cuz you said that Jim Cantore is going to come to your town and ruin it all!!! :lol:

Duddy wrote:
The day is mine!!!

EDIT: I don't want the 18% chance of RI to manifest though. Rita sucked. I cried.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs

#33 Postby physicx07 » Sun Aug 03, 2008 3:26 am

Wow, that things going places fast! It's practically in NM by day 4.

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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs

#34 Postby Honeyko » Sun Aug 03, 2008 4:34 am

With that slant angle into landfall, this system isn't going to suck a single ounce of dry air out of southwest Texas before hitting the coast.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs

#35 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sun Aug 03, 2008 7:16 am

6Z NAM
Image


6Z GFS says it should be a depression right now. Obs do not seem to agree.
Image

6Z GFS loses even that, eventually. But look at that rain!
Image

Again, 'landfall' near TX/LA line. (Landfall in quotes as GFS doesn't have an actual TC)
Image
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs

#36 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sun Aug 03, 2008 7:20 am

6Z GFDL- strong tropical storm landfall near San Luis Pass. (A small area of hurricane force winds, but at 35 meters, and offshore)
Image
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs

#37 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sun Aug 03, 2008 7:22 am

Code: Select all

 
 
   

WHXX01 KWBC 030622 

CHGHUR 

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE 

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 

0622 UTC SUN AUG 3 2008 

   

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. 

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. 

   

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR 

   

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912008) 20080803 0600 UTC 

   

        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS... 

        080803  0600   080803  1800   080804  0600   080804  1800 

   

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON 

BAMS    28.5N  87.4W   28.0N  88.6W   27.4N  90.3W   27.8N  92.2W 

BAMD    28.5N  87.4W   27.6N  88.7W   27.1N  90.4W   27.2N  92.5W 

BAMM    28.5N  87.4W   27.9N  88.9W   27.5N  90.9W   27.6N  93.4W 

LBAR    28.5N  87.4W   27.7N  88.2W   27.7N  89.8W   27.8N  92.0W 

SHIP        20KTS          24KTS          30KTS          38KTS 

DSHP        20KTS          24KTS          30KTS          38KTS 

   

        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS... 

        080805  0600   080806  0600   080807  0600   080808  0600 

   

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON 

BAMS    28.2N  94.1W   30.3N  97.6W   32.6N  99.5W   33.4N 100.1W 

BAMD    27.9N  94.7W   29.7N  99.2W   31.1N 103.1W   32.3N 106.6W 

BAMM    28.0N  95.5W   29.6N  99.8W   31.1N 103.2W   32.4N 106.4W 

LBAR    28.3N  94.3W   29.4N  99.4W   30.0N 103.8W   31.3N 106.3W 

SHIP        42KTS          50KTS          56KTS          56KTS 

DSHP        42KTS          29KTS          27KTS          27KTS 

   

         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... 

LATCUR =  28.5N LONCUR =  87.4W DIRCUR = 200DEG SPDCUR =   6KT 

LATM12 =  29.5N LONM12 =  87.0W DIRM12 = 176DEG SPDM12 =   7KT 

LATM24 =  30.9N LONM24 =  87.3W 

WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   20NM WNDM12 =   20KT 

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  120NM SDEPTH =   M 

RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM 

   

$$ 

NNNN
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs

#38 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 03, 2008 7:56 am

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 031250
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1250 UTC SUN AUG 3 2008
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912008) 20080803 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        080803  1200   080804  0000   080804  1200   080805  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    28.4N  87.0W   27.8N  88.0W   27.7N  89.9W   28.0N  91.7W
BAMD    28.4N  87.0W   28.0N  88.3W   28.1N  90.2W   28.6N  92.5W
BAMM    28.4N  87.0W   28.0N  88.4W   28.0N  90.6W   28.5N  92.9W
LBAR    28.4N  87.0W   28.1N  87.8W   28.4N  89.4W   29.0N  91.4W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          36KTS          42KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          36KTS          42KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        080805  1200   080806  1200   080807  1200   080808  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    29.0N  93.8W   31.5N  96.8W   32.9N  97.6W   33.0N  97.0W
BAMD    29.5N  94.8W   31.1N  99.3W   32.3N 103.0W   34.0N 105.8W
BAMM    29.2N  95.3W   31.0N  99.5W   32.4N 102.5W   33.7N 104.2W
LBAR    29.6N  93.5W   30.8N  97.3W   31.0N  98.8W   30.9N  97.6W
SHIP        46KTS          50KTS          50KTS          46KTS
DSHP        41KTS          28KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  28.4N LONCUR =  87.0W DIRCUR = 180DEG SPDCUR =   3KT
LATM12 =  29.0N LONM12 =  87.0W DIRM12 = 180DEG SPDM12 =   4KT
LATM24 =  30.3N LONM24 =  87.1W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN
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wxman57
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs

#39 Postby wxman57 » Sun Aug 03, 2008 8:35 am

Here's a plot of the 12Z models. Note the northward shift overnight. I still think landfall will be upper TX coast to SW LA, not mid TX coast. Early model runs are almost always too far south/left in the Gulf.

Image
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KWT
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#40 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 03, 2008 8:43 am

thats true wxman57 the models usually are too far west though at least for now the high is pretty strong still so we will have to see...without a proper center for the models to latch onto we can't really take the models exact forecasts too seriously but the trend is the key here.
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