ATL: Tropical Storm Edouard Model Runs
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs
WHXX01 KWBC 030109
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0109 UTC SUN AUG 3 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912008) 20080803 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080803 0000 080803 1200 080804 0000 080804 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.0N 87.0W 28.5N 88.1W 28.1N 89.4W 28.0N 91.4W
BAMD 29.0N 87.0W 27.9N 87.9W 27.3N 89.3W 27.1N 91.0W
BAMM 29.0N 87.0W 28.2N 88.2W 27.6N 90.0W 27.2N 92.2W
LBAR 29.0N 87.0W 28.1N 87.5W 28.2N 88.6W 28.5N 90.2W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 37KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 37KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080805 0000 080806 0000 080807 0000 080808 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.2N 93.2W 29.8N 96.9W 31.5N 100.0W 33.3N 102.0W
BAMD 27.5N 93.1W 29.5N 97.4W 31.1N 101.5W 32.1N 105.3W
BAMM 27.5N 94.4W 28.7N 98.5W 30.1N 102.3W 31.5N 105.6W
LBAR 28.8N 92.1W 29.5N 96.2W 30.8N 98.2W 31.3N 97.8W
SHIP 45KTS 52KTS 57KTS 57KTS
DSHP 45KTS 35KTS 28KTS 27KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.0N LONCUR = 87.0W DIRCUR = 170DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 30.3N LONM12 = 87.1W DIRM12 = 169DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 31.1N LONM24 = 87.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0109 UTC SUN AUG 3 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912008) 20080803 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080803 0000 080803 1200 080804 0000 080804 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.0N 87.0W 28.5N 88.1W 28.1N 89.4W 28.0N 91.4W
BAMD 29.0N 87.0W 27.9N 87.9W 27.3N 89.3W 27.1N 91.0W
BAMM 29.0N 87.0W 28.2N 88.2W 27.6N 90.0W 27.2N 92.2W
LBAR 29.0N 87.0W 28.1N 87.5W 28.2N 88.6W 28.5N 90.2W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 37KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 37KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080805 0000 080806 0000 080807 0000 080808 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.2N 93.2W 29.8N 96.9W 31.5N 100.0W 33.3N 102.0W
BAMD 27.5N 93.1W 29.5N 97.4W 31.1N 101.5W 32.1N 105.3W
BAMM 27.5N 94.4W 28.7N 98.5W 30.1N 102.3W 31.5N 105.6W
LBAR 28.8N 92.1W 29.5N 96.2W 30.8N 98.2W 31.3N 97.8W
SHIP 45KTS 52KTS 57KTS 57KTS
DSHP 45KTS 35KTS 28KTS 27KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.0N LONCUR = 87.0W DIRCUR = 170DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 30.3N LONM12 = 87.1W DIRM12 = 169DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 31.1N LONM24 = 87.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs
LaBreeze wrote:Matagorda - wondering why so many others are saying SE TX, when Matagorda is the central TX coast. I'm with you, Ed - I'm thinking Corpus to Matagorda.
SWEET! I live in Matagorda in Bay City!!!!
The day is mine!!!
EDIT: I don't want the 18% chance of RI to manifest though. Rita sucked. I cried.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs
Code: Select all
ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL912008 08/03/08 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 28 30 37 45 51 52 54 57 58 57
V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 28 30 37 45 51 35 29 28 27 27
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 29 32 28 27 27 27 27
SHEAR (KTS) 8 13 12 6 4 4 11 10 7 12 4 18 15
SHEAR DIR 347 314 335 326 301 353 164 97 148 113 239 71 108
SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.3 28.6 29.1 29.0 28.3 27.0
POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 152 154 156 157 153 141 145 153 151 140 123
ADJ. POT. INT. 129 131 131 134 137 138 135 123 126 132 129 119 103
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.8 -53.5
TH_E DEV (C) 14 11 10 14 15 10 13 8 12 8 12 8 11
700-500 MB RH 44 41 47 50 49 48 49 51 52 56 60 55 59
GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 8 9 9 9 10 10 5 2 LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -55 -77 -58 -40 -50 -47 -37 -32 0 5 2 1 2
200 MB DIV 20 9 -7 -29 -6 3 -14 0 -3 -2 -14 -10 3
LAND (KM) 161 173 146 134 166 251 174 34 -161 -356 -554 -697 -619
LAT (DEG N) 29.0 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.2 27.5 27.9 28.7 29.4 30.1 30.8 31.5
LONG(DEG W) 87.0 87.6 88.2 89.1 90.0 92.2 94.4 96.5 98.5 100.4 102.3 104.1 105.6
STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 7
HEAT CONTENT 40 37 41 34 29 55 39 6 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ -5
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=68.6)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 22. 27. 31. 34. 36.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. 16. 15. 14.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 17. 25. 31. 33. 36. 39. 40. 40.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 10. 17. 25. 31. 32. 34. 37. 38. 37.
** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912008 INVEST 08/03/08 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912008 INVEST 08/03/08 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
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- dixiebreeze
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs
Here we go....
02/2345 UTC 27.7N 88.8W T1.0/1.0 91L -- Atlantic Ocean
02/2345 UTC 27.7N 88.8W T1.0/1.0 91L -- Atlantic Ocean
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs
1) Art Monk is all class. I was never a Skins fan, but I am watching his Hall of Fame speech on ESPN.
2) First European to South Texas had the family name 'Cabeza de Baca/Vaca'. Mis suegros are from Mexico, and, golly, barbacoa is better than brisket, but that is an unfortunate family name. Thought came to me after 'Matagorda' question.
Back on topic, per 18Z GFS, this system stays less than purely tropical...
2) First European to South Texas had the family name 'Cabeza de Baca/Vaca'. Mis suegros are from Mexico, and, golly, barbacoa is better than brisket, but that is an unfortunate family name. Thought came to me after 'Matagorda' question.
Back on topic, per 18Z GFS, this system stays less than purely tropical...
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- KFDM Meteorologist
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs
The 0Z Nam which isn't to bad with weaker Tropical systems has landfall near or just north of Port Lavaca Tuesday.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs
For those who may not know,the black line in the graphic represents the mostion of the system at the time the run was made.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs
GFS, not quite closed, but a glorious rain maker, welcomed by all in SE Texas.
Landfall, if one can call it that, near TX/LA line...
Landfall, if one can call it that, near TX/LA line...
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs
KFDM Meteorologist wrote:The 0Z Nam which isn't to bad with weaker Tropical systems has landfall near or just north of Port Lavaca Tuesday.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs
0Z Canadian looks like 12Z Canadian, with beneficial rain moving into Texas...
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs
LOL! You are a sick man. Just cuz you said that Jim Cantore is going to come to your town and ruin it all!!!
Duddy wrote:
The day is mine!!!
EDIT: I don't want the 18% chance of RI to manifest though. Rita sucked. I cried.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs
Wow, that things going places fast! It's practically in NM by day 4.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs
With that slant angle into landfall, this system isn't going to suck a single ounce of dry air out of southwest Texas before hitting the coast.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs
6Z NAM
6Z GFS says it should be a depression right now. Obs do not seem to agree.
6Z GFS loses even that, eventually. But look at that rain!
Again, 'landfall' near TX/LA line. (Landfall in quotes as GFS doesn't have an actual TC)
6Z GFS says it should be a depression right now. Obs do not seem to agree.
6Z GFS loses even that, eventually. But look at that rain!
Again, 'landfall' near TX/LA line. (Landfall in quotes as GFS doesn't have an actual TC)
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs
6Z GFDL- strong tropical storm landfall near San Luis Pass. (A small area of hurricane force winds, but at 35 meters, and offshore)
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 030622
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0622 UTC SUN AUG 3 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912008) 20080803 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080803 0600 080803 1800 080804 0600 080804 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.5N 87.4W 28.0N 88.6W 27.4N 90.3W 27.8N 92.2W
BAMD 28.5N 87.4W 27.6N 88.7W 27.1N 90.4W 27.2N 92.5W
BAMM 28.5N 87.4W 27.9N 88.9W 27.5N 90.9W 27.6N 93.4W
LBAR 28.5N 87.4W 27.7N 88.2W 27.7N 89.8W 27.8N 92.0W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 38KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080805 0600 080806 0600 080807 0600 080808 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.2N 94.1W 30.3N 97.6W 32.6N 99.5W 33.4N 100.1W
BAMD 27.9N 94.7W 29.7N 99.2W 31.1N 103.1W 32.3N 106.6W
BAMM 28.0N 95.5W 29.6N 99.8W 31.1N 103.2W 32.4N 106.4W
LBAR 28.3N 94.3W 29.4N 99.4W 30.0N 103.8W 31.3N 106.3W
SHIP 42KTS 50KTS 56KTS 56KTS
DSHP 42KTS 29KTS 27KTS 27KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.5N LONCUR = 87.4W DIRCUR = 200DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 29.5N LONM12 = 87.0W DIRM12 = 176DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 30.9N LONM24 = 87.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 031250
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1250 UTC SUN AUG 3 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912008) 20080803 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080803 1200 080804 0000 080804 1200 080805 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.4N 87.0W 27.8N 88.0W 27.7N 89.9W 28.0N 91.7W
BAMD 28.4N 87.0W 28.0N 88.3W 28.1N 90.2W 28.6N 92.5W
BAMM 28.4N 87.0W 28.0N 88.4W 28.0N 90.6W 28.5N 92.9W
LBAR 28.4N 87.0W 28.1N 87.8W 28.4N 89.4W 29.0N 91.4W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080805 1200 080806 1200 080807 1200 080808 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.0N 93.8W 31.5N 96.8W 32.9N 97.6W 33.0N 97.0W
BAMD 29.5N 94.8W 31.1N 99.3W 32.3N 103.0W 34.0N 105.8W
BAMM 29.2N 95.3W 31.0N 99.5W 32.4N 102.5W 33.7N 104.2W
LBAR 29.6N 93.5W 30.8N 97.3W 31.0N 98.8W 30.9N 97.6W
SHIP 46KTS 50KTS 50KTS 46KTS
DSHP 41KTS 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.4N LONCUR = 87.0W DIRCUR = 180DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 29.0N LONM12 = 87.0W DIRM12 = 180DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 30.3N LONM24 = 87.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L Model Runs
Here's a plot of the 12Z models. Note the northward shift overnight. I still think landfall will be upper TX coast to SW LA, not mid TX coast. Early model runs are almost always too far south/left in the Gulf.
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