ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[Ed Mahmoud]

Re: question- I think I know answer, Canadian and NAM, and Joe Bastardi, with ballpark 1000 mb 40 or 50 knot storm as worst case, somewhere between Intracoastal City and Corpus Christi, but since Monday will be a hectic panic if this develops, and I think I'm pretty good, but no expert, I figured if this is the civilization changing event ie, Bastardi under-predicting a tropical cyclone, I'd better get some pro-met concensus before I just kick back and relax tomorrow....

[KWT]

Well until we get a circulation going all estimates are going to have obviously taken with a pinch of salt simply because it could form just about anywhere in that convective mess and that would make a fair difference.

This looks like being the main player for the next 72hrs IMO for the USA to watch, the high should continue to send this mess southwards for now.

[LaBreeze]

I heard a local met mention that the high should start a move to the east. Does anyone know if this may be the case and, if so, how soon?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Re: question- I think I know answer, Canadian and NAM, and Joe Bastardi, with ballpark 1000 mb 40 or 50 knot storm as worst case, somewhere between Intracoastal City and Corpus Christi, but since Monday will be a hectic panic if this develops, and I think I'm pretty good, but no expert, I figured if this is the civilization changing event ie, Bastardi under-predicting a tropical cyclone, I'd better get some pro-met concensus before I just kick back and relax tomorrow....

Derek didn't offer a specific answer as what the limit is, but suggested Bastardi may have, possibly, underforecasted, for the first time ever, a tropical cyclone.

Stay tuned...

[MiamiensisWx]

I heard a local met mention that the high should start a move to the east. Does anyone know if this may be the case and, if so, how soon?

It's expanding east as we speak. As evidenced on satellite imagery, the system and associated surface low will move slowly SW.

500-850 mb streamline analysis from CIMSS:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.html

[SouthFloridawx]

Tropical Depression tomorrow, Tropical Storm by Monday.

[NDG]

I am not impressed by this system at all, at least tonight I am not. To think that this is not getting a northerly ML shear would be incorrect, IMO. There is a reason why lowest pressures are found well north of the convection tonight.

[Stormcenter]

I am not impressed by this system at all, at least tonight I am not. To think that this is not getting a northerly ML shear would be incorrect, IMO. There is a reason why lowest pressures are found well north of the convection tonight.

There is no reason to be "impressed" it's not even a depression yet.

[fasterdisaster]

I am not impressed by this system at all, at least tonight I am not. To think that this is not getting a northerly ML shear would be incorrect, IMO. There is a reason why lowest pressures are found well north of the convection tonight.

Yes because every invest has its lowest pressures in the convection.

[americanrebel]

haven't paid attention to the weather the past few days and we now have 3 investments, wow. Hopefully none of these do anything crazy.

[NDG]

I am not impressed by this system at all, at least tonight I am not. To think that this is not getting a northerly ML shear would be incorrect, IMO. There is a reason why lowest pressures are found well north of the convection tonight.

There is no reason to be "impressed" it's not even a depression yet.

It doesn't even have surface convergence and not even a broad surface circulation centered over water anymore. NE mid level winds keep pushing moisture southward away from lowest surface pressures.

[HURAKAN]

[canetracker]

91L sure is lacking convergence.

[Sanibel]

Cristobal also formed from a stalled front hanging over the Gulf. Lots of latent GOM heat there touching it off.

The season is starting to turn the corner towards primetime. Lots of humidity for storm fuel.

Any chance of this kicking out NE between the Highs?

[Stormcenter]

I am not impressed by this system at all, at least tonight I am not. To think that this is not getting a northerly ML shear would be incorrect, IMO. There is a reason why lowest pressures are found well north of the convection tonight.

There is no reason to be "impressed" it's not even a depression yet.

It doesn't even have surface convergence and not even a broad surface circulation centered over water anymore. NE mid level winds keep pushing moisture southward away from lowest surface pressures.

I still expect it to develop.

[NDG]

Cristobal also formed from a stalled front hanging over the Gulf. Lots of latent GOM heat there touching it off.

The season is starting to turn the corner towards primetime. Lots of humidity for storm fuel.

Any chance of this kicking out NE between the Highs?

Very little chance of kicking NE, building ridge to the north will push this mess eventually Wesward.

[paintplaye]

I am not impressed by this system at all, at least tonight I am not. To think that this is not getting a northerly ML shear would be incorrect, IMO. There is a reason why lowest pressures are found well north of the convection tonight.

There is no reason to be "impressed" it's not even a depression yet.

It doesn't even have surface convergence and not even a broad surface circulation centered over water anymore. NE mid level winds keep pushing moisture southward away from lowest surface pressures.

I still expect it to develop.[/quote]

Ya Dolly did the same thing. It did have more time to do that stuff, but shear is not bad, temps are great, this storms only big problem is how much time it has on water. So it might do that stuff but it will get its act together. Probably tomm.

[NDG]

There is no reason to be "impressed" it's not even a depression yet.

It doesn't even have surface convergence and not even a broad surface circulation centered over water anymore. NE mid level winds keep pushing moisture southward away from lowest surface pressures.

I still expect it to develop.

I am not saying it would not, but I don't see it happening tonight or tomorrow as some are thinking. Maybe on Monday.

[Sanibel]

Could have an elongated center on shortwave.

[tolakram]

Buoy data ...




http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42039

Note that pressures are rising at both locations now. I assume this is the regular daily up and down, but if something was forming I would expect pressures to be more steady or falling.