Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

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KWT
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#601 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 03, 2008 8:12 am

So its picked up 0.2 degrees in latitude recently, not all that surprising given the heavier convection now in place compared to before. It seems like when it loses convection it track slightly south of west, when it gains convection it probably taps into a slightly higher steering current which takes it a little to the north of west.

Also now to the south of Bertha's track.
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Re: ATL: Invest 99L in Central Atlantic

#602 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Aug 03, 2008 8:21 am

Latest steering currents for weak systems: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html
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Re: ATL: Invest 99L in Central Atlantic

#603 Postby Sanibel » Sun Aug 03, 2008 8:31 am

That's exactly the steering I figured from the WV loop. Recurve before US. There's a weak ULL to its NW right now in tandem west.

Has that sleeper Andrew look but too early with no US steering pattern.

Other African wave to SE dissipated.
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Re: ATL: Invest 99L in Central Atlantic

#604 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 03, 2008 8:39 am

If I'm reading the TAFB correctly, it shows 99L's low near the NE Caribbean in 24 hours, not consistent w/ the models.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

Then into PR as a wave in 48 hours.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

Then S of Cuba in 72 hours.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif
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#605 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 03, 2008 8:48 am

that track assumes a WSW track occuring over the next 24hrs, I'll be very surprised if that happens to be honest!

What is looking more possible is this system heading further west of Bertha, given its now to the south of Bertha's track.
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Re: ATL: Invest 99L in Central Atlantic

#606 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 03, 2008 8:53 am

Doesn't seem to be much of an LLC left.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
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Re: ATL: Invest 99L in Central Atlantic

#607 Postby Emmett_Brown » Sun Aug 03, 2008 9:01 am

Blown_away wrote:Doesn't seem to be much of an LLC left.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html


In those last couple of frames you can see the burst of convection weakening. You are right, the LLC is hard to find. Perhaps it was pulled under the convection to the north. Still doesnt appear to be able to sustain convection. The bursts are keeping the wave going, but equally seem to be disrupting any LLC whenever they fire up.
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#608 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 03, 2008 9:08 am

000
FZNT23 KNHC 030912
OFFNT3

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND TROPICAL NORTH
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN AUG 03 2008

AMZ089-031530-
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT SUN AUG 03 2008


ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE E OF AREA WILL APPROACH 55W NIGHT AND
TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH TUE
AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. LOW PRES ALONG THE
TROPICAL WAVE MAY POSSIBLY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
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Re: ATL: Invest 99L in Central Atlantic

#609 Postby storms in NC » Sun Aug 03, 2008 9:11 am

Emmett_Brown wrote:
Blown_away wrote:Doesn't seem to be much of an LLC left.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html


In those last couple of frames you can see the burst of convection weakening. You are right, the LLC is hard to find. Perhaps it was pulled under the convection to the north. Still doesnt appear to be able to sustain convection. The bursts are keeping the wave going, but equally seem to be disrupting any LLC whenever they fire up.


True but we have seen storms do this and just refire back up to get stronger. but if it stays weak it will be only a matter of time to be a open wave again. But if it can keep burst of convection going it should do okay. Only time will till if it will build up or go in to a open wave.
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Re: ATL: Invest 99L in Central Atlantic

#610 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 03, 2008 9:11 am

Gustywind, That's consistent w/ the TAFB but not consistent w/ the models.
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#611 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 03, 2008 9:17 am

Image

Image
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#612 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 03, 2008 9:28 am

What I've noticed with these systems is that the LLC tends to weaken a lot when convection blows up, we've seen it several times before but we shall see.

Doesn't look bad right now even if the convection is waning but that should help to keep the system on the westerly track.
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#613 Postby storms in NC » Sun Aug 03, 2008 10:59 am

KWT wrote:What I've noticed with these systems is that the LLC tends to weaken a lot when convection blows up, we've seen it several times before but we shall see.

Doesn't look bad right now even if the convection is waning but that should help to keep the system on the westerly track.


But do we really want it to get a westerly track? Wouldn't a out to sea be nice?
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#614 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 03, 2008 11:04 am

Not really no as it rasies the threat of a landfall somewhere and even a close shave can obviously raise the worry factor.

Looks like there is shear to the west of this system which could be a problem for this system and keep it weak.
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#615 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 03, 2008 11:04 am

Image

99L is running my patience to very low levels!
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#616 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 03, 2008 11:08 am

Also need to note that the models have shifted westwards, some of the models aren't that far off the estimates earlier from the TFAB.

Also yep this system is weakening again, thats why this was never likely to be a TD as some claimed.
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#617 Postby storms in NC » Sun Aug 03, 2008 11:09 am

KWT wrote:Not really no as it rasies the threat of a landfall somewhere and even a close shave can obviously raise the worry factor.

Looks like there is shear to the west of this system which could be a problem for this system and keep it weak.


I am sorry I was picking. But I understand what you are saying
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Re: ATL: Invest 99L in Central Atlantic

#618 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 03, 2008 11:22 am

What is the latest LLC position, got to think it's over 19N by now.
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Re: ATL: Invest 99L in Central Atlantic

#619 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 03, 2008 11:32 am

IMO, I don't see 99L developing, if it ever does, before it reaches at least 65W. 99L should remain shallow and continue moving just N of due W and be near 21N/65W in 48 hours.
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#620 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 03, 2008 11:38 am

Hard to say Blown_away, it was at 18.6 earlier so to be at 19N it would have had to jump probably onto a WNW track I'd guess.

What I do agree with is that it probably won't do much if it survives till further west as shear should increase again soon as it heads westwards.
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