ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[jhamps10]

recon found center at 28N,90.07W
pressure 1002
max FL winds of 47 kts in the NE quad of storm.

[KWT]

Does look like convection has increased on the northern side which is very interesting to observe because it hints that the system is starting to wrap around and lose that shear presentation.

Also the radar does look interesitng, convection finally is trying to wrap around the northern side.

[HURAKAN]

[Normandy]

Edouard is starting to look pretty good on radar, very nice curved band is around the COC now and a primitive eyewall is starting to organize it seems. Looks like the start of a core.

[KatDaddy]

Banding becoming visible on Lake Charles long range radar.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

[KWT]

I also am starting to think its trying to develop an inner core, still needs better convective coverage but its on its way now and the shear earlier may end up helping the system fan out?

[xironman]

Starting to get some of those pretty reds near the center http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-90&zoom=1&palette=spect.pal&type=Animation&numframes=6&quality=90

[Normandy]

I also am starting to think its trying to develop an inner core, still needs better convective coverage but its on its way now and the shear earlier may end up helping the system fan out?

Once shear drops Ed has a VERY good outflow channel to its south in that ULL near the Yucatan. Once it gets a core it could get very strong....maybe scary depending on how fast the core develops. Remember that Ed is not some sprawled out cyclone, it is very compact and such small cyclones are prone to SEVERE changes in intensity (both up and down)....Humberto, Charley, Lorenzo, etc. 36 more hours is plenty....had Humberto had 10 more hours it would have been borderline 3/4 in my opinion. Not saying THAT will happen, just saying keep alert.

[KWT]

Well this one does have more time then Humberto, esp if it can stay south of the guidence like the last recon fixes suggested was the case. As you say Normandy compact systems do have a habit of strengthening pretty rapidly in good conditions.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Looks like the convection is mainly firing on the eastern side now, need to see more on the western side before we get overly excited.

[HURAKAN]

AL, 05, 2008080406, , BEST, 0, 281N, 896W, 45, 1005, TS

[KWT]

Yep still at 45kts back then even when it didn't look great, at least now t does once again look around 45kts though looks can fool!

[xironman]

If you zoom in on the shortwave http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/se/loop-ir2.html, you can see the convection blow back over the llc.

[HURAKAN]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

04/0545 UTC 28.2N 89.7W T2.0/2.0 EDOUARD -- Atlantic Ocean


Now pro's don't get mad because of what I'm going to say.

But this goe's to show that systems with less then 2.5t can be tropical storms, in even fairly strong ones at that. So it goes to show you that nothing works on a linear line with tropical cyclones. I also seen this with Arlene, Alberto, Alison; in a few others.

[KWT]

Yep Matt in this case we have data from recon that obviously over rides those estimates.

Convection still strongly firing on the easternside as well

[Thunder44]

04/0545 UTC 28.2N 89.7W T2.0/2.0 EDOUARD -- Atlantic Ocean


Now pro's don't get mad because of what I'm going to say.

But this goe's to show that systems with less then 2.5t can be tropical storms, in even fairly strong ones at that. So it goes to show you that nothing works on a linear line with tropical cyclones. I also seen this with Arlene, Alberto, Alison; in a few others.

There's nothing wrong with what you are saying. It just shows how unreliable the Dvorak estimates for any system may be. Having recon is always better.

[Lowpressure]

Convection starting to wrap around LLC as a few have eluded to. Today could prove quite interesting for some. Good thing is recon only has to look out the kitchen window- Kessler AFB is about a 5 iron shot away. Should relay a ton of info back, especially if this pans out as another intensifying storm on landfall approach to Texas.

[KWT]

Also worth noting that some deeper convection now becoming evident in that eastern mass as we hit the dmax.

Edouard slowly looking more healthy again after taking a bad turn last night.