ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[HouTXmetro]

Looking at the recent IR it looks like he's losing his cold tops.
Sucking in dry air.

IMO he lost his cold tops early this morning.

[Evil Jeremy]

My guess: 45 MPH and 1001 MB at the new advisory

[Sanibel]

If I went by looks alone I would say this is tightening up with muscular compact form and a thickening west side. Wouldn't be a wise gamble to be suggesting complacency at this point IMHO. Now we can return to people asserting I'm suggesting a category 5 blow-up.

[kurtpage]

My guess: 45 MPH and 1001 MB at the new advisory

I say 45 and 1000

[Air Force Met]

4 o'clock is the next update right? If the satelittle does any justoce to what the update will be, what could we expect? 60-65 sustained winds?

No...don't expect much of a change....

[jinftl]

agree....probably drop some of the tropical storm warnings as well for LA

My guess: 45 MPH and 1001 MB at the new advisory

I say 45 and 1000

[Ed Mahmoud]

It seems we have posters here who want to see Ed explode, and, others here who are trying to make some sense of the situation as per Ed's slow growth - please give us a chance to share our knowledge with you, since it'll help to stem any rumors...

Ed looks well-organized on satellite, but, as Derek mentioned, nothing yet per recon that is any higher than mentioned in the last NHC advisory...

It's close proximity to land is helping to slow it's development, but, we'll see what happens...

When you say " give us a chance to share "OUR" knowledge here," I"m curious, are you a pro met?
I don't post much, I do read here, most especially when there is a tropical storm out there. I tend to take the pro mets posts the most serious. I like coming here for information about the tropical conditions.
If you don't mind, can you clarify the OUR in your above post, and if you have some sort of profession in the weather field.

Thank you.
Thank you to all the pros out there providing information.

Frank2 worked at NHC for a while. August TDs in Houston are usually mid 70sF, and can run closer to 80. But the issue is dry air at mid levels.

Special 18Z sounding from LCH does look a little less dry in the mid levels than 12Z sounding...

[Shockwave]

4 o'clock is the next update right? If the satelittle does any justoce to what the update will be, what could we expect? 60-65 sustained winds?

No...don't expect much of a change....

Ok, thanks. But boy does it sure does look threatning...

[hurricanetrack]

For those who might have enough knowledge of such things, I am curious as to why the GFDL and the HWRF differ so greatly on intensity? How could two models of the modern era be so different? It's not a ghastly difference but the GFDL shows ~990mb and the HWRF shows 1003mb near landfall. Why? I guess if we knew that exactly then we could fix which one is broke...but anyhow, I am curious and I think other people probably are too.

[KWT]

Indeed I think the only change we will see in the next advisory will be the pressure slightly down.

as others have said the mid level dry air is doing a number on this systems chances of strengthening.

[Sanibel]

GFDL is notoriously aggressive on intensity and is said to measure windspeed higher from the surface than other models.

[terrapintransit]

I agree shockwave. It does appear more threatning now. It's developing more of a tighter wrap. Maybe it's just our newbie eyes playing tricks on us.

[Shockwave]

For those who might have enough knowledge of such things, I am curious as to why the GFDL and the HWRF differ so greatly on intensity? How could two models of the modern era be so different? It's not a ghastly difference but the GFDL shows ~990mb and the HWRF shows 1003mb near landfall. Why? I guess if we knew that exactly then we could fix which one is broke...but anyhow, I am curious and I think other people probably are too.

I'm not pro by any means, but in the past I've heard of reasons for a big difference is models, is due to the uncertainity of the projected path and strength of a event or tropical wave.

[Shockwave]

I agree shockwave. It does appear more threatning now. It's developing more of a tighter wrap. Maybe it's just our newbie eyes playing tricks on us.

I guess so, but like any weather system, you've got to have ALL of the dynamics and points working together and if one thing is out of whack...it's a no go.

[HURAKAN]

[Evil Jeremy]

Advisory should be arriving any moment now. This is probably one of the most anticipated advisories yet from this storm because of all of the intensity confusion.

[Stormcenter]

GFDL is notoriously aggressive on intensity and is said to measure windspeed higher from the surface than other models.

This is true most the part except for Katrina. The GFDL was unfortunately dead on with that one from the get go.

[RL3AO]

999.9 mb extrapolated from recon.

[CrazyC83]

Probably 40 kt/1000mb.

[WmE]

999.9 mb extrapolated from recon.

Looks to be down to 1000mbar. Still slow intensification.

edit: if any.