ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[wxman57]

Also, landfall east of GLS Bay now passing east of downtown Houston.

And there goes my hopes for rain.......

Time to get out the sprinkler

[mattpetre]

Looks to me that convection in the Yucatan area has just completely supressed the convection on the S. side of Edouard. I'm guessing that if that convection were to die off it could actually feed the outflow to the S. again?

[fasterdisaster]

OK guys, this is getting weird. The storm is honestly heading straight for just west of Lake Morgan around where TS Matthew 2004 made landfall and this is way more than a wobble.

[Wx_Warrior]

Another long night of interesting ups but plenty of downs. Eddie will be done blown past me this time tomorrow.

Houston will get some rain (BTW).

[Extremeweatherguy]

[Johnny]

Also, landfall east of GLS Bay now passing east of downtown Houston.

I don't see that. It looks like the center will travel right through the heart of Houston. At least that is what it looks like on this map.

[HURAKAN]

Back to Ed. There is a oil price thread in the off-topic forum. Stop it, please.

[dhweather]

OK guys, this is getting weird. The storm is honestly heading straight for just west of Lake Morgan around where TS Matthew 2004 made landfall and this is way more than a wobble.

It looks like it won't make it past Cameron, LA for landfall.





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[TTheriot1975]

This means that it is shifting east already..and at 60 mph? Is that now? or estimated from when recon passed earlier?

[Tireman4]

Yep. Humble is right in the NE quandrant ( where I live)

[stevetampa33614]

Ya I see a shift also I believe. I cant tell if its the actual Nexus of the storm or just the convection, but its good news to houston as it will meet a sooner demise.

[Extremeweatherguy]

OK guys, this is getting weird. The storm is honestly heading straight for just west of Lake Morgan around where TS Matthew 2004 made landfall and this is way more than a wobble.

The storm is not headed for Lake Morgan. In fact, Lake Morgan is not even in the NHC 11pm cone. The storm would actually have to turn around and head NE to reach Lake Morgan, and that is not very likely.

[bayoubebe]

Regardless of direction, it looks like the close proximity to land could hinder further intensification.
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/OneKM.aspx?location=USLA0224&enlarge=true&animate=true

This almost looks like a landfalling tropical system or at least one that is skirting the coast.

This is an interesting point. I was wondering about that in a post I made back a few pages ago...

bayoubebe Post subject: Posted: Mon Aug 04, 2008 9:36 pm


Tropical Storm



Joined: Mon Jul 11, 2005 12:39 amPosts: 150 Does the fact that some of Ed(like bands) has moved over land into Louisiana weaken the system any?

I'd be curious to hear some of the pro's thoughts on this.

[Cape Verde]

chances of a hurricane, while not unrealistic, are only about 5-10% now. I do not see a scenario where this exceeds 70KT

Tell you what, after Humberto last year I'd go a good bit higher on this storm with 18 more hours over water temps near 90 degrees. I had 50% on my last forecast. We've been going 75 mph since yesterday for landfall. See no reason to change. However, any 75 mph winds would be in a tiny area offshore. No such winds over land. It would only be a hurricane in name only, really.

I still can't believe the NHC has been forecasting 70 mph winds prior to landfall and no hurricane warning. They must not want to trigger an evacuation, maybe?

Just plotted the 00Z models. Threw out NAM and NOGAPS, kept the better consensus models, HWRF, and GFDL. Tight consensus for Galveston Bay.

Never have I seen such alignment in the models to suggest that I'm going to get nailed in my life. I'm just glad the intenisty forecast is not too scary.

[dhweather]

This means that it is shifting east already..and at 60 mph? Is that now? or estimated from when recon passed earlier?

60MPH is the 10PM advisory speed

[HurricaneHunter914]

Now I'm just pissed. This would be the like, the 100th time rain has missed my area completely. From Fronts to Severe Storms, my area always misses the rain. AAAARGH! Ok, rant over.

[Stormcenter]

I would not be surprised if this makes landfall on the SW La.
coastline or close to the TX/LA. border.

[stevetampa33614]

Back to Ed. There is a oil price thread in the off-topic forum. Stop it, please.

rgr

[tailgater]

the center( what there is of it, is probably just east of the red band shown on this radar
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... h&loop=yes
and is being pull northward or WNward by convection to the north along the coast, recon will tell us a lot.

[hurrican19]

and so it begins, Central TX will miss out on most of the good stuff (RAIN) due to the system going NORTH and EAST of those poor folks in a severe drought in Austin area.