ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[vaffie]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1124 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2008

.DISCUSSION...

THE 03Z TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD A TOUCH TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...OR MORE OVER CRYSTAL BEACH THAN THE
CITY OF GALVESTON...WITH A NEAR-18Z TUE LANDFALL. AT THE TIME OF
THIS WRITING...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER COASTAL CHAMBERS COUNTY AND EASTERN REACHES
OF GALVESTON COUNTY...OR GENERALLY TO THE EAST OF SAN LUIS PASS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ZFP FOR ACTUAL SUSTAINED WIND AND GUST
FORECASTS PER COUNTY.

THE HLS HAS BEEN UPDATED AND SENT OUT AT 04Z. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN
THIS LATEST INTERMEDIATE PACKAGE. THE ONLY CHANGES OF NOTE WERE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER COASTAL MAXIMUM SEA LEVELS DOWN A TOUCH DUE TO A
MORE NORTHERLY INITIATION OF TS EDOUARD PER RAD/SAT/TPC ANALYSIS
SETTING UP THAT A SLIGHTLY NORTHERLY LANDFALL. IT MUST BE
MENTIONED THAT A VERY SLIGHT UP OR DOWN THE COAST VARIATION OF
LANDFALL LAT/LONG COORDINATES...OR WITHIN JUST A 10 TO 20 NM
ERROR...CAN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE `OR` DECREASE GALVESTON BAY AND
ISLAND WATER LEVELS. THUS...WHEN REVIEWING THE LATEST HLS...PLEASE
BE AWARE THAT THESE MOST UPDATED SEA LEVELS REFER TO A CURRENT
NEAR-CRYSTAL BEACH LANDFALL. ATTM...LEVELS ERR ON THE SIDE OF A
MORE SOUTHERLY (THAN NORTHERLY) LANDFALL...OR ON THE HIGH SIDE TO
ACCOUNT FOR TRACK ERROR. AT 4 FEET...FLOODING BEGINS ACROSS MOST
COASTAL...BAY SIDE...AND WESTERN GALVESTON BAY REGIONS. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING LOOKS TO BE
ON THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. 31

[LaBreeze]

Local met just reported that the northern edge of the center is only about 27-28 miles offshore of Vermilion Parish. Weather has certainly changed over the last hour or two.

[fasterdisaster]

41 kt FL!

This means that Ed is in fact still a tropical storm!

[Innotech]

wind is still pretty gusty in lower Lafayette. It feels so great outside. No rain right now but earlier we had a very brief but strong downpour.

[fasterdisaster]

I think the reason some think this is really close to the LA shore is because they think the center is in the MIDDLE of the convection. The thing is, it ISN'T, it's very close to the southern edge.

[physicx07]

Yeah, I think the local met must be fooled by that too.

I think the reason some think this is really close to the LA shore is because they think the center is in the MIDDLE of the convection. The thing is, it ISN'T, it's very close to the southern edge.

[HouTXmetro]

I think I'm about ready to concede a Sabine Pass landfall. I was hoping it got a lil closer but that isn't going to happen IMO. Houston will still get some gust weather and a lil rain.

[fasterdisaster]

How long until recon passes through the center?

[Evil Jeremy]

41 kt FL!

This means that Ed is in fact still a tropical storm!

dude, they are no where near the center yet.

[fasterdisaster]

41 kt FL!

This means that Ed is in fact still a tropical storm!

dude, they are no where near the center yet.

I was joking

[BigA]

Radar shows a system slowly getting better organized. (to my young eyes)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar_lit ... 0Z&loop=no

[physicx07]

If trends continue, it looks like it will wrap itself up. On the west side it's starting to wrap and there's a bit more on the south side than earlier.

Radar shows a system slowly getting better organized. (to my young eyes)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar_lit ... 0Z&loop=no

[RL3AO]

Center becoming better defined.

[Stormcenter]

He is getting closer and closer.


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar_lit ... R&loop=yes

[fasterdisaster]

Honestly guys...he's nowhere near landfall. It should be at the very least 10 more hours.

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... rainsnow=0

This Loop out of Lake Charles is much better to me.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think I'm about ready to concede a Sabine Pass landfall. I was hoping it got a lil closer but that isn't going to happen IMO. Houston will still get some gust weather and a lil rain.

I wouldn't concede to that just yet. The center is south of the strongest convection on radar ATM and is moving WNW. This motion will likely take the storm inland somewhere between Galveston and Port Arthur, IMO. The only way this will hit Sabine Pass or eastward is if the motion shifts more to the NW.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

With that said, it does definitely look like the Sabine Pass area will get hammered by the stronger bands to the north of the center. They will probably wind up seeing a prolonged period of TS force winds and heavy rains starting later tonight and lasting through tomorrow afternoon.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[fasterdisaster]

How can anyone still think this will hit east of the border? It would take an extremely sharp NW turn to happen. It's going to landfall at this rate at the very northeastern tip of Galveston island.

[Stormcenter]

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=out&num=6&delay=15&scale=0.750&noclutter=0&ID=LCH&type=N0R&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=435&map.y=365.5&centerx=325&centery=163&lightning=0&smooth0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0

This Loop out of Lake Charles is much better to me.

Looks wnw toward TX/LA border but hey it may just be that "radar illusion"
I've been reading about today.

[funster]

Looks like convection is expanding a bit on the west side now.