ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Edouard - Gulf of Mexico
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1124 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2008
.DISCUSSION...
THE 03Z TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD A TOUCH TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...OR MORE OVER CRYSTAL BEACH THAN THE
CITY OF GALVESTON...WITH A NEAR-18Z TUE LANDFALL. AT THE TIME OF
THIS WRITING...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER COASTAL CHAMBERS COUNTY AND EASTERN REACHES
OF GALVESTON COUNTY...OR GENERALLY TO THE EAST OF SAN LUIS PASS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ZFP FOR ACTUAL SUSTAINED WIND AND GUST
FORECASTS PER COUNTY.
THE HLS HAS BEEN UPDATED AND SENT OUT AT 04Z. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN
THIS LATEST INTERMEDIATE PACKAGE. THE ONLY CHANGES OF NOTE WERE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER COASTAL MAXIMUM SEA LEVELS DOWN A TOUCH DUE TO A
MORE NORTHERLY INITIATION OF TS EDOUARD PER RAD/SAT/TPC ANALYSIS
SETTING UP THAT A SLIGHTLY NORTHERLY LANDFALL. IT MUST BE
MENTIONED THAT A VERY SLIGHT UP OR DOWN THE COAST VARIATION OF
LANDFALL LAT/LONG COORDINATES...OR WITHIN JUST A 10 TO 20 NM
ERROR...CAN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE `OR` DECREASE GALVESTON BAY AND
ISLAND WATER LEVELS. THUS...WHEN REVIEWING THE LATEST HLS...PLEASE
BE AWARE THAT THESE MOST UPDATED SEA LEVELS REFER TO A CURRENT
NEAR-CRYSTAL BEACH LANDFALL. ATTM...LEVELS ERR ON THE SIDE OF A
MORE SOUTHERLY (THAN NORTHERLY) LANDFALL...OR ON THE HIGH SIDE TO
ACCOUNT FOR TRACK ERROR. AT 4 FEET...FLOODING BEGINS ACROSS MOST
COASTAL...BAY SIDE...AND WESTERN GALVESTON BAY REGIONS. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING LOOKS TO BE
ON THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. 31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1124 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2008
.DISCUSSION...
THE 03Z TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD A TOUCH TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...OR MORE OVER CRYSTAL BEACH THAN THE
CITY OF GALVESTON...WITH A NEAR-18Z TUE LANDFALL. AT THE TIME OF
THIS WRITING...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER COASTAL CHAMBERS COUNTY AND EASTERN REACHES
OF GALVESTON COUNTY...OR GENERALLY TO THE EAST OF SAN LUIS PASS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ZFP FOR ACTUAL SUSTAINED WIND AND GUST
FORECASTS PER COUNTY.
THE HLS HAS BEEN UPDATED AND SENT OUT AT 04Z. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN
THIS LATEST INTERMEDIATE PACKAGE. THE ONLY CHANGES OF NOTE WERE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER COASTAL MAXIMUM SEA LEVELS DOWN A TOUCH DUE TO A
MORE NORTHERLY INITIATION OF TS EDOUARD PER RAD/SAT/TPC ANALYSIS
SETTING UP THAT A SLIGHTLY NORTHERLY LANDFALL. IT MUST BE
MENTIONED THAT A VERY SLIGHT UP OR DOWN THE COAST VARIATION OF
LANDFALL LAT/LONG COORDINATES...OR WITHIN JUST A 10 TO 20 NM
ERROR...CAN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE `OR` DECREASE GALVESTON BAY AND
ISLAND WATER LEVELS. THUS...WHEN REVIEWING THE LATEST HLS...PLEASE
BE AWARE THAT THESE MOST UPDATED SEA LEVELS REFER TO A CURRENT
NEAR-CRYSTAL BEACH LANDFALL. ATTM...LEVELS ERR ON THE SIDE OF A
MORE SOUTHERLY (THAN NORTHERLY) LANDFALL...OR ON THE HIGH SIDE TO
ACCOUNT FOR TRACK ERROR. AT 4 FEET...FLOODING BEGINS ACROSS MOST
COASTAL...BAY SIDE...AND WESTERN GALVESTON BAY REGIONS. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING LOOKS TO BE
ON THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. 31
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Edouard - Gulf of Mexico
Local met just reported that the northern edge of the center is only about 27-28 miles offshore of Vermilion Parish. Weather has certainly changed over the last hour or two.
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- Innotech
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Edouard - Gulf of Mexico
wind is still pretty gusty in lower Lafayette. It feels so great outside. No rain right now but earlier we had a very brief but strong downpour.
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Re:
Yeah, I think the local met must be fooled by that too.
fasterdisaster wrote:I think the reason some think this is really close to the LA shore is because they think the center is in the MIDDLE of the convection. The thing is, it ISN'T, it's very close to the southern edge.
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- HouTXmetro
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Re:
fasterdisaster wrote:41 kt FL!
This means that Ed is in fact still a tropical storm!
dude, they are no where near the center yet.
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Re: Re:
Evil Jeremy wrote:fasterdisaster wrote:41 kt FL!
This means that Ed is in fact still a tropical storm!
dude, they are no where near the center yet.
I was joking

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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Edouard - Gulf of Mexico
Radar shows a system slowly getting better organized. (to my young eyes)
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar_lit ... 0Z&loop=no
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar_lit ... 0Z&loop=no
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Edouard - Gulf of Mexico
If trends continue, it looks like it will wrap itself up. On the west side it's starting to wrap and there's a bit more on the south side than earlier.
BigA wrote:Radar shows a system slowly getting better organized. (to my young eyes)
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar_lit ... 0Z&loop=no
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Edouard - Gulf of Mexico
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... rainsnow=0
This Loop out of Lake Charles is much better to me.
This Loop out of Lake Charles is much better to me.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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Re:
I wouldn't concede to that just yet. The center is south of the strongest convection on radar ATM and is moving WNW. This motion will likely take the storm inland somewhere between Galveston and Port Arthur, IMO. The only way this will hit Sabine Pass or eastward is if the motion shifts more to the NW.HouTXmetro wrote:I think I'm about ready to concede a Sabine Pass landfall. I was hoping it got a lil closer but that isn't going to happen IMO. Houston will still get some gust weather and a lil rain.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes
With that said, it does definitely look like the Sabine Pass area will get hammered by the stronger bands to the north of the center. They will probably wind up seeing a prolonged period of TS force winds and heavy rains starting later tonight and lasting through tomorrow afternoon.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Edouard - Gulf of Mexico
HouTXmetro wrote:http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=out&num=6&delay=15&scale=0.750&noclutter=0&ID=LCH&type=N0R&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=435&map.y=365.5¢erx=325¢ery=163&lightning=0&smooth0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0
This Loop out of Lake Charles is much better to me.
Looks wnw toward TX/LA border but hey it may just be that "radar illusion"
I've been reading about today.

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