Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

[HURAKAN]

The environment doesn't look very favorable to the north.

Does that mean complete poof or stay south?

Poof is likely. This poor system had its opportunities but never had a nice break.





Look at the current shear above 30ºN.

[storms in NC]

complete poof complete poof complete poof

[StormTracker]

If the surface feature makes it into the Florida Keys or Bahamas, we might be looking at "Bahama-Buster" as they are called(when a system comes all the way from Africa, but can't develop until the last minute...i.e: Katrina/Rita). Not wishing anything on anybody!!! It's just a thought ...ST

[HURAKAN]

The WATL is not represented.

[Blown Away]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early5.png

if that was the position at 0000UTC then this wave has been well south of the southernmost model line even the XTRP. I have been going on the lat/lon that i have seen on here mostly and eyeballing it. What is wrong here and what is right? I am getting very confused.

I also found this if this is what some models are running why is it not an invest
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/intensity_early5.png

Good question, be patient you will get an answer instead of poof, poof, poof!

[Honeyko]

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

The center has been going due west the last few hours.
Rita analog looking better and better....

[HURAKAN]

Rita analog looking better and better....

When Rita formed conditions were a lot more conducive for development and Rita was already a tropical depression while north of Hispaniola.

I also want a tropical cyclone to track but I keep my feet on Earth.

[alan1961]

Think theres going to be a split here with those two blobs east of the bahamas, top one goes north east bottom one goes of to the west..does the bottom one have the weak surface circulation?

[SouthFloridawx]

I'm not saying it's definitely going to develop into anything, but this is moving along the low level flow. It will continue to move West to WNW the next few days, and may have a small window of favorable shear in the Bahamas and into Florida. Probably a smaller system will be possible. What do you guys think?

[KWT]

Convection still holding though its stil lnot that well organised

The thing that should be noted for all those saying poof with this system, you don't keep a LLC, or close to a LLC for most of the Atlantic basin without there being some sort of energy in place to keep it going and that seems to be the case, no reason why that should no give up.

[SouthFloridawx]

What effect will the Upper Level High in the Caribbean have on this area? Would that create a good situation for Divergence to ventilate the possible system?

[Honeyko]

Now entering environment of almost perfect divergence aloft.
I think this is going to explode after sundown....

[cpdaman]

we seem to be piling the crow higher for each side here

i think the increasing shear east of florida will be the key, should the direction of the shear be ENE or so , i think it will be of minimal influence, should the angle stay N or NNE then the relatiive shear should prohibit anything.

What direction will the shear turn? from the trough over the eastern Conus at latitudes appox 23-25 because if you notice, it appears to be turning back more west/wnw as it approached 69w

[storms in NC]

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

The center has been going due west the last few hours.
Rita analog looking better and better....

I seen what is left of 99L is going west. But the other half is going NE. It can very well come up the south east coast and out to sea. just like Cristobal did. Don't think and thing will come to be any thing big. It has to to like start all over again because half of it went NE today. Right now it is just a open wave.

[SouthFloridawx]

we seem to be piling the crow higher for each side here

i think the increasing shear east of florida will be the key, should the direction of the shear be ENE or so , i think it will be of minimal influence, should the angle stay N or NNE then the relatiive shear should prohibit anything.

What direction will the shear turn? from the trough over the eastern Conus at latitudes appox 23-25 because if you notice, it appears to be turning back more west/wnw as it approached 69w

18Z GFS thru 24 hours... is showing E to ENE shear. You can see the Upper Level High developing to it's South and Southeast.

[Honeyko]

Really starting to turn now, and....boom! There they go.

[kpost]

OFF TOPIC sort of

When can wind shear be beneficial, i know i saw it talked about with one of the storms this season?
just trying to learn.

[kpost]

Really starting to turn now, and....boom! There they go.

image or link please

[alan1961]

Really starting to turn now, and....boom! There they go.

image or link please

the 2 blobs east of the bahamas

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

[storms in NC]

Really starting to turn now, and....boom! There they go.

May I ask what you are talking about? Turn as in spin? or turn as in to North?

The piece that got left behind is going WNW.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html