Model Efficiency?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
micktooth
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 391
Joined: Mon Jul 11, 2005 3:47 pm
Location: PreK:New Orleans,PostK:Colorado

Model Efficiency?

#1 Postby micktooth » Tue Aug 05, 2008 2:36 pm

Is it me, or do the models seem to be getting better at predicting storms before they even spin up? Bertha and Edouard for example. Are there new parameters fed into the models? Or are they just "lucky" in their hits vs misses? Any thoughts?
0 likes   

User avatar
terstorm1012
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1314
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:36 pm
Location: Millersburg, PA

Re: Model Efficiency?

#2 Postby terstorm1012 » Tue Aug 05, 2008 2:48 pm

I would say that the more we learn about the atmosphere and the more that is inputted into the models, the better they'll become.
0 likes   

User avatar
DanKellFla
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1291
Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2006 12:02 pm
Location: Lake Worth, Florida

#3 Postby DanKellFla » Tue Aug 05, 2008 7:28 pm

Every year there is more historical data to input to the model.
Think about how much more powerful your computer has gotten over the past 5 years. A screaming machine in 2001 is a paperweight today. As the computational power increases the accuracy of the models will increase as well.
Satellite data is vastly improved over a few years ago. I am not sure, but there is at least one new sattelite up there inputing better and more data.
0 likes   

Honeyko

Re: Model Efficiency?

#4 Postby Honeyko » Wed Aug 06, 2008 3:05 am

They all performed badly with 99L.
0 likes   

Mecklenburg

Re: Model Efficiency?

#5 Postby Mecklenburg » Thu Aug 07, 2008 7:57 pm

Honeyko wrote:They all performed badly with 99L.


coz 99L is not cyclone-worthy... why are you still betting on this skimpy lump of cloud? :eek:
0 likes   

Honeyko

#6 Postby Honeyko » Thu Aug 07, 2008 9:53 pm

They performed badly with 99L while it was invested.

In general, they perform badly with all sheared, WNW-moving systems in the central Atlantic. Invest to Hurr.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cycloneye, duilaslol, JtSmarts and 21 guests