Long Range Models

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Duddy
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Re: Long Range Models

#461 Postby Duddy » Sun Aug 10, 2008 2:20 am

Model agreement from mid-range to la la land. Amazing.

Invests by Sunday night. IMHO.
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Re: Long Range Models

#462 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sun Aug 10, 2008 5:24 am

Image
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Re: Long Range Models

#463 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 10, 2008 5:47 am

A Major hurricane in the Leeward Islands.06z GFS.

Image

Landfall in the Carolinas:

Image
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Mecklenburg

Re: Long Range Models

#464 Postby Mecklenburg » Sun Aug 10, 2008 5:55 am

cycloneye wrote:A Major hurricane in the Leeward Islands.06z GFS.

Image

Landfall in the Carolinas:

Image


now i'm really confused which wave is which, since 92L is first upgraded, wouldn't that be the one that's headed for carolinas? :eek:
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Re: Long Range Models

#465 Postby RL3AO » Sun Aug 10, 2008 6:03 am

Mecklenburg wrote:
now i'm really confused which wave is which, since 92L is first upgraded, wouldn't that be the one that's headed for carolinas? :eek:


The one the GFS has going into the Carolinas is the wave just to the SW of Cape Verde.
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#466 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 10, 2008 6:28 am

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 101014
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
614 AM AST SUN AUG 10 2008

A SECOND AND STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED NEAR 40 WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...COMPUTER MODELS ARE SHOWING A VIGOROUS
TROPICAL WAVE...MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ACTIVE WEATHER DURING BOTH DAYS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15
TO 18KTS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE TODAY.
:roll: :?:
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#467 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 10, 2008 6:39 am

000
AGXX40 KNHC 100539
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
140 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.
CARIBBEAN...
GFS IS DEVELOPING THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 26W AND TRACKS IT
TOWARD THE TROP N ATLC ZONE LATE IN THE WEEK. ECMWF SHOWS SOME
DEVELOPMENT TO THE WAVE FARTHER W NEAR 42W AND MOVES A WEAK
SYSTEM INTO THE REGION BY MID-WEEK. WHILE BOTH OF THESE WAVES
ARE SHOWING SOME ORGANIZATION...ITS TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER OF THESE SOLUTIONS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
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#468 Postby DanKellFla » Sun Aug 10, 2008 7:45 am

Well, I sure spoke too soon!!!
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Re: Long Range Models

#469 Postby HUC » Sun Aug 10, 2008 9:06 am

Hello,all. The time is now for looking carefully to the east ,in direction of Mama Africa....The CV season begin,climatologically speaking around the 15th of August,for 6 weeks or so!!!!
IMO,the wave around 45°west seems to organised better than the one near 30° west,this one that Gfs bring over the Leeward,in 5-6 days. So i put the first ons greater chances of developping and passed over the Winward (it travel also more quickly than the second ).
Anyway,a very interestig situation,and a lot of fun for hurricane chasers... :D But certainly an other story if ,if a hurricane struck our areas !!! :cry:
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Re: Long Range Models

#470 Postby canetracker » Sun Aug 10, 2008 11:15 am

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_ten_l_loop.shtml
GFS loop thru 114 hours

Image
wave behind 92L approaching the islands

500 mb steup
Image
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Re: Long Range Models=12z GFS is Rolling in

#471 Postby canetracker » Sun Aug 10, 2008 11:25 am

144 hr 500 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_144l.gif

Image
144 hr coming closer to the islands. The GFS definitely likes the wave behind 92L and notice whats behind it.
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Scorpion

#472 Postby Scorpion » Sun Aug 10, 2008 11:31 am

Yes looks like its going to be a long month ahead of us.
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#473 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sun Aug 10, 2008 11:31 am

poorly initialized run of the GFS in my opinion...92L should develop and the others that are lagging behind should develop much much slower...
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Re: Long Range Models=12z GFS is Rolling in

#474 Postby canetracker » Sun Aug 10, 2008 11:33 am

Image
168 hr the high is letting it move more north per 500 mb below
Image
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Derek Ortt

#475 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Aug 10, 2008 11:36 am

first 0 or 12Z run in a while that lets this turn north of the islands
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Re: Long Range Models=12z GFS is Rolling in

#476 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 10, 2008 11:38 am

Its in the mentioned a lot in Message boards the Hebert box of 20n-60w.Lets see where it goes from there.
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Re: Long Range Models=12z GFS is Rolling in

#477 Postby canetracker » Sun Aug 10, 2008 11:39 am

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Re: Long Range Models=12z GFS is Rolling in

#478 Postby canetracker » Sun Aug 10, 2008 11:44 am

Image
East Coast bound @ 288 hr

Image
300 hr
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Re: Long Range Models=12z GFS is Rolling in

#479 Postby canetracker » Sun Aug 10, 2008 11:47 am

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Re: Long Range Models

#480 Postby canetracker » Sun Aug 10, 2008 11:51 am

The 00z should be interesting to see if the weakness in the ridge keeps stearing the wave behind 92L east coast bound and to see if the GFS finally gets a better handle on 92L.
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