
Deleted mine ...
Sounds about right to me. Maybe a TD tonight or tomorrow morning, TS not too long after that.
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cycloneye wrote:Still orange.
ABNT20 KNHC 101758
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND CONDITIONS
APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH.
A DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
cheezyWXguy wrote:I didnt mean it was stationary...I meant that the convection is in the same position as it has been all day, as the system moves. Convection has always been on the western side of the circulation, from what ive seen. I dont believe its trailing because they both appear to be moving at the same speed, but since its so broad, convection isnt covering the whole thing.
cheezyWXguy wrote:
I dont yet see a center of circulation, but low cloud elements are moving in a full circle. It appears closed to me, but is far to broad for the moment. I still think it will be at least tomorrow morning before this becomes a td, but not much longer than that, as it is organizing quickly.
'CaneFreak wrote:KWT wrote:The next T numbers will be very interesting to see, regardless we will probably have to go to code red next TWO IMO given the shape, its got a very nice shape to it...
Shape does not matter....LLC and MLC are detached at the moment...end of story...I am done...Look at the loop of the visible at around 43 and 44 West and 11.5 North now....what do you see? THE LOW LEVEL CENTER....wheres the MLC? Further west around 45 to 45.5 west and 11.2 North....thats not to say that a new low level center will not become established later on but it is definitely not that organized at the present moment...mid level flow is a bit strong and the low level center is not keeping up...period.
x-y-no wrote:cheezyWXguy wrote:I didnt mean it was stationary...I meant that the convection is in the same position as it has been all day, as the system moves. Convection has always been on the western side of the circulation, from what ive seen. I dont believe its trailing because they both appear to be moving at the same speed, but since its so broad, convection isnt covering the whole thing.
Like I said, we seem to be using terminology differently. I fail to see the distinction between saying the westward moving low-level circulation is trailing and saying the strong convection is all to the west side of the circulation.
cheezyWXguy wrote:'CaneFreak wrote:KWT wrote:The next T numbers will be very interesting to see, regardless we will probably have to go to code red next TWO IMO given the shape, its got a very nice shape to it...
Shape does not matter....LLC and MLC are detached at the moment...end of story...I am done...Look at the loop of the visible at around 43 and 44 West and 11.5 North now....what do you see? THE LOW LEVEL CENTER....wheres the MLC? Further west around 45 to 45.5 west and 11.2 North....thats not to say that a new low level center will not become established later on but it is definitely not that organized at the present moment...mid level flow is a bit strong and the low level center is not keeping up...period.
Thats assuming that the MLC is always in the convection...what if its not? I dont see any swirling over there...just western bands associated with the llc. Some people here think they can determine an MLC by looking at a still AVN frame. An MLC is an actual circulation in the mid levels, not the center of a mass of convection.
'CaneFreak wrote:
I know what an MLC is thanks....but no really...look at the visible and tell me you don't see some turning near 11N and 45W...go look right now....look at the loop not the still frame....
cheezyWXguy wrote:'CaneFreak wrote:
I know what an MLC is thanks....but no really...look at the visible and tell me you don't see some turning near 11N and 45W...go look right now....look at the loop not the still frame....
I just did and I cant see it. It looks like a spin ON A SINGLE FRAME. But theres no spin on loop. Calling that an mlc is like calling that dead spot in the middle of the convection a "mid level eye"
'CaneFreak wrote:cheezyWXguy wrote:'CaneFreak wrote:
I know what an MLC is thanks....but no really...look at the visible and tell me you don't see some turning near 11N and 45W...go look right now....look at the loop not the still frame....
I just did and I cant see it. It looks like a spin ON A SINGLE FRAME. But theres no spin on loop. Calling that an mlc is like calling that dead spot in the middle of the convection a "mid level eye"
sorry you can't see it but I do know what I am talking about...trust me...I have been studying these things for years and years now...if the LLC and MLC were co-located right now...the NHC would have upgraded this to a HIGH probability for formation.
wxman57 wrote:Here's a shot on which I've identified what I think is a low-level circulation center near 10.5N/43.4W. There are some very tiny low-level cloud filaments rotating around that yellow "X" on the image.
wxman57 wrote:Here's a shot on which I've identified what I think is a low-level circulation center near 10.5N/43.4W. There are some very tiny low-level cloud filaments rotating around that yellow "X" on the image. As you can see, it's displaced east of the convection:
vacanechaser wrote:wxman57 wrote:Here's a shot on which I've identified what I think is a low-level circulation center near 10.5N/43.4W. There are some very tiny low-level cloud filaments rotating around that yellow "X" on the image. As you can see, it's displaced east of the convection:
thank you for putting an end to the bickering... it is and has been displaced to the east of the MID LEVEL CENTER most of this morning and afternoon... that mlc of course could fire another llc later on, but right now, they are not co-located
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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