ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

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x-y-no
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#181 Postby x-y-no » Sun Aug 10, 2008 1:02 pm

Heh ... beat me by 5 seconds, Luis. :-)

Deleted mine ...

Sounds about right to me. Maybe a TD tonight or tomorrow morning, TS not too long after that.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#182 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sun Aug 10, 2008 1:03 pm

cycloneye wrote:Still orange.

ABNT20 KNHC 101758
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND CONDITIONS
APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH.



A DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

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Re: Re:

#183 Postby x-y-no » Sun Aug 10, 2008 1:05 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:I didnt mean it was stationary...I meant that the convection is in the same position as it has been all day, as the system moves. Convection has always been on the western side of the circulation, from what ive seen. I dont believe its trailing because they both appear to be moving at the same speed, but since its so broad, convection isnt covering the whole thing.


Like I said, we seem to be using terminology differently. I fail to see the distinction between saying the westward moving low-level circulation is trailing and saying the strong convection is all to the west side of the circulation.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#184 Postby jinftl » Sun Aug 10, 2008 1:06 pm

Hurricane Charley formed on 8/9/04 at approx 11.7 N and 61 W....granted no two set-ups for developing systems are ever the same, but thought it was at the very least interesting that 92L could be in a similar area in a few days


cheezyWXguy wrote:
Recurve wrote:Still looking for a fix.
Low-mid center(s) east of the system?
11N 44W?

Image
Image

I see some consensus there :uarrow:

I dont yet see a center of circulation, but low cloud elements are moving in a full circle. It appears closed to me, but is far to broad for the moment. I still think it will be at least tomorrow morning before this becomes a td, but not much longer than that, as it is organizing quickly.
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Re: Re:

#185 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Aug 10, 2008 1:07 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:
KWT wrote:The next T numbers will be very interesting to see, regardless we will probably have to go to code red next TWO IMO given the shape, its got a very nice shape to it...


Shape does not matter....LLC and MLC are detached at the moment...end of story...I am done...Look at the loop of the visible at around 43 and 44 West and 11.5 North now....what do you see? THE LOW LEVEL CENTER....wheres the MLC? Further west around 45 to 45.5 west and 11.2 North....thats not to say that a new low level center will not become established later on but it is definitely not that organized at the present moment...mid level flow is a bit strong and the low level center is not keeping up...period.

Thats assuming that the MLC is always in the convection...what if its not? I dont see any swirling over there...just western bands associated with the llc. Some people here think they can determine an MLC by looking at a still AVN frame. An MLC is an actual circulation in the mid levels, not the center of a mass of convection.
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#186 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Aug 10, 2008 1:08 pm

For now looks like Caribbean islands are threatened.
After that, it is TOO UNCERTAIN (after 4 days). Will there
be a deep trough? A ridge? We don't know.
What we do know is that the Caribbean islands need to
watch this closely.
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Re: Re:

#187 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Aug 10, 2008 1:10 pm

x-y-no wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:I didnt mean it was stationary...I meant that the convection is in the same position as it has been all day, as the system moves. Convection has always been on the western side of the circulation, from what ive seen. I dont believe its trailing because they both appear to be moving at the same speed, but since its so broad, convection isnt covering the whole thing.


Like I said, we seem to be using terminology differently. I fail to see the distinction between saying the westward moving low-level circulation is trailing and saying the strong convection is all to the west side of the circulation.

Ok i guess i just misunderstood...by trailing I thought you meant that the llc was being left behind by the convection and that it would no longer be associated with the storm. That is clearly not the case here
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Re: Re:

#188 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sun Aug 10, 2008 1:11 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
'CaneFreak wrote:
KWT wrote:The next T numbers will be very interesting to see, regardless we will probably have to go to code red next TWO IMO given the shape, its got a very nice shape to it...


Shape does not matter....LLC and MLC are detached at the moment...end of story...I am done...Look at the loop of the visible at around 43 and 44 West and 11.5 North now....what do you see? THE LOW LEVEL CENTER....wheres the MLC? Further west around 45 to 45.5 west and 11.2 North....thats not to say that a new low level center will not become established later on but it is definitely not that organized at the present moment...mid level flow is a bit strong and the low level center is not keeping up...period.

Thats assuming that the MLC is always in the convection...what if its not? I dont see any swirling over there...just western bands associated with the llc. Some people here think they can determine an MLC by looking at a still AVN frame. An MLC is an actual circulation in the mid levels, not the center of a mass of convection.


I know what an MLC is thanks....but no really...look at the visible and tell me you don't see some turning near 11N and 45W...go look right now....look at the loop not the still frame....
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Re: Re:

#189 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Aug 10, 2008 1:15 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:
I know what an MLC is thanks....but no really...look at the visible and tell me you don't see some turning near 11N and 45W...go look right now....look at the loop not the still frame....

I just did and I cant see it. It looks like a spin ON A SINGLE FRAME. But theres no spin on loop. Calling that an mlc is like calling that dead spot in the middle of the convection a "mid level eye"
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Re: Re:

#190 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sun Aug 10, 2008 1:18 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
'CaneFreak wrote:
I know what an MLC is thanks....but no really...look at the visible and tell me you don't see some turning near 11N and 45W...go look right now....look at the loop not the still frame....

I just did and I cant see it. It looks like a spin ON A SINGLE FRAME. But theres no spin on loop. Calling that an mlc is like calling that dead spot in the middle of the convection a "mid level eye"


sorry you can't see it but I do know what I am talking about...trust me...I have been studying these things for years and years now...if the LLC and MLC were co-located right now...the NHC would have upgraded this to a HIGH probability for formation.
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#191 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 10, 2008 1:21 pm

'CaneFreak, maybe so but we could still go to code red even if they are somewhat displaced, which I agree they probably are.

The reason they kept code orange is probably just because as you say the strcuture isn't quite there.
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Re: Re:

#192 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Aug 10, 2008 1:24 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
'CaneFreak wrote:
I know what an MLC is thanks....but no really...look at the visible and tell me you don't see some turning near 11N and 45W...go look right now....look at the loop not the still frame....

I just did and I cant see it. It looks like a spin ON A SINGLE FRAME. But theres no spin on loop. Calling that an mlc is like calling that dead spot in the middle of the convection a "mid level eye"


sorry you can't see it but I do know what I am talking about...trust me...I have been studying these things for years and years now...if the LLC and MLC were co-located right now...the NHC would have upgraded this to a HIGH probability for formation.

Its not theyre not co-located...its that theres not convection covering the llc. Thats why they havent gone to high yet, in addition to the fact that it has an elongated llc and marginally favorable conditions at this time. Really, I did think it was a MLC earlier this morning. But now I dont think it is. Instead of looking like its own entity, its taking on the shape of banding features associated with a low level circulation. Convection is looking more like several linear segments clustered together, than a premature CDO
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic=2 PM TWO,orange

#193 Postby wxman57 » Sun Aug 10, 2008 1:26 pm

Here's a shot on which I've identified what I think is a low-level circulation center near 10.5N/43.4W. There are some very tiny low-level cloud filaments rotating around that yellow "X" on the image. As you can see, it's displaced east of the convection:

Image
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic=2 PM TWO,orange

#194 Postby x-y-no » Sun Aug 10, 2008 1:28 pm

wxman57 wrote:Here's a shot on which I've identified what I think is a low-level circulation center near 10.5N/43.4W. There are some very tiny low-level cloud filaments rotating around that yellow "X" on the image.


Thanks for the confirmation. That's exactly where I'm seeing it too.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic=2 PM TWO,orange

#195 Postby dixiebreeze » Sun Aug 10, 2008 1:30 pm

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
06/2345 UTC 11.5N 22.6W T1.0/1.0 INVEST
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic=2 PM TWO,orange

#196 Postby vacanechaser » Sun Aug 10, 2008 1:30 pm

wxman57 wrote:Here's a shot on which I've identified what I think is a low-level circulation center near 10.5N/43.4W. There are some very tiny low-level cloud filaments rotating around that yellow "X" on the image. As you can see, it's displaced east of the convection:

Image



thank you for putting an end to the bickering... it is and has been displaced to the east of the MID LEVEL CENTER most of this morning and afternoon... that mlc of course could fire another llc later on, but right now, they are not co-located



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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#197 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 10, 2008 1:32 pm

Yep see that circulation as well wxman57, not very strong though and could be prone to opening up given the shear.

Thats another reason why I think its going to take its time developing.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic=2 PM TWO,orange

#198 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Aug 10, 2008 1:34 pm

vacanechaser wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Here's a shot on which I've identified what I think is a low-level circulation center near 10.5N/43.4W. There are some very tiny low-level cloud filaments rotating around that yellow "X" on the image. As you can see, it's displaced east of the convection:

Image



thank you for putting an end to the bickering... it is and has been displaced to the east of the MID LEVEL CENTER most of this morning and afternoon... that mlc of course could fire another llc later on, but right now, they are not co-located



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Whatever the bickering isnt all that important about this mlc stuff. I could be wrong but I just no longer see a rotation center in the cluster of convection. The only rotation I see is the llc that wxman pointed out. Agree to disagree but the endpoint is the same. This storm is likely going to develop.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic=2 PM TWO,orange

#199 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 10, 2008 1:35 pm

Best Track at 18:00 UTC by ATCF:

AL, 92, 2008081018, , BEST, 0, 107N, 445W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 40,
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#200 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 10, 2008 1:37 pm

Not gaining as much latitude as the models forecasted it would do cycloneye though need to see what the longer term motion is like though till we have a totally established center estimates won't mean all that much.
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