Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[stormchazer]

Nonetheless, isn't it encouraging that some of the models are finally showing a weakening ridge? Before they all (including GFDL) were indicating the lasting presence of what some would call a "monster ridge"....now they might be seeing differently as wxman57 pointed out...weaker steering currents might mean a Carolina landfall or even better a fish!

Huh?

You should expediently review the wise sayings posted by jlauderdal...

By the way, I don't believe "amateur meteorologists" technically exist.

Don't know about assigned reading...but GreenSky you make a valid point. The northern curve has been evident for a day or longer now, first it was just a bend at the end, now we see it more evident. Timing will be everything, but from where it is now, only a deep high is going to track it almost straight west into or across FL, and some weakness will let it escape, which is good news for me, possibly bad for the Carolinas.

[fixed typo]

I am not sure it would take a Deep High. There are some indications that 92L could turn NW then hit a weakness in steering and just kind of hang out in the SE with a High building in. That would not be good for potentially anyone in the SE to Mid-Atlantic.

Of course we do not yet have an official system yet.

[Scorpion]

NAM has intensifying system at 36 hours

[Blown Away]

Explain what the Nogaps & GFS doing, are they looping at the end run? Is the ridge building in and blocking a recurve?

[gatorcane]

Explain what the Nogaps & GFS doing, are they looping at the end run? Is the ridge building in and blocking a recurve?

Remember what pro met Deltadog was explaining, he saw a "hook" from NW then back to the west into the East Coast of Florida similar to Jeanne. I think because another high builds in that blocks it from being a Carolina storm.

Either way there seems to be too many indications to me that this very-well could be a Florida storm should it develop (and stay away from the Greater Antilles)

[Ivanhater]

Explain what the Nogaps & GFS doing, are they looping at the end run? Is the ridge building in and blocking a recurve?

the GFS is indicating very weak steering currents so it hangs out a bit before the high pushes it wack sw THE NOGAPS just keeps it ona more southerly route...

[sunnyday]

As mentioned in someone's previous post, we don't have an official system yet. My question is why do the models show possible points of landfall when a storm might not even form? Is this one hugely likely to become a storm? I don't see why we are being shown landfall of something that doesn't exist and may not ever exist.

[Bocadude85]

You do realize that 4 models now actually bring this ashore on South Florida right? GFS NOGAPS EURO and while not the best model but still worth taking note of the NAM

[Ivanhater]

I think we all can agree tomorrows runs will be key because at the rate its going the models will have an actual LLC to base off of...

[HURAKAN]

It's too early to say it will go east of Florida or cross to the GOM.

[gatorcane]

You do realize that 4 models now actually bring this ashore on South Florida right? GFS NOGAPS EURO and while not the best model but still worth taking note of the NAM

Prediction: this will be all over the South Florida media starting tomorrow and especially Friday because of how close it may come or the fact it may have some impacts here.

Great I just bought a house also, I knew this would happen.

[Jinkers]

Paul on Channel 6 has already been talking about this one

[stormchazer]

As mentioned in someone's previous post, we don't have an official system yet. My question is why do the models show possible points of landfall when a storm might not even form? Is this one hugely likely to become a storm? I don't see why we are being shown landfall of something that doesn't exist and may not ever exist.

Quick explanation Sunny. The models do not care of the system is named now or not. They take all the data inputted and forecast how things might evolve. I agree that it is not named yet so the models are suspect, but they do give a good look at possible steering patterns in place and where a potential system might go.

[boca]

You do realize that 4 models now actually bring this ashore on South Florida right? GFS NOGAPS EURO and while not the best model but still worth taking note of the NAM

Prediction: this will be all over the South Florida media starting tomorrow and especially Friday because of how close it may come or the fact it may have some impacts here.

Great I just bought a house also, I knew this would happen.

Off topic congratulations on your new home.

[gatorcane]

I made sure they came with working shutters, but they are the kind you have to drill in unfortunately...

Hopefully it won't get close enough to the Palm Beaches and Palm Beach County. Maybe it will just not organize all together that would be even better

[DeanDaDream]

TV channels in Jacksonville are starting to talk about it.

[gatorcane]

Here is the GFS 500 MB flow in 5 days. You can see how there is a path for 92L to make that NW turn somewhere from the Eastern GOM to Bahamas. Still early to say where. Lots of questions.

[Blown Away]

You do realize that 4 models now actually bring this ashore on South Florida right? GFS NOGAPS EURO and while not the best model but still worth taking note of the NAM

Prediction: this will be all over the South Florida media starting tomorrow and especially Friday because of how close it may come or the fact it may have some impacts here.

Great I just bought a house also, I knew this would happen.

Didn't you live in Jupiter before? At least you get the west of I-95 homeowner's discount!

[gatorcane]

No I was in Boca Raton-Delray for a while though.

[Ed Mahmoud]

May be heading North at the end, but the GFDL's 500 meter height fields shows the high building back in, despite what looks like a nearly stationary trough. Positively tilted trough, that remains nearly stationary, but seems to weaken/lose amplitude. The positive tilt would suggest SW flow trying to steer 92L out to sea if it got a bit further North, but the ridge shown building in looks like it will keep 92L moving North, and if it keeps building, back to West of due North.

Complicated.


Don't know if GFDL outer grid 500 mb heights are available on a free web site or not.

[Ivanhater]

00Z NAM is nasty!