Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

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Aric Dunn
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#801 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 14, 2008 1:02 am

scary HWRF
106kts over grand bahama heading NW
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
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#802 Postby Meso » Thu Aug 14, 2008 1:02 am

Image
Image

00z HWRF and GFDL
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#803 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 14, 2008 1:03 am

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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#804 Postby blp » Thu Aug 14, 2008 1:10 am

So UKMET, NOGAPS, 12Z EURO, CMC = Stronger Ridge

GFS, GFDL, HWRF = Weaker Ridge

And Florida in the middle... I can't wait till we finally get a center to help straighten this out.
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#805 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 14, 2008 1:12 am

Interesting possible new trend from the GFS sutie of models, however I am forced to remember the numerous times the model has tracked too far right in the past, even recently with Dolly with the GFD into Galveston which turnt out to be a little wrong!
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#806 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 14, 2008 1:13 am

well gfs re builds the ridge very strong after the gfdl and hwrf ends
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#807 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 14, 2008 1:15 am

Could be enough then Aric to shunt it into the Carolinas I wonder then on the GFDL run.

If I was to bet I'd still believe the other models given GFS does have something of a known right bias.
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#808 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 14, 2008 1:17 am

will see.. thats really far oput..

the biggest change is the always conservative hwrf .. on intensity!!! it was barely keeping it alive ealier now its a 106kt(125mph) major hurricane..
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#809 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 14, 2008 1:20 am

Yep indeed and most models do now at least do something with 92L, even the ones that are normally fairly conservative when it comes to development.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#810 Postby blp » Thu Aug 14, 2008 1:22 am

It is interesting how the GFS is now outlier with the lowest progged development and even dissipates it. All the other models have this developing to some degree. I am wondering with the recent organization if the 06Z run will be different.

I
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#811 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 14, 2008 1:22 am

blp wrote:It is interesting how the GFS is now outlier with the lowest progged development and even dissipates it. All the other models have this developing to some degree. I am wondering with the recent organization if the 06Z run will be different.

I


no becasue no new data will be inputed till the 12z run
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#812 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 14, 2008 1:24 am

Well isn't GFDL and HRWF, GFS fed?
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#813 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 14, 2008 1:25 am

Yep the this may well be what it was like with Felix where its just so stubborn it doesn't form anything from it prehaps due to bad data or something who knows!

Yep indeed they both are fed from the GFS, hence they both will also have right biases sometimes.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#814 Postby GreenSky » Thu Aug 14, 2008 1:27 am

blp wrote:So UKMET, NOGAPS, 12Z EURO, CMC = Stronger Ridge

GFS, GFDL, HWRF = Weaker Ridge

And Florida in the middle... I can't wait till we finally get a center to help straighten this out.



So the more reliable models (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, etc.) are predicting 92L to miss Florida.

CMC is usually garbage, EURO and NOGAPS tend to be okay, and UKMET is usually off by a few hundred miles :double:
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#815 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 14, 2008 1:29 am

GFDL isn't all that great with tracks when you have weakness like it progs about 120hrs because it can overdo them, just like it did with Bertha as well as Dolly earlier this season, as well as countless others in previous seasons.

Still its only one possible track, anything could happen.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#816 Postby blp » Thu Aug 14, 2008 1:32 am

GreenSky wrote:
blp wrote:So UKMET, NOGAPS, 12Z EURO, CMC = Stronger Ridge

GFS, GFDL, HWRF = Weaker Ridge

And Florida in the middle... I can't wait till we finally get a center to help straighten this out.



So the more reliable models (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, etc.) are predicting 92L to miss Florida.

CMC is usually garbage, EURO and NOGAPS tend to be okay, and UKMET is usually off by a few hundred miles :double:


I would not go so far as to say they are the most reliable this year, they did not do so well with Dolly. This is going to swing back and forth. Let's see now that we have a stronger system with a potential center what the models say.
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Re:

#817 Postby GreenSky » Thu Aug 14, 2008 1:35 am

KWT wrote:GFDL isn't all that great with tracks when you have weakness like it progs about 120hrs because it can overdo them, just like it did with Bertha as well as Dolly earlier this season, as well as countless others in previous seasons.

Still its only one possible track, anything could happen.


Correct me if I am wrong, but haven't GFS and GFDL now in their past few runs consistently been showing a right bias and weakness in the ridge? Now HWRF is joining them.

I am just observing a trend...which may be good for Florida but bad for Bermuda or the Carolinas.

This looks all too much like a Floyd scenario.

Furthermore, what's up with that STALLED COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA...THAT THING HAS JUST BEEN SITTING THERE FOR LIKE A WHOLE FRIGGIN' WEEK....IF THAT STAYS PUT, THEN 92L COULD STAY A FISH

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#818 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 14, 2008 1:40 am

Well I'm certainly not ruling out the GFDL, indeed I said last night this may pull a Floyd but its clearly too soon to know for sure...

has anyone else noted the HWRF's central pressure of 931mbs!!
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Re:

#819 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 14, 2008 1:42 am

KWT wrote:Well I'm certainly not ruling out the GFDL, indeed I said last night this may pull a Floyd but its clearly too soon to know for sure...

has anyone else noted the HWRF's central pressure of 931mbs!!


931mb with 98kt winds....haha. Yeah right.
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#820 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 14, 2008 1:43 am

Yep clearly not quite right there unless the winds are rapidly catching up, can't say thats all that believeable evn though history has shown to be supportive in that region for such pressures.
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