Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Aric Dunn]

scary HWRF
106kts over grand bahama heading NW
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Meso]

00z HWRF and GFDL

[Aric Dunn]

00z ukmet
farther south into Miami
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[blp]

So UKMET, NOGAPS, 12Z EURO, CMC = Stronger Ridge

GFS, GFDL, HWRF = Weaker Ridge

And Florida in the middle... I can't wait till we finally get a center to help straighten this out.

[KWT]

Interesting possible new trend from the GFS sutie of models, however I am forced to remember the numerous times the model has tracked too far right in the past, even recently with Dolly with the GFD into Galveston which turnt out to be a little wrong!

[Aric Dunn]

well gfs re builds the ridge very strong after the gfdl and hwrf ends

[KWT]

Could be enough then Aric to shunt it into the Carolinas I wonder then on the GFDL run.

If I was to bet I'd still believe the other models given GFS does have something of a known right bias.

[Aric Dunn]

will see.. thats really far oput..

the biggest change is the always conservative hwrf .. on intensity!!! it was barely keeping it alive ealier now its a 106kt(125mph) major hurricane..

[KWT]

Yep indeed and most models do now at least do something with 92L, even the ones that are normally fairly conservative when it comes to development.

[blp]

It is interesting how the GFS is now outlier with the lowest progged development and even dissipates it. All the other models have this developing to some degree. I am wondering with the recent organization if the 06Z run will be different.

I

[Aric Dunn]

It is interesting how the GFS is now outlier with the lowest progged development and even dissipates it. All the other models have this developing to some degree. I am wondering with the recent organization if the 06Z run will be different.

I

no becasue no new data will be inputed till the 12z run

[SouthFloridawx]

Well isn't GFDL and HRWF, GFS fed?

[KWT]

Yep the this may well be what it was like with Felix where its just so stubborn it doesn't form anything from it prehaps due to bad data or something who knows!

Yep indeed they both are fed from the GFS, hence they both will also have right biases sometimes.

[GreenSky]

So UKMET, NOGAPS, 12Z EURO, CMC = Stronger Ridge

GFS, GFDL, HWRF = Weaker Ridge

And Florida in the middle... I can't wait till we finally get a center to help straighten this out.

So the more reliable models (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, etc.) are predicting 92L to miss Florida.

CMC is usually garbage, EURO and NOGAPS tend to be okay, and UKMET is usually off by a few hundred miles

[KWT]

GFDL isn't all that great with tracks when you have weakness like it progs about 120hrs because it can overdo them, just like it did with Bertha as well as Dolly earlier this season, as well as countless others in previous seasons.

Still its only one possible track, anything could happen.

[blp]

So UKMET, NOGAPS, 12Z EURO, CMC = Stronger Ridge

GFS, GFDL, HWRF = Weaker Ridge

And Florida in the middle... I can't wait till we finally get a center to help straighten this out.

So the more reliable models (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, etc.) are predicting 92L to miss Florida.

CMC is usually garbage, EURO and NOGAPS tend to be okay, and UKMET is usually off by a few hundred miles

I would not go so far as to say they are the most reliable this year, they did not do so well with Dolly. This is going to swing back and forth. Let's see now that we have a stronger system with a potential center what the models say.

[GreenSky]

GFDL isn't all that great with tracks when you have weakness like it progs about 120hrs because it can overdo them, just like it did with Bertha as well as Dolly earlier this season, as well as countless others in previous seasons.

Still its only one possible track, anything could happen.

Correct me if I am wrong, but haven't GFS and GFDL now in their past few runs consistently been showing a right bias and weakness in the ridge? Now HWRF is joining them.

I am just observing a trend...which may be good for Florida but bad for Bermuda or the Carolinas.

This looks all too much like a Floyd scenario.

Furthermore, what's up with that STALLED COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA...THAT THING HAS JUST BEEN SITTING THERE FOR LIKE A WHOLE FRIGGIN' WEEK....IF THAT STAYS PUT, THEN 92L COULD STAY A FISH

[KWT]

Well I'm certainly not ruling out the GFDL, indeed I said last night this may pull a Floyd but its clearly too soon to know for sure...

has anyone else noted the HWRF's central pressure of 931mbs!!

[RL3AO]

Well I'm certainly not ruling out the GFDL, indeed I said last night this may pull a Floyd but its clearly too soon to know for sure...

has anyone else noted the HWRF's central pressure of 931mbs!!

931mb with 98kt winds....haha. Yeah right.

[KWT]

Yep clearly not quite right there unless the winds are rapidly catching up, can't say thats all that believeable evn though history has shown to be supportive in that region for such pressures.