ATL: Tropical Depression Fay
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic
I don't really think a system could look any better as an Invest. I'd be shocked if recon doesn't find something at the surface next mission. The system as a whole also seems to be heading a bit N of due west.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic
nice midlevel circ... i have extrapoalted the best i could givien the quality..
I would like it if someone could save the individual images so we can make a longer loop
anyone up for it its easy..
here is the animation

just go here and start saving every new image till you have about 20. than go
here
http://www.blibs.com/editor/
and up load to make gif image also when you do it increase the animation speed in the animation settings
I would like it if someone could save the individual images so we can make a longer loop
anyone up for it its easy..
here is the animation

just go here and start saving every new image till you have about 20. than go
here
http://www.blibs.com/editor/
and up load to make gif image also when you do it increase the animation speed in the animation settings
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic
This is one of the more interesting systems to track in recent years. It's a lurker with unknown potential.
Last night's 2-3am d-max came earlier than the night before. It's more consolidated. At this point I think questions over development should be obvious.
The system and environment are still weak and the track next to the islands, that doesn't appear to be lifting, should keep 92L's intensity down.
What we west coasters have to worry about is that parallel track happening 275 miles further west. But this very slow forward speed makes recurve more of a possibility as it allows CONUS patterns to evolve eastward.
Last night's 2-3am d-max came earlier than the night before. It's more consolidated. At this point I think questions over development should be obvious.
The system and environment are still weak and the track next to the islands, that doesn't appear to be lifting, should keep 92L's intensity down.
What we west coasters have to worry about is that parallel track happening 275 miles further west. But this very slow forward speed makes recurve more of a possibility as it allows CONUS patterns to evolve eastward.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic
I am going to rant briefly:
I think that NHC has been slow dealing with this system in terms of releasing Special Statements,Calling the NWS offices of the area,posting watches and warnings and not upgrading it this morning.Here in Puerto Rico,normal life is going on,with schools,goverment working etc.Being the system so close to the islands in the Northern Leewards BVI,USVI and Puerto Rico,I think it has been prudent for NHC to issue watches and warnings for the residents to prepare.

I think that NHC has been slow dealing with this system in terms of releasing Special Statements,Calling the NWS offices of the area,posting watches and warnings and not upgrading it this morning.Here in Puerto Rico,normal life is going on,with schools,goverment working etc.Being the system so close to the islands in the Northern Leewards BVI,USVI and Puerto Rico,I think it has been prudent for NHC to issue watches and warnings for the residents to prepare.
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- BatzVI
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Here is a webcam of downtown St. Thomas if anyone wants to see the conditions...The webcam is right above my office...been a little bit gusty, but I know it will be worse around quitting time....take care all in the NE Caribbean....stay safe
http://reservationsbvi.com/web%20cams/s ... 20cam.html
http://reservationsbvi.com/web%20cams/s ... 20cam.html
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic
cycloneye wrote:I am going to rant briefly:![]()
I think that NHC has been slow dealing with this system in terms of releasing Special Statements,Calling the NWS offices of the area,posting watches and warnings and not upgrading it this morning.Here in Puerto Rico,normal life is going on,with schools,goverment working etc.Being the system so close to the islands in the Northern Leewards BVI,USVI and Puerto Rico,I think it has been prudent for NHC to issue watches and warnings for the residents to prepare.
Well said Luis -- yes I think NHC may need to do something over the next few hours to ensure people are prepared in Puerto Rico and surrounding areas --- if trends continue. Right now the lower-level winds are not too strong as Wxman pointed out so nothing to worry about but 92L could ramp up quicker than expected.
Stay safe

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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic
Sanibel wrote:This is one of the more interesting systems to track in recent years. It's a lurker with unknown potential.
Last night's 2-3am d-max came earlier than the night before. It's more consolidated. At this point I think questions over development should be obvious.
The system and environment are still weak and the track next to the islands, that doesn't appear to be lifting, should keep 92L's intensity down.
What we west coasters have to worry about is that parallel track happening 275 miles further west. But this very slow forward speed makes recurve more of a possibility as it allows CONUS patterns to evolve eastward.
How quickly we forget. There were a ton of "interesting" storms in 2004 & 2005.
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Well the problem is it doesn't yet have an offical LLC so we can't upgrade it simply because we havent got the one last piece.
Is it possible to issue TS watches without a defined system by the way or would it just be gale warnings?
gatorcane, thats a very interesting comprasion, if the models shift westwards a little then that may not be far off, certainly one of the better ones to compare there!
Is it possible to issue TS watches without a defined system by the way or would it just be gale warnings?
gatorcane, thats a very interesting comprasion, if the models shift westwards a little then that may not be far off, certainly one of the better ones to compare there!
Last edited by KWT on Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic
Here is the center based on the low level inflow on radar and sat..
mid level is diplaced (presently) from whatever LLC exists ( fairly weak still) but should slowly become stacked today..
red lines are bands in the low levels, red circle is a rough extrapolation based on radar and sat and the white circle is the midlevel circ

mid level is diplaced (presently) from whatever LLC exists ( fairly weak still) but should slowly become stacked today..
red lines are bands in the low levels, red circle is a rough extrapolation based on radar and sat and the white circle is the midlevel circ

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- vbhoutex
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Re: Re:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:TTheriot1975 wrote:Hello all...just because I am going back to work next week, and wont be able to be on here like I usually am, I would like to know if SETX will be in trouble at all if this storm moves west into the GOM. Any possibilities of that at all? or is it too soon to tell? Thanks...
No place North of Belize is safe on the Atlantic Coast, but, unofficially, there is nothing to suggest any impact into the Wstern Gulf of Mexico.
Somehwere between the mid 90s Erin track and a Floyd track, maybe even a Gloria track, if I had to guess.
Did I mention I'm not a professional, and this is very unofficial, and you should listen to LCH or HGX NWS offices and NHC for official weather forecasts?
I have to agree with Ed on this. The current pattern that is setting up inthe CONUS suggests that IF whatever develops even gets into the GOM, it would be an East GOM threat. My guess is that the East coast is the area that has to really follow this closely form here on out.
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- gatorcane
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[/quote]Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
there is no doubt in my mind that this will be a TD shortly and Fay soon enough:

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- Extremeweatherguy
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic
Personally I think it might go straight to Fay....remember that recon already found TD winds earlier in the night when this was merely an open wave (and not nearly this good looking). I would assume that if it closes off a circulation under convection that deep, there will be some minimal TS winds somewhere I'd venture. But yes, no doubt this is our next system to be classified.
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