ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#2361 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:14 am

Very impressive imagery gatorcane, thats some real deep convection there in the center of that big burst, these big bursts will probably help with the formation of the low level circulation I'd imagine. Recon is going to be very interesting indeed!
0 likes   

User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2362 Postby Normandy » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:15 am

I don't really think a system could look any better as an Invest. I'd be shocked if recon doesn't find something at the surface next mission. The system as a whole also seems to be heading a bit N of due west.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2363 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:15 am

nice midlevel circ... i have extrapoalted the best i could givien the quality..

I would like it if someone could save the individual images so we can make a longer loop
anyone up for it its easy..

here is the animation
Image
just go here and start saving every new image till you have about 20. than go
here
http://www.blibs.com/editor/
and up load to make gif image also when you do it increase the animation speed in the animation settings
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2364 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:16 am

This is one of the more interesting systems to track in recent years. It's a lurker with unknown potential.

Last night's 2-3am d-max came earlier than the night before. It's more consolidated. At this point I think questions over development should be obvious.

The system and environment are still weak and the track next to the islands, that doesn't appear to be lifting, should keep 92L's intensity down.

What we west coasters have to worry about is that parallel track happening 275 miles further west. But this very slow forward speed makes recurve more of a possibility as it allows CONUS patterns to evolve eastward.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145813
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2365 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:17 am

I am going to rant briefly: :)

I think that NHC has been slow dealing with this system in terms of releasing Special Statements,Calling the NWS offices of the area,posting watches and warnings and not upgrading it this morning.Here in Puerto Rico,normal life is going on,with schools,goverment working etc.Being the system so close to the islands in the Northern Leewards BVI,USVI and Puerto Rico,I think it has been prudent for NHC to issue watches and warnings for the residents to prepare.
0 likes   

User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3664
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2366 Postby drezee » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:17 am

Hello Hebert's Box!!!!



Image
0 likes   

User avatar
BatzVI
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 199
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:27 am
Location: St. Thomas, Virgin Islands

#2367 Postby BatzVI » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:17 am

Here is a webcam of downtown St. Thomas if anyone wants to see the conditions...The webcam is right above my office...been a little bit gusty, but I know it will be worse around quitting time....take care all in the NE Caribbean....stay safe

http://reservationsbvi.com/web%20cams/s ... 20cam.html
0 likes   

User avatar
BatzVI
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 199
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:27 am
Location: St. Thomas, Virgin Islands

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2368 Postby BatzVI » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:18 am

Cyclone....couldn't agree with you more!!!!!!!!!!!
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23692
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2369 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:18 am

cycloneye wrote:I am going to rant briefly: :)

I think that NHC has been slow dealing with this system in terms of releasing Special Statements,Calling the NWS offices of the area,posting watches and warnings and not upgrading it this morning.Here in Puerto Rico,normal life is going on,with schools,goverment working etc.Being the system so close to the islands in the Northern Leewards BVI,USVI and Puerto Rico,I think it has been prudent for NHC to issue watches and warnings for the residents to prepare.


Well said Luis -- yes I think NHC may need to do something over the next few hours to ensure people are prepared in Puerto Rico and surrounding areas --- if trends continue. Right now the lower-level winds are not too strong as Wxman pointed out so nothing to worry about but 92L could ramp up quicker than expected.

Stay safe :)
0 likes   

Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6684
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2370 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:21 am

Sanibel wrote:This is one of the more interesting systems to track in recent years. It's a lurker with unknown potential.

Last night's 2-3am d-max came earlier than the night before. It's more consolidated. At this point I think questions over development should be obvious.

The system and environment are still weak and the track next to the islands, that doesn't appear to be lifting, should keep 92L's intensity down.

What we west coasters have to worry about is that parallel track happening 275 miles further west. But this very slow forward speed makes recurve more of a possibility as it allows CONUS patterns to evolve eastward.



How quickly we forget. There were a ton of "interesting" storms in 2004 & 2005.
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#2371 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:21 am

Well the problem is it doesn't yet have an offical LLC so we can't upgrade it simply because we havent got the one last piece.

Is it possible to issue TS watches without a defined system by the way or would it just be gale warnings?

gatorcane, thats a very interesting comprasion, if the models shift westwards a little then that may not be far off, certainly one of the better ones to compare there!
Last edited by KWT on Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2372 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:22 am

Here is the center based on the low level inflow on radar and sat..
mid level is diplaced (presently) from whatever LLC exists ( fairly weak still) but should slowly become stacked today..

red lines are bands in the low levels, red circle is a rough extrapolation based on radar and sat and the white circle is the midlevel circ

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 29113
Age: 73
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:

Re: Re:

#2373 Postby vbhoutex » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:23 am

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
TTheriot1975 wrote:Hello all...just because I am going back to work next week, and wont be able to be on here like I usually am, I would like to know if SETX will be in trouble at all if this storm moves west into the GOM. Any possibilities of that at all? or is it too soon to tell? Thanks...



No place North of Belize is safe on the Atlantic Coast, but, unofficially, there is nothing to suggest any impact into the Wstern Gulf of Mexico.
Somehwere between the mid 90s Erin track and a Floyd track, maybe even a Gloria track, if I had to guess.

Did I mention I'm not a professional, and this is very unofficial, and you should listen to LCH or HGX NWS offices and NHC for official weather forecasts?


I have to agree with Ed on this. The current pattern that is setting up inthe CONUS suggests that IF whatever develops even gets into the GOM, it would be an East GOM threat. My guess is that the East coast is the area that has to really follow this closely form here on out.
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#2374 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:24 am

I doubt that LLC will become the center and a new one could form further east in the convection, where clearly the greatest atmospheric favorablity is presently.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23692
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#2375 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:25 am

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
[/quote]

there is no doubt in my mind that this will be a TD shortly and Fay soon enough:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#2376 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:26 am

Yeah, I would find it hard to believe that this is not upgraded at some point today.
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#2377 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:27 am

Yep I agree recon will probably find enough to upgrade this IMO but we shall see.

Even if it does manage to climb enough the effects to PR are likely going to be the same anyway, heavy rains and gusty winds.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ola
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 299
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2003 11:24 pm
Location: Dorado, Puerto Rico

#2378 Postby Ola » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:27 am

Hmmmmm

I leave for NYC tomorrow at 7am. I wonder if my flight out of San Juan will be cancelled or delayed......

What you guys think?
0 likes   

User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

#2379 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:27 am

It think its a TD/TS right now...
0 likes   

User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2380 Postby Normandy » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:27 am

Personally I think it might go straight to Fay....remember that recon already found TD winds earlier in the night when this was merely an open wave (and not nearly this good looking). I would assume that if it closes off a circulation under convection that deep, there will be some minimal TS winds somewhere I'd venture. But yes, no doubt this is our next system to be classified.
0 likes   


Return to “2008”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests