ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Evil Jeremy]

What time does recon head out today?

I think they took off 10 minutes ago.

[KWT]

Yep if recon finds a closed low then they may well upgrade it very soon afte rhte vortex, indeed thats very likely given how close to the leeward islands it is right now.

I have to admit I'll be surprised if this isn't a tropical depression right now to be honest.

[Aric Dunn]

here is the first radar animation i will update then as needed till it is in radar range of the PR radar site.
its only a matter of time till that midlevel works down its very well established..

[KWT]

Wow Aric yep that mid level circulation is really impressive, turning pretty quickly, as you say with the deep convection over it as well its only a matter of time before a LLC forms from that.

[loro-rojo]

This is a very nice looking wave if you ask me

[abajan]

Wow thats starting to get a classic look now, MLC is so powerful now and you've got to believe there is a LLC there now surely!

Looks like a TS already...scary!

Agreed, KWT. It should be interesting to see what kind of weather Barbuda (the island just north of Antigua) experiences over the next several hours. I strongly suspect it's already a TD. It just looks too good not to be IMO.

[Sanibel]

Has to be a TD:

[Extremeweatherguy]

That radar loop indicates that the center is just west of the deepest convection...right near 18N, 61.8W.

[wxman57]

There is certainly no LLC west of the convection where the models initialized. And with no obs beneath that convective burst, we can't tell if an LLC exists there either. Will have to wait for recon to confirm the presence of an LLC before upgrading. Satellite imagery can be quite deceiving, as you're not looking at the surface.

[wxman57]

That radar loop indicates that the center is just west of the deepest convection...right near 61.8W.

Remember, radar is looking way up above the surface due to the curvature of the earth's surface. You're looking at the mid levels of the disturbance.

[Sanibel]

I think Dvorak trumps in this case.

[srainhoutx]

That radar loop indicates that the center is just west of the deepest convection...right near 61.8W.

Remember, radar is looking way up above the surface due to the curvature of the earth's surface. You're looking at the mid levels of the disturbance.

A voice of reason folks. Let's see what RECON finds.

[KWT]

Yeah agreed wxman57 but I tend to find when you have such deep presistant convection like we've seen in the last 15hrs or so over 92L and with such a strong MLC a LLC probably is well on its way to forming as well around the same location.

At least today it looks really impressive, I have to admit I'll be a little surprised if this isn't a tropical depression now to be honest.

[gtsmith]

are we at the point to were the stronger this storm gets the farther west it gose and the weaker it is the farther north it gose?????????

it's the reverse...weaker tracks west...strong tracks north...coriolis effect

[greels]

If notification of a TD/TS is not made till sometime this afternoon, it will give the general public here in T&C very little notice....no one I have talked to here on the Island today is aware of what is going on to the west of us.....

If this storm is headed our way, we definately need to get word out to our populations in the flood prone areas of our Island of what is forthcoming and that will not happen until something "official" comes out from our Disaster Management
Offices!

[txag2005]

Stupid question...is recon the only way to confirm LLC exists?

[HURAKAN]

Stupid question...is recon the only way to confirm LLC exists?

No, you have surface obs, buoys, ships, radar, etc. But at the moment only RECON can confirm if a LLC is present.

[Cryomaniac]

Stupid question...is recon the only way to confirm LLC exists?

QiuckScat? Buoys?

[abajan]

...no one I have talked to here on the Island today is aware of what is going on to the west of us...

Surely you mean to the east of you.

[tolakram]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I really think the LLC is under that convection. With the vigorous mid level circulation evident and convection steady in the middle of it I have to think the LLC is stacked under it. I'd go by the looks like a duck rule and call it at least a TD.

I have no issues with being dead wrong so I would appreciate an explanation of any flaws in my thinking.



- Mark S