ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2441 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:12 am

txag2005 wrote:What time does recon head out today?


I think they took off 10 minutes ago.
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#2442 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:13 am

Yep if recon finds a closed low then they may well upgrade it very soon afte rhte vortex, indeed thats very likely given how close to the leeward islands it is right now.

I have to admit I'll be surprised if this isn't a tropical depression right now to be honest.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2443 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:13 am

here is the first radar animation i will update then as needed till it is in radar range of the PR radar site.
its only a matter of time till that midlevel works down its very well established..

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#2444 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:15 am

Wow Aric yep that mid level circulation is really impressive, turning pretty quickly, as you say with the deep convection over it as well its only a matter of time before a LLC forms from that.
0 likes   

loro-rojo
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 97
Joined: Tue Aug 08, 2006 7:11 pm
Location: San Juan, PR

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2445 Postby loro-rojo » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:15 am

This is a very nice looking wave if you ask me :eek:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4238
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Re:

#2446 Postby abajan » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:15 am

KWT wrote:Wow thats starting to get a classic look now, MLC is so powerful now and you've got to believe there is a LLC there now surely!

Looks like a TS already...scary!
Agreed, KWT. It should be interesting to see what kind of weather Barbuda (the island just north of Antigua) experiences over the next several hours. I strongly suspect it's already a TD. It just looks too good not to be IMO.
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2447 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:16 am

Has to be a TD:



Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#2448 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:17 am

That radar loop indicates that the center is just west of the deepest convection...right near 18N, 61.8W.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22997
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2449 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:18 am

There is certainly no LLC west of the convection where the models initialized. And with no obs beneath that convective burst, we can't tell if an LLC exists there either. Will have to wait for recon to confirm the presence of an LLC before upgrading. Satellite imagery can be quite deceiving, as you're not looking at the surface.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22997
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re:

#2450 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:19 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:That radar loop indicates that the center is just west of the deepest convection...right near 61.8W.


Remember, radar is looking way up above the surface due to the curvature of the earth's surface. You're looking at the mid levels of the disturbance.
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2451 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:20 am

I think Dvorak trumps in this case.
0 likes   

User avatar
srainhoutx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6919
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
Location: Haywood County, NC
Contact:

Re: Re:

#2452 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:21 am

wxman57 wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:That radar loop indicates that the center is just west of the deepest convection...right near 61.8W.


Remember, radar is looking way up above the surface due to the curvature of the earth's surface. You're looking at the mid levels of the disturbance.


A voice of reason folks. Let's see what RECON finds. :wink:
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#2453 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:21 am

Yeah agreed wxman57 but I tend to find when you have such deep presistant convection like we've seen in the last 15hrs or so over 92L and with such a strong MLC a LLC probably is well on its way to forming as well around the same location.

At least today it looks really impressive, I have to admit I'll be a little surprised if this isn't a tropical depression now to be honest.
0 likes   

gtsmith
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 181
Joined: Fri Sep 24, 2004 7:05 am
Location: West Palm Beach, FL

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2454 Postby gtsmith » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:22 am

hurricanefloyd5 wrote:are we at the point to were the stronger this storm gets the farther west it gose and the weaker it is the farther north it gose?????????


it's the reverse...weaker tracks west...strong tracks north...coriolis effect
0 likes   

greels
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 130
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 1:16 pm
Location: Somerset MA

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2455 Postby greels » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:22 am

If notification of a TD/TS is not made till sometime this afternoon, it will give the general public here in T&C very little notice....no one I have talked to here on the Island today is aware of what is going on to the west of us.....

If this storm is headed our way, we definately need to get word out to our populations in the flood prone areas of our Island of what is forthcoming and that will not happen until something "official" comes out from our Disaster Management
Offices!
Last edited by greels on Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

txag2005
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 229
Joined: Thu Jul 17, 2008 1:16 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2456 Postby txag2005 » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:23 am

Stupid question...is recon the only way to confirm LLC exists?
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2457 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:24 am

txag2005 wrote:Stupid question...is recon the only way to confirm LLC exists?


No, you have surface obs, buoys, ships, radar, etc. But at the moment only RECON can confirm if a LLC is present.
0 likes   

Cryomaniac
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1289
Joined: Tue Aug 15, 2006 2:26 pm
Location: Newark, Nottinghamshire, UK
Contact:

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2458 Postby Cryomaniac » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:25 am

txag2005 wrote:Stupid question...is recon the only way to confirm LLC exists?


QiuckScat? Buoys?
0 likes   

User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4238
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2459 Postby abajan » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:28 am

greels wrote:...no one I have talked to here on the Island today is aware of what is going on to the west of us...
Surely you mean to the east of you.
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20020
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2460 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:28 am

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I really think the LLC is under that convection. With the vigorous mid level circulation evident and convection steady in the middle of it I have to think the LLC is stacked under it. I'd go by the looks like a duck rule and call it at least a TD.

I have no issues with being dead wrong so I would appreciate an explanation of any flaws in my thinking. :)

Image

- Mark S
Last edited by tolakram on Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   


Return to “2008”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 15 guests