ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2801 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:26 pm

Closed circulation per Air Force Plane at 17.9°N 64.0°W.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2802 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:27 pm

Ok, Luis thanks....I thought I saw the same thing...
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#2803 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:27 pm

To clear up any confusion.

Image
Last edited by RL3AO on Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2804 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:27 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2805 Postby txag2005 » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:28 pm

cycloneye wrote:Closed circulation per Air Force Plane at 17.9°N 64.0°W.


Isn't that the last piece of the puzzle before this thing was to be a true TD/TS?
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2806 Postby NEXRAD » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:28 pm

The new convection (vicinity of 18N 63W) will likely become dominant over the next several hours. Look for the convective region farther east to diminish or become absorbed within an expanding new MCS.

- Jay
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2807 Postby BigA » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:29 pm

It seems to me foolish to upgrade based on the closed circulation on recon if the general expectation is that the system will eventually consolidate its more permanant LLC under the MLC farther to the east.
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Re:

#2808 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:29 pm

RL3AO wrote:To clear up any confusion.

Image



ummmm.... you cant say that without a vortex... right now all you can go off of is some hdobs
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Re:

#2809 Postby Iune » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:29 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Wow, this would be the 3rd system to go straight to TS status this year in a row.

Let's See
Arthur -Check
Bertha - No
Cristobal - No
Dolly - Yes
Edouard - No
Fay? - Yes
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Re: Re:

#2810 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:30 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
ummmm.... you cant say that without a vortex... right now all you can go off of is some hdobs



Yeah. I should have added possible. I did it too quick.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2811 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:30 pm

Just from visible observation the current pseudo CDO is tracking north enough of west to suggest missing the islands to the north. The models might be accurate to this. This warm-up and dry out is just another pulse. We should be aware of that by now since 92L has done this several times over the last few days. The north of the islands track should cut off the southern inflow enough to keep 92L's intensity at bay while it tracks north of the majors. No guarantee of course. Tonight's refire should be interesting because it should happen closer to the islands. What is sucking that north quadrant up into an oval shape I don't know. Could be something left to the Atlantic ULL. No matter, 92L will outpower it soon.

Tracking models are the most important thing now.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2812 Postby Aquawind » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:32 pm

BigA wrote:It seems to me foolish to upgrade based on the closed circulation on recon if the general expectation is that the system will eventually consolidate its more permanant LLC under the MLC farther to the east.



Have to admit the red dot is not what I was thinking would be the eventual center.. VDM needed.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2813 Postby MWatkins » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:32 pm

With the winds as light as they are, and the pressure higher than what is being reported to the east, that could be a decaying vortex or as DOrtt mentioned in another thread an eddy.

MW
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2814 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:32 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2815 Postby NEXRAD » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:33 pm

Sanibel wrote:Just from visible observation the current pseudo CDO is tracking north enough of west to suggest missing the islands to the north. The models might be accurate to this. This warm-up and dry out is just another pulse. We should be aware of that by now since 92L has done this several times over the last few days. The north of the islands track should cut off the southern inflow enough to keep 92L's intensity at bay while it tracks north of the majors. No guarantee of course. Tonight's refire should be interesting because it should happen closer to the islands. What is sucking that north quadrant up into an oval shape I don't know. Could be something left to the Atlantic ULL. No matter, 92L will outpower it soon.

Tracking models are the most important thing now.


Hey Sanibel,

The oval shape is being prompted by the flow about the upper low situated over Ern Cuba. That feature is elongating, but the overall poleward outflow should remain across 92L's NW quadrant, and thus the system will likely retain a more oblong overall appearance on IRWV for the next 12 hours or so. As Atlantic ridging becomes more dominant aloft - and the ULL breaks down - look for a more symmetric shape to manifest.

- Jay
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2816 Postby baygirl_1 » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:33 pm

x-y-no wrote:
txag2005 wrote:Any thoughts on when we can expect a upgrade to TD status? The last thing I want is for the NHC to jump the bullet, but if this thing is going to be a threat, I hope we can give people enough time to prepare.


Right now based on recon 5pm looks kind of unlikely - my guess would be 11pm - and it may very well be TS Fay at that point.

Question: Why wouldn't they upgrade now? This system is so close to the islands down there, wouldn't it be best to upgrade to get needed info, warnings to those folks?
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Re: Re:

#2817 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:33 pm

Phoenix's Song wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Wow, this would be the 3rd system to go straight to TS status this year in a row.

Let's See
Arthur -Check
Bertha - No
Cristobal - No
Dolly - Yes
Edouard - No
Fay? - Yes

Ok, so maybe not in a row, but it's still three.
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#2818 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:33 pm

Yeah the pressure is pretty high at that region where the planes have found west winds, probably is just an eddy as its wy west of everything, still may be enough to make the NHC upgrade who knows as its probably not far from their best track feature they've been using which is the weak LLC.
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#2819 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:35 pm

Good call, and I can't really imagine why there won't eventually be something at the SFC near the vigorous MLC. There are hardly any clouds over near that spot west of the deep storms.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2820 Postby txag2005 » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:36 pm

baygirl_1 wrote:
x-y-no wrote:
txag2005 wrote:Any thoughts on when we can expect a upgrade to TD status? The last thing I want is for the NHC to jump the bullet, but if this thing is going to be a threat, I hope we can give people enough time to prepare.


Right now based on recon 5pm looks kind of unlikely - my guess would be 11pm - and it may very well be TS Fay at that point.

Question: Why wouldn't they upgrade now? This system is so close to the islands down there, wouldn't it be best to upgrade to get needed info, warnings to those folks?


I would guess in the interest of maintaining the standard they have set for upgrading a storm. The last thing we want is for the NHC storms without solid reasoning, because at that point, classification of a storm as a TD/TS may not be taken as serious.
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