ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[cycloneye]

Closed circulation per Air Force Plane at 17.9°N 64.0°W.

[deltadog03]

Ok, Luis thanks....I thought I saw the same thing...

[RL3AO]

To clear up any confusion.

[Aric Dunn]

[txag2005]

Closed circulation per Air Force Plane at 17.9°N 64.0°W.

Isn't that the last piece of the puzzle before this thing was to be a true TD/TS?

[NEXRAD]

The new convection (vicinity of 18N 63W) will likely become dominant over the next several hours. Look for the convective region farther east to diminish or become absorbed within an expanding new MCS.

- Jay

[BigA]

It seems to me foolish to upgrade based on the closed circulation on recon if the general expectation is that the system will eventually consolidate its more permanant LLC under the MLC farther to the east.

[Aric Dunn]

To clear up any confusion.

ummmm.... you cant say that without a vortex... right now all you can go off of is some hdobs

[Iune]

Wow, this would be the 3rd system to go straight to TS status this year in a row.

Let's See
Arthur -Check
Bertha - No
Cristobal - No
Dolly - Yes
Edouard - No
Fay? - Yes

[RL3AO]

ummmm.... you cant say that without a vortex... right now all you can go off of is some hdobs

Yeah. I should have added possible. I did it too quick.

[Sanibel]

Just from visible observation the current pseudo CDO is tracking north enough of west to suggest missing the islands to the north. The models might be accurate to this. This warm-up and dry out is just another pulse. We should be aware of that by now since 92L has done this several times over the last few days. The north of the islands track should cut off the southern inflow enough to keep 92L's intensity at bay while it tracks north of the majors. No guarantee of course. Tonight's refire should be interesting because it should happen closer to the islands. What is sucking that north quadrant up into an oval shape I don't know. Could be something left to the Atlantic ULL. No matter, 92L will outpower it soon.

Tracking models are the most important thing now.

[Aquawind]

It seems to me foolish to upgrade based on the closed circulation on recon if the general expectation is that the system will eventually consolidate its more permanant LLC under the MLC farther to the east.

Have to admit the red dot is not what I was thinking would be the eventual center.. VDM needed.

[MWatkins]

With the winds as light as they are, and the pressure higher than what is being reported to the east, that could be a decaying vortex or as DOrtt mentioned in another thread an eddy.

MW

[Aric Dunn]

[NEXRAD]

Just from visible observation the current pseudo CDO is tracking north enough of west to suggest missing the islands to the north. The models might be accurate to this. This warm-up and dry out is just another pulse. We should be aware of that by now since 92L has done this several times over the last few days. The north of the islands track should cut off the southern inflow enough to keep 92L's intensity at bay while it tracks north of the majors. No guarantee of course. Tonight's refire should be interesting because it should happen closer to the islands. What is sucking that north quadrant up into an oval shape I don't know. Could be something left to the Atlantic ULL. No matter, 92L will outpower it soon.

Tracking models are the most important thing now.

Hey Sanibel,

The oval shape is being prompted by the flow about the upper low situated over Ern Cuba. That feature is elongating, but the overall poleward outflow should remain across 92L's NW quadrant, and thus the system will likely retain a more oblong overall appearance on IRWV for the next 12 hours or so. As Atlantic ridging becomes more dominant aloft - and the ULL breaks down - look for a more symmetric shape to manifest.

- Jay

[baygirl_1]

Any thoughts on when we can expect a upgrade to TD status? The last thing I want is for the NHC to jump the bullet, but if this thing is going to be a threat, I hope we can give people enough time to prepare.

Right now based on recon 5pm looks kind of unlikely - my guess would be 11pm - and it may very well be TS Fay at that point.

Question: Why wouldn't they upgrade now? This system is so close to the islands down there, wouldn't it be best to upgrade to get needed info, warnings to those folks?

[HurricaneHunter914]

Wow, this would be the 3rd system to go straight to TS status this year in a row.

Let's See
Arthur -Check
Bertha - No
Cristobal - No
Dolly - Yes
Edouard - No
Fay? - Yes

Ok, so maybe not in a row, but it's still three.

[KWT]

Yeah the pressure is pretty high at that region where the planes have found west winds, probably is just an eddy as its wy west of everything, still may be enough to make the NHC upgrade who knows as its probably not far from their best track feature they've been using which is the weak LLC.

[deltadog03]

Good call, and I can't really imagine why there won't eventually be something at the SFC near the vigorous MLC. There are hardly any clouds over near that spot west of the deep storms.

[txag2005]

Any thoughts on when we can expect a upgrade to TD status? The last thing I want is for the NHC to jump the bullet, but if this thing is going to be a threat, I hope we can give people enough time to prepare.

Right now based on recon 5pm looks kind of unlikely - my guess would be 11pm - and it may very well be TS Fay at that point.

Question: Why wouldn't they upgrade now? This system is so close to the islands down there, wouldn't it be best to upgrade to get needed info, warnings to those folks?

I would guess in the interest of maintaining the standard they have set for upgrading a storm. The last thing we want is for the NHC storms without solid reasoning, because at that point, classification of a storm as a TD/TS may not be taken as serious.