ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3041 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:25 pm

Reminds me a llittle of Jeanne. It won't likely become a hurricane before DR, also I expect it to move just north of the coastline.

I say based on surface data JMO it is a depression. We will see.
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#3042 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:25 pm

PR probably won't do anything to a system like this, its not organised and doesn't have a inner core so as long as convection keeps bursting then there isn;t an awful lot to disrupt. If it hits DR square on and stays over there for any amount of time well that may be a different matter but who knows.

Does look like the circulation at lower levels is finally underneath that big convective blob that blew up recently, should finally see some development start to occur soon I'd have thought.
0 likes   

User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5201
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3043 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:26 pm

Well If this girl goes through or S of PR you can throw the models thus far out it seems and go with the ones with the more S guidance but then in 48hrs there may be nothing to look at?


Well, that's true that if it does go south and right through the meat of Puerto Rico and the mountainous land areas to the west, then this weekend there won't be anything left of this developing storm but an open wave, but of course flooding could claim many lives, so that's not a good thing either, but yet, it will keep this from developing that's for sure, especially since the conditions in the eastern gulf suppose to be fairly hostile...if on the other hand it was to go north of the islands, that could geat really dangerous too in terms of a potential very strong hurricane down the road....
Last edited by ConvergenceZone on Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6132
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: Re:

#3044 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:26 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
RL3AO wrote:In my amateur opinion, I think there is a closed circulation just north of St. Croix.


IMHO it appears that 92L may be running out of time to get its act together before it plows into the first of the big islands. It better pull up soon or all the work that it has done to try and establish itself will be for nothing. As for me, I'm fine with that...92L can fall apart and go elsewhere. That being said, my prayers are with all of the peope in the Greater Antilles...As we all know even minor systems can cause major problems in that part of the world.

SouthFLTropics

Dont get your hopes up yet. It looks like its diving sw because thats the mlc moving toward the llc. Based on the movement of the LLC, it looks like it may barely skirt it, if at all. PR doesnt appear to be a huge problem with it...maybe 3 hours of slight disruption, but DR could be a bigger problem. However, if it continues on heading or just a tad bit north, then it will likely miss DR. That could be a very serious situation and it is all too real.
0 likes   

cpdaman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3131
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:44 am
Location: SPB county (gulf stream)

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3045 Postby cpdaman » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:27 pm

a little off topic , but i wonder how many times the DR or Cuba has saved the SE Us from major hurricanes
0 likes   

User avatar
BatzVI
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 199
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:27 am
Location: St. Thomas, Virgin Islands

#3046 Postby BatzVI » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:28 pm

I just went out on my deck.....I'm about 900 ft up in St. Thomas with a north-northeast exposure and could see some lightning toward Tortola and watching what clouds I could see, they were moving quickly from north to south, however, there was hardly any breeze....
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#3047 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:29 pm

Image
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20036
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3048 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:30 pm

need more buoys.

Image

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


If you look at the loop it seems obvious to me that the convection has jumped over the LLC (or swirl that should become the LLC). I say a TD at 11 if not sooner, depending on how this new deep convection looks.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
Last edited by tolakram on Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

txag2005
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 229
Joined: Thu Jul 17, 2008 1:16 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3049 Postby txag2005 » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:31 pm

I've been gone the last few hours. How are things looking? Are we still expecting development in the next 12-24 hours?
0 likes   

User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5201
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3050 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:31 pm

cpdaman wrote:a little off topic , but i wonder how many times the DR or Cuba has saved the SE Us from major hurricanes


good question, but I know that it's happened A LOT! I remember watching many canes basically get shredded apart by going over the islands. Of course if it's a decent hurricane, it usually generates someone after it emerges if the conditions support if, but if it's just a tropical storm of weak cane, it won't really have that chance...
0 likes   

User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5201
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3051 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:32 pm

cpdaman wrote:a little off topic , but i wonder how many times the DR or Cuba has saved the SE Us from major hurricanes


good question, but I know that it's happened A LOT! I remember watching many canes basically get shredded apart by going over the islands. Of course if it's a decent hurricane, it usually generates someone after it emerges if the conditions support if, but if it's just a tropical storm of weak cane, it won't really have that chance...

EDIT: Please duplicate this accidental duplicate post. Thanks!
Last edited by ConvergenceZone on Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6132
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re:

#3052 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:32 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image

It now appears that the mlc and llc are extremely close to being stacked. They look to be within just a few miles of each other now. Maybe 2 or 3 more images before they are. I bet that theres a good chance that an upgrade may take place at 11. Anyone agree?
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

#3053 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:34 pm

you can actually see the midlevel entering radar range about 50 to 80 miles ene of that one large cell
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20036
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3054 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:35 pm

The dark color (dot) appears. :)

Image

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#3055 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:35 pm

Image

Lets invert the colors!
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38115
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Re:

#3056 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:35 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Image

It now appears that the mlc and llc are extremely close to being stacked. They look to be within just a few miles of each other now. Maybe 2 or 3 more images before they are. I bet that theres a good chance that an upgrade may take place at 11. Anyone agree?


I really think there may be an upgrade coming at 11 too. I keep checking here every few minutes for any signs. :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
fci
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3324
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:29 am
Location: Lake Worth, FL

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3057 Postby fci » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:35 pm

cpdaman wrote:a little off topic , but i wonder how many times the DR or Cuba has saved the SE Us from major hurricanes


or at least disrupted them.

I can quickly think of Ernesto (we call him the "leaf blower" down here in FL) and David.
David was fierce before it crossed Cuba and was significantly less dangerous when it grazed us down here.
0 likes   

User avatar
sgastorm
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 66
Age: 57
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 5:30 pm
Location: Valdosta, GA

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3058 Postby sgastorm » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:37 pm

New satellite estimate.

14/2345 UTC 18.5N 63.0W T2.0/2.0 92L
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146178
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3059 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:38 pm

Best track position at 00z.

AL, 92, 2008081500, , BEST, 0, 183N, 646W, 30, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 80,
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3060 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:38 pm

sgastorm wrote:New satellite estimate.

14/2345 UTC 18.5N 63.0W T2.0/2.0 92L


lol thats the midlevel circ...
0 likes   


Return to “2008”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests