Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

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Praxus
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1241 Postby Praxus » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:41 pm

The implications for intensity with all the stalling and drifting are certainly not good. Hope this run doesn't pan out.
Last edited by Praxus on Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1242 Postby boca » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:41 pm

Mile great to see you posting again.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1243 Postby GreenSky » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:43 pm

Praxus wrote:The implications for intensity with all the stalling are certainly not good. Hope this run doesn't pan out.


Well there could be wind shear to weaken it...Frances stalled off the east coast of Florida and weakened considerably before making landfall due to wind shear.
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#1244 Postby rockyman » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:43 pm

GFS--final landfall near Houston, TX
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Re:

#1245 Postby blp » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:43 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:the system is not moving fast... it is not a wave because it is moving too fast... there, somehow, is nothing at the surface


I can't understand why that sustained burst today did not lower pressures at the least. If it isn't speed then could it be environmental instead of structural? Maybee the models are seeing a different environment variable in the Bahamas that it does not currently have. I would say most of the models outside of the HWRF any maybee the earlier GFDL runs have picked up well on the non development that has occured today.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1246 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:45 pm

And second CONUS landfall on the Upper TX at 300 hours... goodness, what a run.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1247 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:45 pm

Brent wrote:Well this is an odd run... south of LOUISIANA at 216 hours. :double:

Image


Not odd for a storm to affect SFL and then goto Louisiana. Andrew and Katrina.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1248 Postby Jason_B » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:46 pm

So I guess GFS has a strong ridge building in.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1249 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:46 pm

Blown_away wrote:
Brent wrote:Well this is an odd run... south of LOUISIANA at 216 hours. :double:

Image


Not odd for a storm to affect SFL and then goto Louisiana. Andrew and Katrina.


It's odd because of the drastic shift from the last run.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1250 Postby Rainband » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:47 pm

There is no center so these runs are just not reliable at this point. That is the only thing that is certain...right now.
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#1251 Postby Miami Storm » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:49 pm

Thank you Vortex.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1252 Postby boca » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:51 pm

True but the trough isn't as deep to pick up 92L.Then high pressure builds in so no escape route to the north, but west across S FL into the Gulf. 92 L on sat is getting better organized with black appearing on ir.
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Re:

#1253 Postby Duddy » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:51 pm

rockyman wrote:GFS--final landfall near Houston, TX


HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA!!!

I laughed out loud for a minute after I saw that image of it South of LA!

This run was COMPLETELY different from the others. If this is a trend, someone along the Gulf coast is screwed.

A side note, someone on here predicted it hitting Texas awhile back. Props to him.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1254 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:53 pm

boca wrote:True but the trough isn't as deep to pick up 92L.Then high pressure builds in so no escape route to the north, but west across S FL into the Gulf. 92 L on sat is getting better organized with black appearing on ir.


Hey you're still up?
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Re: Re:

#1255 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:53 pm

Duddy wrote:
rockyman wrote:GFS--final landfall near Houston, TX


HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA!!!

I laughed out loud for a minute after I saw that image of it South of LA!

This run was COMPLETELY different from the others. If this is a trend, someone along the Gulf coast is screwed.

A side note, someone on here predicted it hitting Texas awhile back. Props to him.


I didn't explicity say Texas but I did predict a straight WNW track similar to the 1919 storm.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: Re:

#1256 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:54 pm

Duddy wrote:
rockyman wrote:GFS--final landfall near Houston, TX


HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA!!!

I laughed out loud for a minute after I saw that image of it South of LA!

This run was COMPLETELY different from the others. If this is a trend, someone along the Gulf coast is screwed.

A side note, someone on here predicted it hitting Texas awhile back. Props to him.



I knew this would get my fellow Houston residents back posting. But that is on crack. All previous models runs of every reliable model I can think of took a developed system well East, courtesy of a Mississippi Valley trough. I remember a GFS run that took a barely tropical wave to Houston, about two days ago, and if 92L never develops, I welcome the rain, but GFS and Euro have been semi-consistent on the trough.


I hope this doesn't drive the SETX posters back away.
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#1257 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:57 pm

When I see such giant shifts from run to run, I usually wait until I see a little bit of consistency before I buy into it too much. If this same trend continues into the 6z GFS and the 12z GFS and if the 00z EURO also buys into it, then I will be much more alert to this actually being a serious possibility. For now though, I am just going to consider it a worst case scenario and pray that it does not happen. Really, the only small bit of good news that I can see for myself personally out of this run would be that my flight on Tuesday would likely get out smoothly from MCO if the storm stalled that far east. For everyone else though, I do not see much good news at all from this run (unless you live in the Carolinas).
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1258 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:58 pm

Remember the threat/promise to take my 200 lb plus pasty flabby body streaking if the GFDL with a Cat 4 hitting Houston (back during 94L) verified?


Ditto, I'll announce time and place, and wear old torn briefs pulled up in a wedgy, and run around if public, if current 92L, as a closed low, ever landfalls West of 93ºW.
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Re: Re:

#1259 Postby Duddy » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:58 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
Duddy wrote:
rockyman wrote:GFS--final landfall near Houston, TX


HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA!!!

I laughed out loud for a minute after I saw that image of it South of LA!

This run was COMPLETELY different from the others. If this is a trend, someone along the Gulf coast is screwed.

A side note, someone on here predicted it hitting Texas awhile back. Props to him.



I knew this would get my fellow Houston residents back posting. But that is on crack. All previous models runs of every reliable model I can think of took a developed system well East, courtesy of a Mississippi Valley trough. I remember a GFS run that took a barely tropical wave to Houston, about two days ago, and if 92L never develops, I welcome the rain, but GFS and Euro have been semi-consistent on the trough.


I hope this doesn't drive the SETX posters back away.


Dude, as long as atleast a single thunderstorm is moving in the tropics, I'll be on here every 10 minutes.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1260 Postby boca » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:59 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
boca wrote:True but the trough isn't as deep to pick up 92L.Then high pressure builds in so no escape route to the north, but west across S FL into the Gulf. 92 L on sat is getting better organized with black appearing on ir.


Hey you're still up?

After seeing that run who can sleep.
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