Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Praxus]

The implications for intensity with all the stalling and drifting are certainly not good. Hope this run doesn't pan out.

[boca]

Mile great to see you posting again.

[GreenSky]

The implications for intensity with all the stalling are certainly not good. Hope this run doesn't pan out.

Well there could be wind shear to weaken it...Frances stalled off the east coast of Florida and weakened considerably before making landfall due to wind shear.

[rockyman]

GFS--final landfall near Houston, TX

[blp]

the system is not moving fast... it is not a wave because it is moving too fast... there, somehow, is nothing at the surface

I can't understand why that sustained burst today did not lower pressures at the least. If it isn't speed then could it be environmental instead of structural? Maybee the models are seeing a different environment variable in the Bahamas that it does not currently have. I would say most of the models outside of the HWRF any maybee the earlier GFDL runs have picked up well on the non development that has occured today.

[srainhoutx]

And second CONUS landfall on the Upper TX at 300 hours... goodness, what a run.

[Blown Away]

Well this is an odd run... south of LOUISIANA at 216 hours.

Not odd for a storm to affect SFL and then goto Louisiana. Andrew and Katrina.

[Jason_B]

So I guess GFS has a strong ridge building in.

[Brent]

Well this is an odd run... south of LOUISIANA at 216 hours.

Not odd for a storm to affect SFL and then goto Louisiana. Andrew and Katrina.

It's odd because of the drastic shift from the last run.

[Rainband]

There is no center so these runs are just not reliable at this point. That is the only thing that is certain...right now.

[Miami Storm]

Thank you Vortex.

[boca]

True but the trough isn't as deep to pick up 92L.Then high pressure builds in so no escape route to the north, but west across S FL into the Gulf. 92 L on sat is getting better organized with black appearing on ir.

[Duddy]

GFS--final landfall near Houston, TX

HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA!!!

I laughed out loud for a minute after I saw that image of it South of LA!

This run was COMPLETELY different from the others. If this is a trend, someone along the Gulf coast is screwed.

A side note, someone on here predicted it hitting Texas awhile back. Props to him.

[SouthFloridawx]

True but the trough isn't as deep to pick up 92L.Then high pressure builds in so no escape route to the north, but west across S FL into the Gulf. 92 L on sat is getting better organized with black appearing on ir.

Hey you're still up?

[CrazyC83]

GFS--final landfall near Houston, TX

HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA!!!

I laughed out loud for a minute after I saw that image of it South of LA!

This run was COMPLETELY different from the others. If this is a trend, someone along the Gulf coast is screwed.

A side note, someone on here predicted it hitting Texas awhile back. Props to him.

I didn't explicity say Texas but I did predict a straight WNW track similar to the 1919 storm.

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS--final landfall near Houston, TX

HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA!!!

I laughed out loud for a minute after I saw that image of it South of LA!

This run was COMPLETELY different from the others. If this is a trend, someone along the Gulf coast is screwed.

A side note, someone on here predicted it hitting Texas awhile back. Props to him.

I knew this would get my fellow Houston residents back posting. But that is on crack. All previous models runs of every reliable model I can think of took a developed system well East, courtesy of a Mississippi Valley trough. I remember a GFS run that took a barely tropical wave to Houston, about two days ago, and if 92L never develops, I welcome the rain, but GFS and Euro have been semi-consistent on the trough.


I hope this doesn't drive the SETX posters back away.

[Extremeweatherguy]

When I see such giant shifts from run to run, I usually wait until I see a little bit of consistency before I buy into it too much. If this same trend continues into the 6z GFS and the 12z GFS and if the 00z EURO also buys into it, then I will be much more alert to this actually being a serious possibility. For now though, I am just going to consider it a worst case scenario and pray that it does not happen. Really, the only small bit of good news that I can see for myself personally out of this run would be that my flight on Tuesday would likely get out smoothly from MCO if the storm stalled that far east. For everyone else though, I do not see much good news at all from this run (unless you live in the Carolinas).

[Ed Mahmoud]

Remember the threat/promise to take my 200 lb plus pasty flabby body streaking if the GFDL with a Cat 4 hitting Houston (back during 94L) verified?


Ditto, I'll announce time and place, and wear old torn briefs pulled up in a wedgy, and run around if public, if current 92L, as a closed low, ever landfalls West of 93ºW.

[Duddy]

GFS--final landfall near Houston, TX

HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA!!!

I laughed out loud for a minute after I saw that image of it South of LA!

This run was COMPLETELY different from the others. If this is a trend, someone along the Gulf coast is screwed.

A side note, someone on here predicted it hitting Texas awhile back. Props to him.

I knew this would get my fellow Houston residents back posting. But that is on crack. All previous models runs of every reliable model I can think of took a developed system well East, courtesy of a Mississippi Valley trough. I remember a GFS run that took a barely tropical wave to Houston, about two days ago, and if 92L never develops, I welcome the rain, but GFS and Euro have been semi-consistent on the trough.


I hope this doesn't drive the SETX posters back away.

Dude, as long as atleast a single thunderstorm is moving in the tropics, I'll be on here every 10 minutes.

[boca]

True but the trough isn't as deep to pick up 92L.Then high pressure builds in so no escape route to the north, but west across S FL into the Gulf. 92 L on sat is getting better organized with black appearing on ir.

Hey you're still up?

After seeing that run who can sleep.