Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Duddy
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 363
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:07 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC

Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1261 Postby Duddy » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:00 am

boca wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:
boca wrote:True but the trough isn't as deep to pick up 92L.Then high pressure builds in so no escape route to the north, but west across S FL into the Gulf. 92 L on sat is getting better organized with black appearing on ir.


Hey you're still up?

After seeing that run who can sleep.


Certainly not I.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
srainhoutx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6919
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
Location: Haywood County, NC
Contact:
Contact srainhoutx

Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1262 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:00 am

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Remember the threat/promise to take my 200 lb plus pasty flabby body streaking if the GFDL with a Cat 4 hitting Houston (back during 94L) verified?


Ditto, I'll announce time and place, and wear old torn briefs pulled up in a wedgy, and run around if public, if current 92L, as a closed low, ever landfalls West of 93ºW.


Don't do it Ed :ggreen: Goodnight folks. Interesting time ahead.
0 likes   
Top
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6684
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1263 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:01 am

Brent wrote:Well this is an odd run... south of LOUISIANA at 216 hours. :double:

Image



It won't happen.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10147
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1264 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:02 am

PLEASE POST THE INTENSITY OF THE GFS WHEN IT LANDFALLS IN SFL AND TEXAS.
thankyou :D
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6367
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1265 Postby boca » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:02 am

Ed make sure you were a shirt.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1266 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:03 am

Blown_away wrote:PLEASE POST THE INTENSITY OF THE GFS WHEN IT LANDFALLS IN SFL AND TEXAS.
thankyou :D


There is no intensity measure with the GFS like GFDL...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1267 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:04 am

Ivanhater wrote:
Blown_away wrote:PLEASE POST THE INTENSITY OF THE GFS WHEN IT LANDFALLS IN SFL AND TEXAS.
thankyou :D


There is no intensity measure with the GFS like GFDL...



Yea Blown away but it is in our back yard again...
0 likes   
Top
Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1268 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:12 am

boca wrote:Ed make sure you were a shirt.



Not gonna happen. Hudson Bay still has ice, September cold fronts are reaching Texas in August, I'll be getting excited about GFS 324 hour snow/frz rain predictions for SE Texas by early November, if I had to guess.
0 likes   
Top
MWatkins
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2574
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 7:51 pm
Location: SE Florida
Contact:
Contact MWatkins

Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1269 Postby MWatkins » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:15 am

Ya know...I just thought of something. The GFDL has been reflecting a furious 50 knot 35M vortex at t+6 hours every run for a long time now.

Perhaps it is the model's attemt to represent the persistent, strong mid-level center that we are seeing. That would also explain why the model holds onto the cyclone even without a closed surface circ...

Hmmmm...

MW
0 likes   
Top
TTheriot1975
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 113
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2007 8:12 pm
Location: Southeast Texas

Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1270 Postby TTheriot1975 » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:17 am

What is going on here...lol...Do we SE Texans have a big bullseye on our heads? What is the deal with all these storms the past few years...lol...hopefully this is a fluke and it has nothing to do with us in the near future. But, since Edouard was supposed to be this nasty storm...ha ha ha...I still have my 2 cases of bottled water and some canned food and batteries...thats if anything makes it here..
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6108
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1271 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:18 am

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
boca wrote:Ed make sure you were a shirt.



Not gonna happen. Hudson Bay still has ice, September cold fronts are reaching Texas in August, I'll be getting excited about GFS 324 hour snow/frz rain predictions for SE Texas by early November, if I had to guess.

God I hope so...i cant wait until we finally get a real snowstorm here in NTX
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1272 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:19 am

00Z Canadian much further south and west..

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
zaqxsw75050
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 178
Joined: Thu Mar 06, 2008 4:21 pm
Location: Hong Kong

Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1273 Postby zaqxsw75050 » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:22 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:
boca wrote:Ed make sure you were a shirt.



Not gonna happen. Hudson Bay still has ice, September cold fronts are reaching Texas in August, I'll be getting excited about GFS 324 hour snow/frz rain predictions for SE Texas by early November, if I had to guess.

God I hope so...i cant wait until we finally get a real snowstorm here in NTX


+1...

It was painful to watch all the snow just to the west while i got nothing last time...

0z GFS run was pretty crazy... If it verify, there will be a lot of damage across the country...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9621
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

#1274 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:26 am

>>Hey Steve, those runs do not intialize the suspected center correctly nor do they take into account current motion....

Yeah I know. That's what was available, so I posted it.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re:

#1275 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:31 am

Steve wrote:>>Hey Steve, those runs do not intialize the suspected center correctly nor do they take into account current motion....

Yeah I know. That's what was available, so I posted it.


Hey Steve, this has got to be one of the hardest setup Ive seen in a while..I hate those collapse of steering dynamics with Highs building back in..gonna be a stressful few days for sure :lol:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1276 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:34 am

Ivanhater wrote:00Z Canadian much further south and west..

Image
Not really. Take a look at where the 12z Canadian put this.. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

looks pretty similar, IMO. If anything, the 00z might actually be a tad further east.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9621
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

#1277 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:41 am

Yeah, don't drink or burn it all just yet. There's a real outside chance of a threat, but like I said, I wasn't buying it without some WPAC support. Of course that goes out the window if the threat is toward next weekend, but I'm skeptical of the solution for now.

Steve
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re:

#1278 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:43 am

Steve wrote:Yeah, don't drink or burn it all just yet. There's a real outside chance of a threat, but like I said, I wasn't buying it without some WPAC support. Of course that goes out the window if the threat is toward next weekend, but I'm skeptical of the solution for now.

Steve


Lol yeah, It could go either way, just nothing strong enough to take it one way or another..Im gonna sit on the fence on this one for a little bit...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1279 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:02 am

FSU version of 00z canadian..Extreme you were right, looked different on the charts..

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1280 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:07 am

GFDL starts pushing west into South Carolina..
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2008”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests