Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

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Duddy
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1261 Postby Duddy » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:00 am

boca wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:
boca wrote:True but the trough isn't as deep to pick up 92L.Then high pressure builds in so no escape route to the north, but west across S FL into the Gulf. 92 L on sat is getting better organized with black appearing on ir.


Hey you're still up?

After seeing that run who can sleep.


Certainly not I.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1262 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:00 am

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Remember the threat/promise to take my 200 lb plus pasty flabby body streaking if the GFDL with a Cat 4 hitting Houston (back during 94L) verified?


Ditto, I'll announce time and place, and wear old torn briefs pulled up in a wedgy, and run around if public, if current 92L, as a closed low, ever landfalls West of 93ºW.


Don't do it Ed :ggreen: Goodnight folks. Interesting time ahead.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1263 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:01 am

Brent wrote:Well this is an odd run... south of LOUISIANA at 216 hours. :double:

Image



It won't happen.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1264 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:02 am

PLEASE POST THE INTENSITY OF THE GFS WHEN IT LANDFALLS IN SFL AND TEXAS.
thankyou :D
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1265 Postby boca » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:02 am

Ed make sure you were a shirt.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1266 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:03 am

Blown_away wrote:PLEASE POST THE INTENSITY OF THE GFS WHEN IT LANDFALLS IN SFL AND TEXAS.
thankyou :D


There is no intensity measure with the GFS like GFDL...
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1267 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:04 am

Ivanhater wrote:
Blown_away wrote:PLEASE POST THE INTENSITY OF THE GFS WHEN IT LANDFALLS IN SFL AND TEXAS.
thankyou :D


There is no intensity measure with the GFS like GFDL...



Yea Blown away but it is in our back yard again...
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1268 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:12 am

boca wrote:Ed make sure you were a shirt.



Not gonna happen. Hudson Bay still has ice, September cold fronts are reaching Texas in August, I'll be getting excited about GFS 324 hour snow/frz rain predictions for SE Texas by early November, if I had to guess.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1269 Postby MWatkins » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:15 am

Ya know...I just thought of something. The GFDL has been reflecting a furious 50 knot 35M vortex at t+6 hours every run for a long time now.

Perhaps it is the model's attemt to represent the persistent, strong mid-level center that we are seeing. That would also explain why the model holds onto the cyclone even without a closed surface circ...

Hmmmm...

MW
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TTheriot1975
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1270 Postby TTheriot1975 » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:17 am

What is going on here...lol...Do we SE Texans have a big bullseye on our heads? What is the deal with all these storms the past few years...lol...hopefully this is a fluke and it has nothing to do with us in the near future. But, since Edouard was supposed to be this nasty storm...ha ha ha...I still have my 2 cases of bottled water and some canned food and batteries...thats if anything makes it here..
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1271 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:18 am

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
boca wrote:Ed make sure you were a shirt.



Not gonna happen. Hudson Bay still has ice, September cold fronts are reaching Texas in August, I'll be getting excited about GFS 324 hour snow/frz rain predictions for SE Texas by early November, if I had to guess.

God I hope so...i cant wait until we finally get a real snowstorm here in NTX
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1272 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:19 am

00Z Canadian much further south and west..

Image
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1273 Postby zaqxsw75050 » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:22 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:
boca wrote:Ed make sure you were a shirt.



Not gonna happen. Hudson Bay still has ice, September cold fronts are reaching Texas in August, I'll be getting excited about GFS 324 hour snow/frz rain predictions for SE Texas by early November, if I had to guess.

God I hope so...i cant wait until we finally get a real snowstorm here in NTX


+1...

It was painful to watch all the snow just to the west while i got nothing last time...

0z GFS run was pretty crazy... If it verify, there will be a lot of damage across the country...
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#1274 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:26 am

>>Hey Steve, those runs do not intialize the suspected center correctly nor do they take into account current motion....

Yeah I know. That's what was available, so I posted it.
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Re:

#1275 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:31 am

Steve wrote:>>Hey Steve, those runs do not intialize the suspected center correctly nor do they take into account current motion....

Yeah I know. That's what was available, so I posted it.


Hey Steve, this has got to be one of the hardest setup Ive seen in a while..I hate those collapse of steering dynamics with Highs building back in..gonna be a stressful few days for sure :lol:
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1276 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:34 am

Ivanhater wrote:00Z Canadian much further south and west..

Image
Not really. Take a look at where the 12z Canadian put this.. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

looks pretty similar, IMO. If anything, the 00z might actually be a tad further east.
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#1277 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:41 am

Yeah, don't drink or burn it all just yet. There's a real outside chance of a threat, but like I said, I wasn't buying it without some WPAC support. Of course that goes out the window if the threat is toward next weekend, but I'm skeptical of the solution for now.

Steve
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Re:

#1278 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:43 am

Steve wrote:Yeah, don't drink or burn it all just yet. There's a real outside chance of a threat, but like I said, I wasn't buying it without some WPAC support. Of course that goes out the window if the threat is toward next weekend, but I'm skeptical of the solution for now.

Steve


Lol yeah, It could go either way, just nothing strong enough to take it one way or another..Im gonna sit on the fence on this one for a little bit...
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1279 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:02 am

FSU version of 00z canadian..Extreme you were right, looked different on the charts..

Image
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1280 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:07 am

GFDL starts pushing west into South Carolina..
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