ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Do you think it will be upgraded at 11am?

Who knows when they will upgrade this. In truth I believe it is because of the broadness of the LLC, you can see that its cirulation is hundreds of miles in size. Maybe when it forms a swirl like LLC.

[Cat5x]

Do you think it will be upgraded at 11am?

They will upgrade the moment a station, buoy, ship, or recon give them something that shows a well defined surface circulation.

How about radar ? http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... A&loop=yes

[bahamaswx]

I think that letting it go unclassified based on a technicality while it continues to pose an immediate threat to the greater antilles is irrepsonsible. This has been more or less the rationale behind the upgrade (and continuation) of quite a few systems in recent years in the GOM, despite recon not being able to discern a LLC.

[RL3AO]

Do you think it will be upgraded at 11am?

They will upgrade the moment a station, buoy, ship, or recon give them something that shows a well defined surface circulation.

How about radar ? http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... A&loop=yes

Radar is looking at the mid levels, not the low levels.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

AL, 92, 2008081506, , BEST, 0, 183N, 654W, 30, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,

Now updated to note it as being a deep system.

[Cat5x]

Radar is looking at the mid levels, not the low levels.

Well that swirling rain will eventually make it to the lower levels

[weatherguru18]

Thanks wthrman13. That's what I was thinking but couldn't put it into words. Pulling out terms that, at the time in school, I thought were ridiculous and nobody would ever need to know that...oops. Guess I should have paid a bit more attention instead of stumbling (and I mean stumbling) into class either half asleep or...well, you know. LOL

[Recurve]

Easy now. We have a developing system making landfall. All hopes and prayers for people in its path.

I expect upgrade now at 5 a.m. I'm guessing the radar presentation will make a lower level vortex evident.

[bob rulz]

I actually meant to ask if this would be upgraded at 5am, but my mistake. Either way, I would be surprised if it wasn't upgraded by 11am, and it may even be upgraded at 5am. However, I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't upgraded at 5am, considering there's no recon or visible.

[Cat5x]

On a side note, Anyone else think this will go right to a TS ? and skip TD.

How many times has that happened already this year. Isn't that proof that the NHC waits too long to classify a TD ?

Yeah so there is no LLC but if it has deep convenction persistant for 12 + hours, nice outflow, in 85+ degree water no sheer and a Mid level circulation t hat is building to the ground. I don't understand why that isn't enough to classify a TD? They wait till it is 100% perfect and it is already a TS.

[SouthFloridawx]

So how 'bout that 92L huh? Pretty weird....

[RL3AO]

On a side note, Anyone else think this will go right to a TS ? and skip TD.

How many times has that happened already this year. Isn't that proof that the NHC waits too long to classify a TD ?

Yeah so there is no LLC but if it has deep convenction persistant for 12 + hours, nice outflow, in 85+ degree water no sheer and a Mid level circulation t hat is building to the ground. I don't understand why that isn't enough to classify a TD? They wait till it is 100% perfect and it is already a TS.

No LLC = no cyclone...period.

As for the waiting to long question.

Dolly had TS force winds for days but it was moving to fast to close an LLC. Once it slowed down and closed the LLC, it was already a storm.

Edouard had a strong MLC but didnt develop an LLC until it was already at storm stregth. NHC was late on Arthur, but they didn't have any data to show a TS until it had made landfall.

[weatherguru18]

On a side note, Anyone else think this will go right to a TS ? and skip TD.

How many times has that happened already this year. Isn't that proof that the NHC waits too long to classify a TD ?

Yeah so there is no LLC but if it has deep convenction persistant for 12 + hours, nice outflow, in 85+ degree water no sheer and a Mid level circulation t hat is building to the ground. I don't understand why that isn't enough to classify a TD? They wait till it is 100% perfect and it is already a TS.

Well they called Bertha pretty darn quick...practically right off the coast of Africa...as soon as it hit water. Though I tend to agree with you. It seems like they are waiting an aweful long time on some storms...but then again, no closed low, no storm. They kept Dolly a T.S. and it had no LLC. Technically, it should have been downgraded, however, the NHC said it was really a technicality because the LLC was bound to reform and soon.

[SouthFloridawx]

[weatherguru18]

Ugh...I thought about staying up to see if they upgrade it, but I can't make it. I'm a wimp. Oh well, I'd imagine I'll be welcoming Fay into the world by the time I get up in the morning. Night guys/gals....

[Cat5x]

No closed LLC = no tropical cyclone. Its pretty simple.

To me thats too literally speaking. Im more pratical thinking, i've seen LLC that had no thunderstorms with them and they could barely blow out a candle but they were classified a TD. Then on the other hand you have an INVEST here that you know has 45+ mph gust, a "broad circulation" a spin on the radar that i was told was a mid level circulation, this looks like a monster that is growing, can drop 20 inches of rain, and in all honeslty could be 10x stronger then some weak beep beep LLC systems i have seen in the past, but this remains just an "invest".

So the rule of law, end all, no LLC no tropical cyclone just doesn't seem pratical to me.

[wxmann_91]

On a side note, Anyone else think this will go right to a TS ? and skip TD.

How many times has that happened already this year. Isn't that proof that the NHC waits too long to classify a TD ?

Yeah so there is no LLC but if it has deep convenction persistant for 12 + hours, nice outflow, in 85+ degree water no sheer and a Mid level circulation t hat is building to the ground. I don't understand why that isn't enough to classify a TD? They wait till it is 100% perfect and it is already a TS.

I think it will, and no, it isn't proof that NHC waits too long. Many times waves are embedded in strong low level easterly flow. In these conditions it is extremely difficult to close off a center. But b/c the ambient low level environment is already characterized by strong winds, the wave helps to enhance these, and so these tropical waves can often have TS-force winds. Once the LLC finally is able to close off, the system already has TS-force winds, and so it jumps the TD stage.

There is no LLC. By definition that is not a TC. This is all convection but no organization. No banding visible on radar, let alone satellite.

[Wthrman13]

On a side note, Anyone else think this will go right to a TS ? and skip TD.

How many times has that happened already this year. Isn't that proof that the NHC waits too long to classify a TD ?

Yeah so there is no LLC but if it has deep convenction persistant for 12 + hours, nice outflow, in 85+ degree water no sheer and a Mid level circulation t hat is building to the ground. I don't understand why that isn't enough to classify a TD? They wait till it is 100% perfect and it is already a TS.

It's simple really, and you said it yourself. The definition of a tropical cyclone indicates that it must have a closed *surface* circulation. Without that it is not a TC. Yes, it is a somewhat arbitrary definition, and as far as sensible weather is concerned there is indeed little difference between an open wave with 45 kts sustained winds and a TS with 45 kt sustained winds, but that is how these things are classified at the current time. The NHC is under no obligation to change this. If at some point, it becomes agreed upon that a system doesn't have to have a closed surface circulation to be a TC, then well and good, but that is not the case right now, and not likely to be in the foreseeable future. Any classification system is going to have drawbacks, but we do what we can. We humans tend to get so passionate about them (just look at the uproar over the demotion of Pluto)!

About 92L, even without the above considerations, I think the NHC made a good call not upgrading. The convective organization is still very poor, and the surface winds are mostly light over a broad area. That will likely change, but it hasn't happened yet.

[Meso]

Look dude... That's the way meteorology works. If there is no closed low then by definition it's not a tropical depression.There is no way around it or 'it looks good enough to be', 'the winds are strong enough'...By the laws of science it just isn't a tropical depression, I can go around wanting to call a dog a cat cause it has fur, but that doesn't mean it is one.

Cold fronts bring stronger winds at times, should we throw out the fact that they are 'cold fronts' and issue tropical storm warnings for it.. There are warnings in place by various meteorological organizations to put forward warnings of conditions. But until this becomes a depression, it's a local weather services duties, not the NHC

[Hurricane Cheese]

Something being lost here amongst all the talk of whether it's a TS or not, is the fact that it appears to be barreling right into the Greater Antilles. Perhaps it is the satellite pics playing tricks with me at this later hour but I see no way this makes it into the southern Bahamas. The mountains of Hispaniola await, which could make this system's quest to become a Tropical Storm a short one.