ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Cat5x]

Yes, Hurricane Noel in 2001, but it was an extratropical cyclone WITH a LLC that already had strong winds before it acquired a warm core.

You simply cannot expect a tropical wave to go from TW to Hurricane because they simply don't strengthen much without a low level circulation. If you don't have a LLC, the system WILL NOT strengthen. Why call it a tropical cyclone right now (with no LLC) and have it weaken to just an area of high clouds 6 hours later? Doesn't make sense.

This system is definitely NOT the most impressive tropical wave I've seen. This is just a strong tropical wave at this point and there's been many in the past.

The mountains of Hispaniola await...

technically, its a wave until the NHC says otherwise... technically. Like i said if they make the call at 11am its a TS then at 10:59 it was still a wave.

It sounds like a judgement call, could they be wrong ? i see a broad llc, at what point is it narrow enough to not be broad, etc... it has all the charateristics, but one person at the controls that will say, yeah or nay.

[physicx07]

Just checked Ponce surface obs. Now this might be effects of the thunderstorms they are reporting, but wind went from W to now SE 14G24 in a couple hours, and pressure in the last 3 hours was 29.82, 29.82, 29.88. That would be consistent with the area of apparent circulation just south of Ponce moving W-SW. But again, I'd like to see the t-storm clear out first before definitively saying that that is it, but doesn't look like that'll happen real soon.

Oh, and if that is the circulation, as if it needs to be said, but no way it's a hurricane with the heavy convection right over the center. (Someone said something about going from nothing to hurricane...and sorry if I misunderstood).

Ok Just south of PONCE http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes does that look like a rotation, that would also match the center of the convection on here http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html



Question has any system gone from INVEST to hurricane ?

[Cat5x]

Honestly, do you really think right now this is just a "Wave" and then at some time tonight, maybe 5:20am someone at the NHC will say, ok its upgraded, it just become a TS. So like 5:19am is a wave and then boom 5:20 its a tropical storm. That sounds like a silly question but honestly i don't think this system explodes that fast. Seems to me even for system that explode they still take place over several hours. So if they wait to the point it becomes a TS i don't think it went from Wave to TS in matter of minutes. So in essence they waited to long to classify it a TD. I get the closed circulation thing, but let me ask you this.

Doesn't it seem odd that something can spin to TS strenght before it can spin to TD strenght?


Im looking at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html and I see banding. its not a lot of banding but there is definetly bands and some awesome outflow. I've seen hurricanes with worse outflow then this invest.

TW--> TS is not "exploding". It's not odd, it's perfectly normal. You can have no center, with winds of TS strength, then 6 hr later, a center, with winds of TS strength. Only difference: a center. That's a big step but it's not explosive by any means.

There may be outflow but it doesn't mean much when there's strong low level easterly winds shredding apart any attempts at an LLC. I think that's what's been the problem with 92L today. Haven't looked at soundings yet but perhaps the models initialized poorly at H85 and underestimated the strength of the easterly LLJ.

It does have a broad LLC but as you say it has eastly flow going through it. I believe thes factors that have played out for the last few weeks could become part of what limits tropical cyclone development for the rest of the month. I don't believe the Atlantic is that favorable overall.

Could this become a tropical storm later today sure it could. But then we will have to watch where the LLC forms, if to far south it will have a problem with Hati,DR.

I expect things to change once into the peak. But to say 17 named storms is against my way of thinking.

Is Dr. Grey protected from criticism like the NHC here? I figured i would ask before i go off on t that guy. Between his predictions each year and his stance on global warming... i have lots of not so nice thoughts about the guy I would like to share but I don't want to get another mod warning

[RL3AO]

Is Dr. Grey protected from criticism like the NHC here? I figured i would ask before i go off on t that guy. Between his predictions each year and his stance on global warming... i have lots of not so nice thoughts about the guy I would like to share but I don't want to get another mod warning

You just can't start attacking people because you disagree with their point of view. There are many people on here including me that don't buy into human caused global warming. You can debate it in the Global Weather forum, but you can't attack people.

[KWT]

Clearly this is not going to miss Hispaniola, indeed looks like its going to try and cut right through the middle of the island before maybe starting to lift but with such explosive and large convective properties I really can't see land befir a huge issue at this stage given how bady defined it is anyway.

[hial2]

Is Dr. Grey protected from criticism like the NHC here? I figured i would ask before i go off on t that guy. Between his predictions each year and his stance on global warming... i have lots of not so nice thoughts about the guy I would like to share but I don't want to get another mod warning

Follow the rules and don't "bash" anyone...most of us are amateurs and don't have the right to criticize those who have vastly more knowledge and education.

Just my opinion

[jlauderdal]

I still can't believe that is just a wave. wow That looks like Hugo with out an eye.

look at this way, imagine how may athletes looked great until they got on the field and never made the team

[KWT]

Still can't deny it looks real impressive...

Also if thats the center down there then this will probably end up tracking right across the heat of DR...a skim won't make a huge differnce, a track right through the heart of it could be far harder for a system to survive though its not the be all and end all...

However there is also enough turning further to the north which makes me believe that could also be a circulation there as well, tough to say...

[Chris_in_Tampa]

It's always helpful to view Weather Underground's radar with storm tracks:
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... ightning=0
To find which direction certain storms are moving. Things are still a little chaotic around the somewhat broad circulation.

[Normandy]

Hey, thought I would share my opinions on 92L. Still looks good, and interestingly enough that MLC is still evident without a surface circulation. I would encourage people to look at these updated maps:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8ir.html

Couple of things to comment on. First check out the location of the 850mb Vorticity center....its well NE of the current convective outburst. Check surface convergence and you will see it is quite high in a spot just NE of PR. Surface divergence/Upper level anticyclone are all located in the general area of the 850 mb Vorticity center. Any further development of this system would occur up there I am presuming, and I believe the cluster over PR will collapse.

[Ed1]

Radar Loop for zero hour.

[KWT]

Possibly Normandy its hard to say but there is some pretty decent spin on the radar just to the south of PR that has got some pretty explosive convection over it but because the center is so broad right now a LLC could form just about anywhere I suppose.

Saying all that the broad turning IS focused further NE on the eastern side of PR right now, that maybe is where the MLC is at present.

[mattpetre]

Scenarios that had this skirting the S. sides of PR, Hisp., and Cuba are looking to be a slight possibility now. No matter what the next couple of days will be all about land interaction now.

[deltadog03]

I would expect, once again the big blob to die off again. There is just no SFC support down there to keep it going. This is getting aggrivating.

[mattpetre]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Just waking up. I won't even try to make an official looking forecast just want to put this out there. It will skirt south of the three big islands, form an llc as it's off the coast of Cuba, scare the heck out of everyone in the Gulf Coast States when it bombs to Cat 4 and then hit S. of Lake Charles LA as a Cat 2. It's going to be a long ride for this disturbance no matter where it goes.

[KWT]

EVen if the big blob does die off somewhat I doubt its long before another one explodes into life Deltadog, this system has far too much instablity with it to simply poof completely IMO.

[physicx07]

The strong low level convergence and high level divergence NE of PR are hard to ignore. I don't think I've ever been so torn between deciding what/where will develop: will it be the very formidable convection with some sort of low to mid level circulation S of PR, or the compelling dynamics associated with the convergence/divergence couplet NE of PR. Personally though I'm edging towards the current convective blob. But I wouldn't be shocked if it did indeed go poof.

EVen if the big blob does die off somewhat I doubt its long before another one explodes into life Deltadog, this system has far too much instablity with it to simply poof completely IMO.

[KWT]

The thing is there is a broad circulation so the center could form just about anywhere but there doesn't appear to be anything yet and everything seems to be in the midlevel thus far.

[deltadog03]

For some reason we just can't get a sustained blow up near the weak sfc low over northern PR. We just get blobs with a very nice MLC that die every 4-6 hours or so. Like some have pointed out the greatest conv. and vorticity is on the northern have of the wave. Those blobs will die everytime until we can get a SFC center going.

[KWT]

I think the problem is the circulation that set-up at the lower levels a few days ago is still present and is just not allowing anything to get going in the region of better conditions, I think its only a matter of time before one of these regions takes over for good, this battle can't go on forever but at least its preventing a TS from forming.