ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

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Derek Ortt

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3641 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 15, 2008 8:54 am

txwatcher91 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:
GreenSky wrote:Derek, what are your thoughts on 92L given recent trends? Will its long term track change due to it taking a more westerly track the past 12 hours...and will it go through the spine of DR and get ripped apart

this wont be ripped apart. Waves do not dissipate over Hispaniola

We could see some old fashioned lee side cyclogenesis after it crosses Hispaniola


Derek, what are your thoughts on the models? Do you think the GFDL and HWRF have the right idea? If so, it would have a long time over water and could become a Cat 3 with the Gulf Stream and pretty high TCHP and good upper level conditions, especially in the bahamas and then heading north.


not much chance to miss Hispaniola
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3642 Postby Normandy » Fri Aug 15, 2008 8:54 am

Storms in NC,
The center is actually much farther west...I see a weak LLC almost near the coast of the DR right now (In the passage under the deep convection). Moving right into the island.
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Re: 92L Personal forecasts

#3643 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Aug 15, 2008 8:54 am

Here is my morning update on 92L...

Image

92L is very close to tropical depression status this morning. Winds are high enough east of the center, and surface wind directions indicate that the LLC may be closed or close to being closed. Regardless of whether or not the NHC decides to upgrade this at 11am though, the effects in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti should be the same. Heavy rains with periods of breezy winds, which could possibly result in deadly mudslides.

The biggest change with this system since last night is the fact that 92L will probably now pass over the Dominican Republic and Haiti more than expected yesterday. This increased land interaction could result in a hampered strengthening trend, especially in the short-term. I do not think this interaction should kill 92L though, and once it gets back into a good environment in 24-48 hours, I believe steady strengthening should commence. 92L could still reach hurricane strength in 3 days.

Due to the slightly further west track this morning, I have in turn decided to adjust my final track westward as well. This new track now brings the storm into southern Florida on Monday morning and then moves it up the east side of the state SLOWLY through Wednesday. Weakening should take place between hour 72 and 120 as the storm remains over the state of Florida and slowly winds down. Heavy rains will become the main threat beyond 96 hours.

INTENSITY FORECAST:

INITIAL: 30KT (35mph)
24 HR: 30KT (35mph)
48 HR: 45KT (52mph)
72 HR: 65KT (75mph)
LANDFALL: 70KT (81mph)
96 HR: 45KT (52mph)
120 HR: 30KT (35mph)

**Intensity is held at 30 knots through hour 24 whether or not this is officially upgraded by the NHC. Even if this is not an official TD, I still expect to see some gusts as high as 35mph being reported in association with this system, with sustained winds possibly reaching that level atop some of the Dominican Republic's mountains and the open seas to the NE of the center.**

----------------------------------------------------------------

2:23pm update = Based on the fact that Recon has found 45KT surface winds, I have decided to update my intensity forecast...

INITIAL: 45KT (52mph)
24 HR: 40KT (46mph)
48 HR: 45KT (52mph)
72 HR: 65KT (75mph)
LANDFALL: 70KT (81mph)
96 HR: 45KT (52mph)
120 HR: 30KT (35mph)
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#3644 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 15, 2008 8:55 am

Image
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3645 Postby Pearl River » Fri Aug 15, 2008 8:56 am

From Las Americas-Santo Domingo

METAR text: MDSD 151300Z 36011KT 8000 VCRA FEW016CB SCT018 BKN070 25/23 Q1013 CB/NE/SE/NW/N
Conditions at: MDSD (CAUCEDO/DE LAS, DO) observed 1300 UTC 15 August 2008
Temperature: 25.0°C (77°F)
Dewpoint: 23.0°C (73°F) [RH = 89%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.91 inches Hg (1013.0 mb)
Winds: from the N (360 degrees) at 13 MPH (11 knots; 5.7 m/s)
Visibility: 5 miles (8 km)
Ceiling: 7000 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 1600 feet AGL
scattered clouds at 1800 feet AGL
broken clouds at 7000 feet AGL
Weather: VCRA ( could not decipher "VCRA")
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3646 Postby txwatcher91 » Fri Aug 15, 2008 8:56 am

Derek Ortt wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:We could see some old fashioned lee side cyclogenesis after it crosses Hispaniola


Derek, what are your thoughts on the models? Do you think the GFDL and HWRF have the right idea? If so, it would have a long time over water and could become a Cat 3 with the Gulf Stream and pretty high TCHP and good upper level conditions, especially in the bahamas and then heading north.


not much chance to miss Hispaniola


I know it will hit Hispaniola, but do you think when it gets in the Bahamas that a further N track is possible, or do you think the ridge will be stronger and further W? So far this year we have had a winter type pattern where the ridge has been mostly weaker than normal with a very strong trough, that is why I ask.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3647 Postby Sanibel » Fri Aug 15, 2008 8:56 am

That weak naked spiral of two days ago did track west over the islands. Hispaniola could be the friend of Florida because of what this would have done uninterrupted. We can only see what happens to 92L once it crashes into Hispaniola. I still think this southern track will resolve more west as far as Florida. Good blow-up on last night's 4am diurnal maximum.

Crash and burn? Or just crash?
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#3648 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Fri Aug 15, 2008 8:57 am

Well it is a good thing land interaction is keeping this
from intensifying. The chances of it being a major hurricane
near Florida/Bahamas is very low now. Hopefully though it
does not cause flooding deaths on the islands.
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#3649 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 15, 2008 8:57 am

Image
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3650 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Aug 15, 2008 8:58 am

storms in NC wrote:[img]Image[/img]

Could this be the Start of the center? Please don't blast me out. I am not good at picking this things out

Its the mid level circulation. Its been there the whole time, displaced the whole time as well. However, if there is at all a surface feature on this storm, it will likely weaken or maintain over land (not much to maintain). I expect the center to remain intact, but does anybody consider a possibility of reformation closer to the mlc? I realize this didnt do it yesterday when it had the chance, but I suppose its still possible, right?
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Re: Re:

#3651 Postby storms in NC » Fri Aug 15, 2008 8:58 am

GreenSky wrote:
KWT wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:
may have to wait until Sunday to develop if current trends continue, which will all but eliminate the major hurricane threat to Florida


Yep obviously won't get any stronger overland and even if it did have a LLC it wouldn't survive the trip but I think Hispaniola won't exactly destroy its MLC or the convection too badly.

What about to the Carolinas however, I think thats where this one is destined to go myself rather than Florida, given it has more time as well if it took that track?





Why do you believe 92L has a better chance of going to the Carolinas then Florida...what happened to the ridging?

If 92L takes more time, which you suggested, then it would miss the trough connection.



Now I have to step in here. While I don't think it will come to NC I don't think any one has a right to strat fighting over where it is going. My God NHC don't know till it has a center and till then Islands up should be watching this to be safe. Not all storms go to TX or into the Gulf or Fla there are other places than them. Like Ga SC NC Va. So till there is a cone No where but where it is at now.
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Re: Re:

#3652 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 15, 2008 8:58 am

GreenSky wrote:
Why do you believe 92L has a better chance of going to the Carolinas then Florida...what happened to the ridging?

If 92L takes more time, which you suggested, then it would miss the trough connection.


Well in truth it could go just about anywhere I suppose, the models are obviously close enough to florida for it to be a real threat if it does decide to eventually develop. I just think a Carolinas hit is more possible but really I think Florida has a decent chance of getting hit as well, esp if the models do start trending westwards and the ridge builds in quickly.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3653 Postby Sanibel » Fri Aug 15, 2008 8:59 am

Center is just north of the passage for those confused.
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#3654 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:00 am

It's funny to see that people are still making predictions after how wrong we have been with 92L. The tropics are a lot of fun. :lol: :lol: :lol:

92L behaves like the phrase says "expect the unexpected."
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Derek Ortt

#3655 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:01 am

I will say one thing...

if this does not develop, GFDL and HWRF just made my red card list
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Re:

#3656 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:01 am

Derek Ortt wrote:I will say one thing...

if this does not develop, GFDL and HWRF just made my red card list


LOL mine too.
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:03 am, edited 3 times in total.
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#3657 Postby storms in NC » Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:02 am

Thank you cheezyWXguy. that was a big help.
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Re: Re:

#3658 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:02 am

gatorcane wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:I will say one thing...

if this does not develop, GFDL and HWRF just made my red card list


LOL mine too.


LOL..But you said it last night Ortt..Neither of them develop this till E Cuba..
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#3659 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:02 am

Check the SJU radar loop. If you utilize your mouse cursor and plot the movement of the LLC (evident off NW Puerto Rico per QuikSCAT) on the radar, you can clearly detect the fact that the movement is north of due west. If you extrapolate the movement from the LLC's current position in the Mona Passage, it would imply a brief landfall on the extreme eastern edge of Hispaniola, but it would mostly scrape the eastern coastline.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA...11&loop=yes

Does anyone concur? I'm sticking with my original "scrape" call.

Regardless, this will be a significant heavy precip event for Hispaniola, unfortunately.
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#3660 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:03 am

Well I think the problem with the GFDL is that it didn't really forecast any major interaction with land, I think only one run came close to what may actually happen and that run still ended up with a cat-1 in the Bahamas.
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