ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Blown Away]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Miamiwx Radar does look to have a spin that would take cir close to the north of the DR...

I don't see what you are seeing, circulation looks to go due W rate down the middle of DR.

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

Someone correct me if im wrong but if you look closely it looks what appears to be a little eddy due east of the turks and cacos?????

[Derek Ortt]

through the next 36 hours, the chances of development are fairly small (If I were writing the NHC outlook, I'd drop it from red to yellow for the time being). Will not get development over Hispaniola.

However, I fully expect development to begin on Sunday afternoon, IF THIS DOES NOT HIT CUBA. I am also not convinced that this misses Cuba any longer

This may increase the threat to the Gulf of Mexico, however

[txwatcher91]

Am I looking at this map right, it appears to be showing the ridge weakening over the Bahamas right now.

rather, the ridge is expanding and the trough/weakness currently over the Southeast should lift away to the Northeast

Isn't the light blue a weakness in the ridge? Sorry, but I am trying to learn how to read these maps better.

[Jason_B]

Forgive me for I have not been around lately to keep up with things but I'm just curious over what is keeping this an invest? I thought by now it would surely have a name and it looks (through my amateur eyes) good enough to be at least a TD. Why the hold up?

[HURAKAN]

In 2006 I went for vacation to Punta Cana and Isla Saona, two absolutely beautiful places. Isla Saona remains so natural, that its only town of about 400 people don't have electricity. They have generators for the main necessities.

[Sanibel]

Input:

Slow forward speed and the fact that this area hasn't had a storm this year says to me that it doesn't matter if it survives Hispaniola, any moist wave approaching the waters north of Cuba should develop. There's thick humidity here in the last few days.

[tolakram]

I was wondering how long before this thread turned into a center reformation chat while it's over the DR. I'm going to let this go and check back a few times today and see what's up. Being as disorganized as it is with radar loops fairly inconclusive there are going to be multiple claims of where the center is etc. I would be one of those making the claims! I tried to follow the center I thought I found last night on radar and it's really inconclusive.

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Miamiwx Radar does look to have a spin that would take cir close to the north of the DR...

I don't see what you are seeing, circulation looks to go due W rate down the middle of DR.

To me it looks like it is moving mostly west with just a slight hint of a northward component.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Am I looking at this map right, it appears to be showing the ridge weakening over the Bahamas right now.

rather, the ridge is expanding and the trough/weakness currently over the Southeast should lift away to the Northeast

Isn't the light blue a weakness in the ridge? Sorry, but I am trying to learn how to read these maps better.

I believe the color codes are for speed.

92L is showing up on that steering chart, that is, you kind of have to mentally remove the TC's (soon to be TC anyway, maybe, or maybe not) effects from the streamlines to see the steering.

[fox13weather]

92L is going to travel right over the spine of Hispinola. Despite most models showing a significant hurricane somewhere east of Florida next week, it is certainly a questionable scenario. The models are assuming the wave will be intact and that it will rapidly intensify if and when it moves away from land. Sure, it could happen, but there is also a chance that the wave will be too disorganized.

[vbhoutex]

Check the SJU radar loop. If you utilize your mouse cursor and plot the movement of the LLC (evident off NW Puerto Rico per QuikSCAT) on the radar, you can clearly detect the fact that the movement is north of due west. If you extrapolate the movement from the LLC's current position in the Mona Passage, it would imply a brief landfall on the extreme eastern edge of Hispaniola, but it would mostly scrape the eastern coastline.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA...11&loop=yes

Does anyone concur? I'm sticking with my original "scrape" call.

Regardless, this will be a significant heavy precip event for Hispaniola, unfortunately.

I am still not convinced that the apparent LLC you are seeing is going to dominate, though I think it should. There, imo is still the possibility that a more southern one may happen(per NHC), even though the quikscat doesn't even hint at that. THIS IS TOUGH COOKIE TO CRACK!!! So far you have been right on with you analysis though, so it is tough to argue against it.

[HURAKAN]

[storms in NC]

It looks like a mess right now. it seem to be try to relocating. It sure don't look like it did yesterday for sure.

[HURAKAN]

It looks like a mess right now. it seem to be try to relocating. It sure don't look like it did yesterday for sure.

Are you kidding right? I have seen messes from invests and 92L isn't one of them at the moment.

[ConvergenceZone]

through the next 36 hours, the chances of development are fairly small (If I were writing the NHC outlook, I'd drop it from red to yellow for the time being). Will not get development over Hispaniola.

However, I fully expect development to begin on Sunday afternoon, IF THIS DOES NOT HIT CUBA. I am also not convinced that this misses Cuba any longer

This may increase the threat to the Gulf of Mexico, however

One thing, if this also goes over Cuba, there probably won't be a hurricane out of this, unless it has more time over water and heads to the Carolinas, otherwise, if it hits cuba and heads to Florida or the Gulf, shouldn't be more than a tropical storm, if that...There just won't be enough time...

[KWT]

I agree with Derek its not going to do anything now for a little but once cleared as long as it misses Cuba, or at least only goes over the NE tip then it will probably develop in the Bahamas region.

The longer it stays weak clearly the further west it will go, so far funnily enough the CMC track looks to be about the best...so far of course!

Convergence zone, conditions in the east gulf...if it somehow defies most forecasts and gets there, are decent for strengthening as well...still this is turning into a real pain in the butt to predict!

[HURAKAN]

[Air Force Met]

through the next 36 hours, the chances of development are fairly small (If I were writing the NHC outlook, I'd drop it from red to yellow for the time being). Will not get development over Hispaniola.

However, I fully expect development to begin on Sunday afternoon, IF THIS DOES NOT HIT CUBA. I am also not convinced that this misses Cuba any longer

This may increase the threat to the Gulf of Mexico, however

This is what I am thinking as well. Give it a couple of days...but the longer it takes...the more the GoM threat.

Also...I wouldn't be surprised to see something in the low levels try to get going on the south side of the DR.

[storms in NC]

Don't think NC is thinking it will come up this way either

000
FXUS62 KILM 151408
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1008 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008


LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE FOCUS REMAINS ON THE PATTERN TRANSITION
AND IF AND WHEN INVEST 92L DEVELOPS AND THE EVENTUAL TRACK. THE
TRACK HAS SHIFTED DRAMATICALLY WITH ONLY A SUBTLE CHANGE IN THE
MODEL...AT LEAST FROM THE GFS. THE SYSTEM NOW DOES NOT GET
CAPTURED BY THE 500MB TROUGH...COMPLETELY...IT MAKES IT TO THE
BAHAMAS AND TURNS WEST TO EVEN SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SOLUTION COULD OF COURSE CHANGE
NUMEROUS TIMES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND IT ISN`T A GIVEN THE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AT ALL. ANYWAY...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING...
MODELS ARE CONFIDENT ON THAT...TRIMMED BACK POPS A TAD EACH DAY AS
HEIGHTS BUILD AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

FORTUNATELY...WITH THE FORECAST ALIGNMENT OF THE RIDGE...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE EAST TO NORTHEAST KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT OR A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.