ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[HURAKAN]

Fay is just about to meet the mountains of Hispaniola. Head on, by the look of it.

If the LLC dissipates, it's likely to reform near the stronger convection. I don't believe that the mountains will contain Fay.

[LSU2001]

Ok stupid question here but with the very strong convection building west of Hisp. over the open water is it possible that we could see a center relocation?? I thought I had read somewhere that fairly weak systems sometimes relocate the center due to land interaction.
Tim

[Evil Jeremy]

Could be seeing things but it looks like Fay could be getting tugged a .little north maybe due to land interaction.

Indeed it does, but looks can be disceving.

[HURAKAN]

Ok stupid question here but with the very strong convection building west of Hisp. over the open water is it possible that we could see a center relocation?? I thought I had read somewhere that fairly weak systems sometimes relocate the center due to land interaction.
Tim

You answered your own question. When weak systems impact land, center reformation is always possible.

[LSU2001]

Thanks Hurakan, I thought I remembered that right.
Tim

[cycloneye]

The 00:00 UTC Best Track for Fay.

AL, 06, 2008081600, , BEST, 0, 186N, 702W, 40, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 75, 0, 75,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Is the center trying to relocate south of the island? Or is it over
the island?

[Air Force Met]

ok well everyone get some sleep tonight as there is nothing to watch radar is to far away
and dont even try to say its moving one way or the other while the center is being disrupted by 10,000ft mountains
a general wnw motion of the "cloud mass".( there wil be no way to effectively track any center not even with obs as there is to many mountain and satellite will not work either since oragraphic lifting will screw with your eyes pretty bad) is in store tonight and depending on how much survives will determine how fast it regernates.. my advise is get some sleep cause its going to be a very busy next few days if enough survives..

later

oh and LLC do not go over mountains ... they go bye bye.. death to LLC new one will have to reform once over water...

I'm glad you posted that about the orographic lifting. As I was reviewing the posts about the WNW movement based on satellite...that is exactly what I was thinking and going to post. Convection is going to flare in the places over the DR due to orographic lift and not necessarily based on movement. It will likely flare wnw because that is the way the mountain range is oriented...and the air is being oragraphically lifted along the ridge line.

And the LLC will get pretty hosed...and reform under the MLC once it gets over water.

[HURAKAN]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

thanks for the picture hurakan that clears up my confusion!
Also thanks Air Force Met for that explanation.

[southmdwatcher]

Fay is just about to meet the mountains of Hispaniola. Head on, by the look of it.

If the LLC dissipates, it's likely to reform near the stronger convection. I don't believe that the mountains will contain Fay.

I had not seen the most recent IR satellite with those bursts. The confusion about Fay's location seems to be clearing up now. Intense convection bursts along and off of the south coast.

[RL3AO]

Anyone else worried about Fays LLC redeveloping off the southern coast?

Also, the NHC will have to forecast a cane at 11 because of the GFDL/HWRF.

[rockyman]

Anyone else worried about Fays LLC redeveloping off the southern coast?

Also, the NHC will have to forecast a cane at 11 because of the GFDL/HWRF.

I was just about to post the same thing...I could see this easily slipping back off the southern coast...the heaviest convection seems to maintaining itself over the water...possibly leading to a lowering of pressures off toward the south.

[HURAKAN]

[Nimbus]

With that ULL or TUTT dropping south behind Fay You have to figure the steering will be too far left to have Fay track north of the Islands.

Probably stack up north of Jamaica before crossing Cuba but we might stay lucky.

The lack of shear in the forecast bothers me, other than shear and land interaction there is not much to prevent a strong storm.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

What is supposed to cause a weakness in the ridge that is forecast to turn Fay nnw or n in 3 days or so? Chances of it actually happening? Could the models continue to shift more to the west as they shifted more east over the last couple of days before it was classified?

[Brent]

Anyone else worried about Fays LLC redeveloping off the southern coast?

Also, the NHC will have to forecast a cane at 11 because of the GFDL/HWRF.

I've been noticing that for hours and it does bother me. It changes a lot if it does.

[RL3AO]

What is supposed to cause a weakness in the ridge that is forecast to turn Fay nnw or n in 3 days or so? Chances of it actually happening? Could the models continue to shift more to the west as they shifted more east over the last couple of days before it was classified?

That would be the trough in the northeast that seems to have been there all year (at least it feels that way).

[Ivanhater]

Anyone else worried about Fays LLC redeveloping off the southern coast?

Also, the NHC will have to forecast a cane at 11 because of the GFDL/HWRF.

With these weaker systems, the mountains tend to move the low north or south..so something certainly to look for..

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

18.6/71.5 it is nearly half way through DR/Hati. I expect it to move back over water within 9 hours. What it is likely doing to Hati/DR might get it retired a lone.