Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Jason_B]

If Fay continues on a wnw track tonight and the models continue to shift west than I might consider it, but like I said this has been the story everyday now....shifts west then east then west etc and between all those shifts is SW/central Florida.

What is it you would consider? I don't understand this statement.

Consider a threat west of the Big Bend.

[sunny]

If Fay continues on a wnw track tonight and the models continue to shift west than I might consider it, but like I said this has been the story everyday now....shifts west then east then west etc and between all those shifts is SW/central Florida.

What is it you would consider? I don't understand this statement.

Consider a threat west of the Big Bend.

Are you a pro met?

[Jason_B]

Are you a pro met?

No.

[sunny]

Are you a pro met?

No.

Enthusiasm is a wonderful thing, but there is something to be said for reading and trying to learn from the pro mets and other experienced posters here.

[DESTRUCTION5]

18zGFS rollin.Not so OTL this time so far..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

[TheRingo]

18zGFS rollin.Not so OTL this time so far..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

looks to be more east of 12z run already.

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066l.gif

Ma just crawling up the West Coast...3 days...Man thats a nasty thought....

[Bocadude85]

GFS is a little further east this time

[DESTRUCTION5]

4 days later in big bend

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif

[DESTRUCTION5]

And here comes G and H

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

[sweetpea]

And here comes G and H

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

Season just really started and I'm tired already!!

[Ixolib]

Oh, I do--on August 25, 2005. The models were clustered over MS/LA and the NHC still had a central FL Panhandle hit. Not necessarily saying this is the same but the models setup is enough to spook a few of us.

Speaking of those "good old days" (NOT!!), whatever happened to DHWEATHER???

[HurryKane]

Oh, I do--on August 25, 2005. The models were clustered over MS/LA and the NHC still had a central FL Panhandle hit. Not necessarily saying this is the same but the models setup is enough to spook a few of us.

Speaking of those "good old days" (NOT!!), whatever happened to DHWEATHER???

He moved inland and is raising a little DHWeatherette

[Frank P]

Oh, I do--on August 25, 2005. The models were clustered over MS/LA and the NHC still had a central FL Panhandle hit. Not necessarily saying this is the same but the models setup is enough to spook a few of us.

Speaking of those "good old days" (NOT!!), whatever happened to DHWEATHER???

Hey old neighbor, looks like the models want to bring you some nasty weather next week.. hope you are high and dry... and good luck...

this Kay is one messy woman... and to think we're not even in the peak of the season... probably not a good sign at all...

[Ivanhater]

18Z Nogaps

[Frank P]

boy, if this came to fruition it would shock the heck out of a lot of people... including me... however unlikely ya still gotta keep one eye on it just in case..

[Jason_B]

Obviously Nogaps doesn't see the trough draped along the northern Gulf.

[Steve]

>>Obviously Nogaps doesn't see the trough draped along the northern Gulf.

Run it at a different height and see what it's doing/anticipating and that should say why it is arriving at its solution. Some of the models yesterday (western ones) were flattening out the trough, one lifted it out, and another still negatively tilted it.

This is the link to the 12z.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/metoc/nogaps ... r_net.html

Not sure where to get the 18. FWIW, the 18z UKMET moves it further west and up due to the advancing upper low in the west (dives it down into the Dallas area by the end of the run). Here's the 500mb vorticity:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[Alacane2]

18Z Nogaps

Wow Ivan, that would be bad for us in the Mobile/Pensacola area. Can you tell how strong of a storm that model is predicting?

[Evil Jeremy]

New GFDL in, eastward shift.