Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

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Jason_B

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2261 Postby Jason_B » Sun Aug 17, 2008 4:40 pm

sunny wrote:
Jason_B wrote:If Fay continues on a wnw track tonight and the models continue to shift west than I might consider it, but like I said this has been the story everyday now....shifts west then east then west etc and between all those shifts is SW/central Florida.


What is it you would consider? I don't understand this statement.
Consider a threat west of the Big Bend.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2262 Postby sunny » Sun Aug 17, 2008 4:42 pm

Jason_B wrote:
sunny wrote:
Jason_B wrote:If Fay continues on a wnw track tonight and the models continue to shift west than I might consider it, but like I said this has been the story everyday now....shifts west then east then west etc and between all those shifts is SW/central Florida.


What is it you would consider? I don't understand this statement.
Consider a threat west of the Big Bend.


Are you a pro met?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2263 Postby Jason_B » Sun Aug 17, 2008 4:43 pm

sunny wrote:

Are you a pro met?
No.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2264 Postby sunny » Sun Aug 17, 2008 4:45 pm

Jason_B wrote:
sunny wrote:

Are you a pro met?
No.


Enthusiasm is a wonderful thing, but there is something to be said for reading and trying to learn from the pro mets and other experienced posters here.
Last edited by sunny on Sun Aug 17, 2008 4:55 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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#2265 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sun Aug 17, 2008 4:45 pm

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Re:

#2266 Postby TheRingo » Sun Aug 17, 2008 4:54 pm



looks to be more east of 12z run already.
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#2267 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sun Aug 17, 2008 4:57 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066l.gif

Ma just crawling up the West Coast...3 days...Man thats a nasty thought....
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2268 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Aug 17, 2008 5:01 pm

GFS is a little further east this time
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#2269 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sun Aug 17, 2008 5:05 pm

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#2270 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sun Aug 17, 2008 5:09 pm

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Re:

#2271 Postby sweetpea » Sun Aug 17, 2008 5:11 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:And here comes G and H

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

Season just really started and I'm tired already!!
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2272 Postby Ixolib » Sun Aug 17, 2008 5:21 pm

HurryKane wrote:Oh, I do--on August 25, 2005. The models were clustered over MS/LA and the NHC still had a central FL Panhandle hit. Not necessarily saying this is the same but the models setup is enough to spook a few of us.


Speaking of those "good old days" (NOT!!), whatever happened to DHWEATHER???
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2273 Postby HurryKane » Sun Aug 17, 2008 5:27 pm

Ixolib wrote:
HurryKane wrote:Oh, I do--on August 25, 2005. The models were clustered over MS/LA and the NHC still had a central FL Panhandle hit. Not necessarily saying this is the same but the models setup is enough to spook a few of us.


Speaking of those "good old days" (NOT!!), whatever happened to DHWEATHER???




He moved inland and is raising a little DHWeatherette :)
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2274 Postby Frank P » Sun Aug 17, 2008 5:28 pm

Ixolib wrote:
HurryKane wrote:Oh, I do--on August 25, 2005. The models were clustered over MS/LA and the NHC still had a central FL Panhandle hit. Not necessarily saying this is the same but the models setup is enough to spook a few of us.


Speaking of those "good old days" (NOT!!), whatever happened to DHWEATHER???


Hey old neighbor, looks like the models want to bring you some nasty weather next week.. hope you are high and dry... and good luck...

this Kay is one messy woman... and to think we're not even in the peak of the season... probably not a good sign at all...
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2275 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 17, 2008 6:06 pm

18Z Nogaps

Image
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2276 Postby Frank P » Sun Aug 17, 2008 6:11 pm

boy, if this came to fruition it would shock the heck out of a lot of people... including me... however unlikely ya still gotta keep one eye on it just in case..
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Jason_B

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2277 Postby Jason_B » Sun Aug 17, 2008 6:14 pm

Obviously Nogaps doesn't see the trough draped along the northern Gulf.
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#2278 Postby Steve » Sun Aug 17, 2008 6:19 pm

>>Obviously Nogaps doesn't see the trough draped along the northern Gulf.

Run it at a different height and see what it's doing/anticipating and that should say why it is arriving at its solution. Some of the models yesterday (western ones) were flattening out the trough, one lifted it out, and another still negatively tilted it.

This is the link to the 12z.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/metoc/nogaps ... r_net.html

Not sure where to get the 18. FWIW, the 18z UKMET moves it further west and up due to the advancing upper low in the west (dives it down into the Dallas area by the end of the run). Here's the 500mb vorticity:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2279 Postby Alacane2 » Sun Aug 17, 2008 6:35 pm

Ivanhater wrote:18Z Nogaps

Image


Wow Ivan, that would be bad for us in the Mobile/Pensacola area. Can you tell how strong of a storm that model is predicting?
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#2280 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Aug 17, 2008 6:37 pm

New GFDL in, eastward shift.
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