Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[DESTRUCTION5]

18Z GDDL back a little East...South of Tampa thru Jax

[caneman]

Link to GFDL please

[Jason_B]

Just like we've seen, models shifting back east at night. NHC will probably nudge their track back to where it was earlier this morning.

[cpdaman]

Just like we've seen, models shifting back east at night. NHC will probably nudge their track back to where it was earlier this morning.

maybe or just widen the thing

[BigB0882]

Can someone post one of the maps that has all the models on it? I have no idea where you guys find those and I haven't seen one of those lately. I'm curious to see what they all say compared to what the NHC is predicting.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Link to GFDL please

Got it off the ACCUWX pro Site...Should be public any sec..

[KWT]

The GFDL is so predictable, it'll go east in the early hour runs like 18z/0z then go back west at the 12z run, its really odd!

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL

WHXX04 KWBC 172330
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM FAY 06L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 17

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 20.7 80.0 290./14.9
6 20.9 80.7 281./ 7.1
12 21.7 81.2 329./ 9.1
18 22.9 81.9 331./14.3
24 23.5 82.3 327./ 7.2
30 24.3 82.2 12./ 7.3
36 25.2 82.2 358./ 9.8
42 26.2 82.3 354./10.0
48 27.2 82.1 11./10.1
54 28.0 81.9 13./ 8.0
60 29.1 81.7 15./10.6
66 30.3 81.4 10./12.0
72 31.1 81.5 357./ 8.6
78 31.9 81.4 9./ 8.1
84 32.9 81.7 340./10.2
90 33.9 82.2 334./11.1
96 35.0 82.7 336./11.7
102 36.8 83.2 344./18.3
108 38.3 83.4 354./15.0
114 39.9 82.9 14./16.4
120 41.7 82.7 7./17.9
126 43.1 82.2 19./14.6


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[SouthFloridawx]

[TheRingo]

The GFDL is so predictable, it'll go east in the early hour runs like 18z/0z then go back west at the 12z run, its really odd!

yep, and the 0z and 6z will be even more east. Then it will shift back west for the 12z.

[KWT]

Hmmm GFDL has this down to 996mbs right now, may well make a difference as to why its a little further east of the rest of the guidence.

Still its interesting to see the GFDL constantly shift back and forth, I want to see some run on run agreement before given it more weight.

[mathwhizz]

If any of you have google earth, this will overlay all of the latest models in it.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/plots/g ... _Basin.kmz

[sunnyday]

Only 3 counties in the whole state are taken out of the cone: P Beach, Martin, or ST. Lucie. We must be living right...

[MGC]

That trough over the NGOM is going to have to lift out for Fay to reach much above Tampa IMO. NOGAPS ain't goona happen....MGC

[CronkPSU]

If any of you have google earth, this will overlay all of the latest models in it.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/plots/g ... _Basin.kmz

holy crap!!! this is awesome, luckily I have to zoom out just a bit to see the closest model to hitting Apopka...does this automatically refresh?

[Jason_B]

That trough over the NGOM is going to have to lift out for Fay to reach much above Tampa IMO. NOGAPS ain't goona happen....MGC

Bingo, not sure why others are having a hard timing realizing that.

[Steve]

Thank mathwhizz. I'd been meaning to download Google Earth for a long time, and that overlay was mandatory. When you add in the satellite and radar overlays, it's like you've got better access than television. JMO

Steve

[KWT]

Yep that overlay relaly is very impressive indeed!
So many different pieces of guidence there its great!

[SouthFLTropics]

Only 3 counties in the whole state are taken out of the cone: P Beach, Martin, or ST. Lucie. We must be living right...

You obviously havn't been to the mall lately. There's plenty of young examples of young people not "living right" there every weekend.

Nah, we just paid our dues in September of 2004...We're paid up for a while.

SFT

[SouthFLTropics]

Thank mathwhizz. I'd been meaning to download Google Earth for a long time, and that overlay was mandatory. When you add in the satellite and radar overlays, it's like you've got better access than television. JMO

Steve

Google Earth rocks!!! I love the overlays for the tropics. I just wish it would refresh automatically.