ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Clipper96]

Does anyone have a link to a pressure-changes chart for that region?

[Scorpion]

i sure don't think that is very likely but who knows i think the "hills" will take a big toll on her tonite thru morning.

I doubt it.. shes not that organized to begin with.

[fci]

I suspect when I awake tomm morning Miami will be back in cone and the models will shift east again...

Yeah, I espect 5 AM will shift east too.
And if the pattern continues, the 11 AM will go further west as will the 5 PM and then the 11 PM will slide east.

It seems we will finally know the "truth" when it happens!

[cpdaman]

not the smartest storm

headed right at the highest peak (3000 feet)

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

The highest point of Cuba is less than 2000 feet, and it is on the other side of the island.

wrong......no soup for you

[txwatcher91]

i sure don't think that is very likely but who knows i think the "hills" will take a big toll on her tonite thru morning.

Should be over land about 8 hours, and considering the DMAX, improving ULL conditions, it should hold together pretty well IMO. Look for it to be over water again by 7am tomorrow based on current movement.

[funster]

About to hit land, about 5 miles off shore according to Key West radar.

Still has a while before Cuba it seems. Looks to be moving wnw or nw on Key West's long range radar.

[HURAKAN]

There is one peak of about 1000 m in central Cuba. Everything else is flat land.

[txwatcher91]

About to hit land, about 5 miles off shore according to Key West radar.

Still has a while before Cuba it seems. Looks to be moving wnw or nw on Key West's long range radar.

Are you looking at the high-res data?

Cross section shows 60K tops!

[cpdaman]

possibly but i would wager a guess that it will be noon before she goes back over water, and that she will hit the key's by late evening and then SW florida by tues morn as a strong tropical storm

[lbvbl]

Considering not much strengthening has occurred during the time between Hispaniola and Cuba, why do they expect so much strengthening after Fay passes over Cuba? It doesnt really make sense to me considering it passed over quite alot of open water without strengthening...

[cpdaman]

There is one peak of about 1000 m in central Cuba. Everything else is flat land.

it's a 50 x50 mile area of mountainous land, so it's more than just sandy beaches , especially should this small litte LLC decide to try her luck IMO

[HURAKAN]

This picture is from that area in central Cuba.

[Evil Jeremy]

New GFS... SFL hit... from the south.

[MWatkins]

One note about the elongated circulation (east to west)....there is a chance this is stretched because the low center is trying to follow the deeper convection...which is looking more and more symmetrical by the hour.

If the center jumps over just a little and reforms there...we could still get a strong tropical storm/borderline hurricane before landfall...despite what some mets out there who, incidentially, poo poo every developing system until it's a major hurricane, then they jump on board (see Humberto last year)...want to believe.

Also...looking at the flow around the ULL and Atlantic high...I really expect a shift east in the 0Z guidance.

MW

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

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It has reformed its centeral core with deep 80c convection over its core. I think the winds are now near 50 knots with pressure near 998 millibars.

I expect tonight it will make landfall into Cuba. In which case will destroy its innercore and force it to expand into a broad system yet again. It will take about 24 hours once back over the gulf of Mexico to reform a innercore...In which time it can restrengthen. The question is with the shifts back to the east will it have more then 30 hours over water once it makes it back into the gulf. It seems hard pressed it will be a hurricane. We will see.

[chris_fit]

New GFS... SFL hit... from the south.

[cpdaman]

This picture is from that area in central Cuba.

beautiful pick, i bet that little waterfall is raging right now. hopefully minimal damage there.

[AdamFirst]

Considering not much strengthening has occurred during the time between Hispaniola and Cuba, why do they expect so much strengthening after Fay passes over Cuba? It doesnt really make sense to me considering it passed over quite alot of open water without strengthening...

Development has been inhibited due to high terrain, shear and circulation disputes

Fay faces her final hurdle tonight as she will be rid of these inhibitors so it can strengthen when she goes over the Florida Straits

[cpdaman]

matt i completely agree and just as she was getting her crap together again

[SouthFLTropics]

New GFS... SFL hit... from the south.

Looks to me like Fort Myers...I'm assuming you meant SW Florida, Not SE...

SFT