Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[TheRingo]

Is this a double hit back into Jacksonville?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 14_m.shtml

[AdamFirst]

Wow that GFS model is freaky.

[Scorpion]

Back into the Gulf!

[jhpigott]

correct me if i'm wrong, but the GFS is showing a strong high developing to the north of Fay our 48 or so hours and basically stalls it off the FL East coast before shooting it back west over the state . . . we could be dealing with Fay for a long time . . . well, Lake O does need a refill . . .

[vaffie]

sheesh, that's messed up. what would that make--like three landfalls in america...? wonder where it makes the third landfall.

[ericinmia]

Here is a quick gif of 6hr through 48 hours on the new 00z GFS run....

[Bocadude85]

perhaps a hurricane watch may be needed for the southeast coast of florida?

[crazycajuncane]

Just incase anyone thinks Fay is going to explode into a Category 3 or anything like that before making landfall, I want to warn that I will be dropping big blocks of ice into the Gulf of Mexico to cool the waters.

[Scorpion]

Wouldn't that be crazy.. TS to Florida, then come back as a hurricane, then come back across the Gulf into Texas.

[crazycajuncane]

Wouldn't that be crazy.. TS to Florida, then come back as a hurricane, then come back across the Gulf into Texas.

Did someone call Ivan?

[TheRingo]

3rd hit LA. what???

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 16_m.shtml

[vaffie]

Just for the record, the GFS has it hitting New Orleans. Crazy scenario, no? Wow.

[AtlanticWind]

Fay may try to hit every spot in the US coastline . A dream storm for all the people I disagree with

[jinftl]

and the local mets i heard at 11pm said pretty much worst case for miami-dade and broward would be periodic heavy showers...not ruling out isolated tornado or two and blustery 24 hour or so period commencing monday night...winds sustained 25-35 with a few ts gusts.

made me wonder if even the ts watch would be dropped...who knows any more?

did the gfs shift east?

Big time east. East enough to bring this inland SFL and to the Carolinas.

[MWatkins]

I am sure this was already mentioned...but there are two interesting things about GFS this run:

1. It was with the synoptic drops...so better model data.

2. It is very similar to the 12Z Euro...

MW

[crazycajuncane]

Just for the record, the GFS has it hitting New Orleans. Crazy scenario, no? Wow.

As long as it hits after Monday. I've been watching Fay for over a week and I'm glad that she is going the way she is. I am spending the birthday weekend in New Orleans and I don't want to get caught in some sort of evacuation, because I can imagine it would be chaos.

[GeneratorPower]

Whoa! Look at that crazy track back into the GOM. You have to be kidding me. And it's believable.

[jaxfladude]

Whoa! Look at that crazy track back into the GOM. You have to be kidding me. And it's believable.

The GFS model is just flat out wrong ...must be on crack ..we would have to totally re-think all that we know about weather patterns(as much as we do at this point ) and so forth if that track happens ......



EDIT: Just my thoughts while getting very tired now folks...need to hit the sack....

[Ivanhater]

I would normally laugh at this run, but witht the Euro showing it as well..steering currents seem to collapse in a few days with a STRONG high building back in, who knows..

[TheRingo]

how good is the GFS over land anyways? This can't possibly verify. I'll wait for the GFDL.