Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

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TheRingo
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#2381 Postby TheRingo » Sun Aug 17, 2008 11:21 pm

Is this a double hit back into Jacksonville?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 14_m.shtml
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AdamFirst
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#2382 Postby AdamFirst » Sun Aug 17, 2008 11:24 pm

Wow that GFS model is freaky.
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#2383 Postby Scorpion » Sun Aug 17, 2008 11:26 pm

Back into the Gulf!
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2384 Postby jhpigott » Sun Aug 17, 2008 11:27 pm

correct me if i'm wrong, but the GFS is showing a strong high developing to the north of Fay our 48 or so hours and basically stalls it off the FL East coast before shooting it back west over the state . . . we could be dealing with Fay for a long time . . . well, Lake O does need a refill . . .
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2385 Postby vaffie » Sun Aug 17, 2008 11:30 pm

sheesh, that's messed up. what would that make--like three landfalls in america...? wonder where it makes the third landfall.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2386 Postby ericinmia » Sun Aug 17, 2008 11:36 pm

Here is a quick gif of 6hr through 48 hours on the new 00z GFS run....

Image
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2387 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Aug 17, 2008 11:37 pm

perhaps a hurricane watch may be needed for the southeast coast of florida?
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#2388 Postby crazycajuncane » Sun Aug 17, 2008 11:37 pm

Just incase anyone thinks Fay is going to explode into a Category 3 or anything like that before making landfall, I want to warn that I will be dropping big blocks of ice into the Gulf of Mexico to cool the waters. :froze: :lol:
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#2389 Postby Scorpion » Sun Aug 17, 2008 11:38 pm

Wouldn't that be crazy.. TS to Florida, then come back as a hurricane, then come back across the Gulf into Texas.
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#2390 Postby crazycajuncane » Sun Aug 17, 2008 11:39 pm

Scorpion wrote:Wouldn't that be crazy.. TS to Florida, then come back as a hurricane, then come back across the Gulf into Texas.


Did someone call Ivan?
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#2391 Postby TheRingo » Sun Aug 17, 2008 11:39 pm

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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2392 Postby vaffie » Sun Aug 17, 2008 11:40 pm

Just for the record, the GFS has it hitting New Orleans. Crazy scenario, no? Wow.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2393 Postby AtlanticWind » Sun Aug 17, 2008 11:41 pm

Fay may try to hit every spot in the US coastline . A dream storm for all the people I disagree with
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2394 Postby jinftl » Sun Aug 17, 2008 11:41 pm

and the local mets i heard at 11pm said pretty much worst case for miami-dade and broward would be periodic heavy showers...not ruling out isolated tornado or two and blustery 24 hour or so period commencing monday night...winds sustained 25-35 with a few ts gusts.

made me wonder if even the ts watch would be dropped...who knows any more?



Evil Jeremy wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:did the gfs shift east?


Big time east. East enough to bring this inland SFL and to the Carolinas.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2395 Postby MWatkins » Sun Aug 17, 2008 11:42 pm

I am sure this was already mentioned...but there are two interesting things about GFS this run:

1. It was with the synoptic drops...so better model data.

2. It is very similar to the 12Z Euro...

MW
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2396 Postby crazycajuncane » Sun Aug 17, 2008 11:42 pm

vaffie wrote:Just for the record, the GFS has it hitting New Orleans. Crazy scenario, no? Wow.


As long as it hits after Monday. I've been watching Fay for over a week and I'm glad that she is going the way she is. I am spending the birthday weekend in New Orleans and I don't want to get caught in some sort of evacuation, because I can imagine it would be chaos.
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#2397 Postby GeneratorPower » Sun Aug 17, 2008 11:43 pm

Whoa! Look at that crazy track back into the GOM. You have to be kidding me. And it's believable.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2398 Postby jaxfladude » Sun Aug 17, 2008 11:46 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:Whoa! Look at that crazy track back into the GOM. You have to be kidding me. And it's believable.


The GFS model is just flat out wrong :eek: ...must be on crack :roll: ..we would have to totally :double: re-think all that we know about weather patterns(as much as we do at this point :wink: ) and so forth if that track happens :x ......



EDIT: Just my thoughts while getting very tired now folks...need to hit the sack....
Last edited by jaxfladude on Sun Aug 17, 2008 11:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2399 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 17, 2008 11:46 pm

I would normally laugh at this run, but witht the Euro showing it as well..steering currents seem to collapse in a few days with a STRONG high building back in, who knows..
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#2400 Postby TheRingo » Sun Aug 17, 2008 11:47 pm

how good is the GFS over land anyways? This can't possibly verify. I'll wait for the GFDL.
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