ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Extremeweatherguy]

Updated... They still think it's going to go that far west? It seems like it's moving NNW now..
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 28W_sm.gif

They only update the track forecast at 5am, 11am, 5pm and 11pm. Look for possible changes in the next new update.

[HURAKAN]

[Evil Jeremy]

For Fay to make the next forecast point, it will need to make a westward turn VERY soon. TS warnings will probably go up for the east and west coasts of Florida at the 5 AM.

[AdamFirst]

Then again I don't blame the NHC

Satellites are down at the moment and the RECON plane just arrived

we'll know at 5

I'm going to bed but I'll be back in a couple hours

[Scorpion]

Not sure what the NHC is thinking here.

[Category 5]

This time lapse pretty much speaks for itself. The vortex passes right over the radar site, which at most is about the height of Pico San Juan + maybe 100 feet for the tower...so it's looking at 3000-3500 feet up at most.

is it just me, or does it appear that it has REALLY sped up?

No it's not just you. Lets see what the 2am advisory says. But it looks like Fay woke the heck up and is running to the Florida Straits.

Looks inland and east of the track.

[lbvbl]

Updated... They still think it's going to go that far west? It seems like it's moving NNW now..
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 28W_sm.gif

Forecast track is never updated at intermediate advisories.

So, is the location that NHC has Fay now the same location NHC predicted for the 11pm track? That could hint to us whether or not the track will shift at 5am.

[funster]

It was still moving nw all along like I said many times earlier.

[RL3AO]

Not sure what the NHC is thinking here.

Theres nothing they can do. The observation stations over central Cuba aren't working, satellite is out, and recon just got there but can't go over land.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yeah, the 2am advisory is highly suspicious. It doesn't even look like Recon found anything significant in the position they placed the center.

[cpdaman]

Call me crazy but I don't really trust the NHC advisory right now

it doesn't even match the limited recon date, weird

[AdamFirst]

Not sure what the NHC is thinking here.

Theres nothing they can do. The observation stations over central Cuba aren't working, satellite is out, and recon just got there but can't go over land.

RECON is allowed to go over Cuban airspace right now and satellites will be up soon.

[Evil Jeremy]

oh really, whats causing the speculation?

members here were speculating about that earlier. Don't remember where though.

[RL3AO]

Not sure what the NHC is thinking here.

Theres nothing they can do. The observation stations over central Cuba aren't working, satellite is out, and recon just got there but can't go over land.

RECON is allowed to go over Cuban airspace right now and satellites will be up soon.

They can't go in at low levels and they can't do drops over land.

[Chacor]

Not sure what the NHC is thinking here.

Theres nothing they can do. The observation stations over central Cuba aren't working, satellite is out, and recon just got there but can't go over land.

RECON is allowed to go over Cuban airspace right now and satellites will be up soon.

Yes, but to fly over the mountains of Cuba in the dead of night would be suicide.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Anyone else notice how recon pressure continues to drop even as the plane heads east and southeast of the 2AM position?

I think that should be a tip off right there that it was probably an inaccurate position.

[Clipper96]

Eyewall reforming now, directly in the center of the landmass.

First outer band should reach the Keys in about an hour, unless it slows down.

[AdamFirst]

They can't go in at low levels and they can't do drops over land.

Oh, wow. Thanks Cuba.

And it WAS an inaccurate position.

[cpdaman]

who ever is flying the plane should fly to the north side of island and wait another hour or two and they will see fay

[hiflyer]

Agree...think the NHC is going to do it at the 5...over 2 hrs from now, get all the data, get it right and plenty of time for schools and such to react accordingly. Besides....would guess that they are cranking numbers like crazy such as if radar is right --what and how much is Fay going to blow up or not when it fully hits the straits...let alone which way....or how fast. And if radar is right the mdoels just went "buhbye" for the short term. Those are big money decisions...and their track record is pretty good....better them than me....I just have to worry about gas in the tank and beer in the cooler.