ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[ROCK]

notice the dry air to its W/NW in that pic.....just one of the reasons it cant maintain convection.

[masaji79]

This might be like 92L which formed into Fay. A good looking tropical wave for a long time before developing.

[cheezyWXguy]

It most certainly continues to organize convection. Now a burst directly over the center, with another small one developing on the nw side of it. In addition, convection further away from the center continues to form, and reds are now appearing. Dont be so sure that this thing wont develop. It may be slightly later than I thought, but well just have to see what the dmax brings.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

Continues to organize. The pessimism I have been reading and the comparisons to the previous 94L or 92L seem to be unfounded at the moment. It's the middle of August and development is possible. I still think that we must wait at least 24 hours before saying poof or TD 7. Furthermore, what is the hurry?

[ROCK]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

Continues to organize. The pessimism I have been reading and the comparisons to the previous 94L or 92L seem to be unfounded at the moment. It's the middle of August and development is possible. I still think that we must wait at least 24 hours before saying poof or TD 7. Furthermore, what is the hurry?

No hurry here Hurakan.. I am a veteran of the board...

[cycloneye]

Any funeral for 94L is very premature.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks good and has a closed LLC. Who here believes that if it was in the gulf that the nhc would be writing advisories on it? Thank you.

[ConvergenceZone]

It is kinda funny that the naysayers are writing this one off so quickly....

[cycloneye]

This pass was made around 5:00 PM EDT.It shows the circulation elongated but closed.

[RL3AO]

The southern buoy had a northeast wind at 9kt six hours ago, how has a west wind.

The northern buoy has a pressure of 1012 mb up from 1010 mb earlier. Probably diurnal related?

[cycloneye]

The southern buoy had a northeast wind at 9kt six hours ago, how has a west wind.

The northern buoy has a pressure of 1012 mb up from 1010 mb earlier. Probably diurnal related?

That bouy has wind changing directions all day long.Tonight mostly WSW and West Winds are there.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41026

[tolakram]

[BigA]

Convection is on the wax. In the long-term, I give this greater than 50% chance of becoming at least a depression, but that's just speculation.

[cycloneye]

A Flareup going on.Now its eclipse time.Lets see after its over how it looks.

[Cyclenall]

It's making a decent comeback early this morning. The rate in which convection just flared over this system suggests that this one is serious business. I would not be shocked to see a TD within the next 18-24 hours.

[cheezyWXguy]

It's making a decent comeback early this morning. The rate in which convection just flared over this system suggests that this one is serious business. I would not be shocked to see a TD within the next 18-24 hours.

If the center is in the red, then i expect td tomorrow morning at 11...but, more likely 5 or 11pm tomorrow

[boca]

I'm so involved with Fay which is directly affecting me. Whats the synoptic set up with 94L,will it make it across?

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm so involved with Fay which is directly affecting me. Whats the synoptic set up with 94L,will it make it across?

models point 94 to eastern fla, and are near the ne antilles or ne of there in about 5 days. Ridge appears to be strong enough to push this west.

[Ivanhater]

I still don't expect much from this one..not much model support, fairly stable atmosphere. and some shear in its path