ATL: Tropical Depression Fay
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- deltadog03
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- DESTRUCTION5
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Yeah the key for this will be just how much longer the NE motion continues, the sooner it stops the sooner its going to bend back west and obviously the bigger the risk this gets back into the gulf, no certainty but its a possiblity that needs to be watched, the trough does seem to be lifting out right now.
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Re:
deltadog03 wrote:There will be a nice 200mb anti-cyclone over the top of this...This is why I think she looks as good as she does now. (1 reason)
yep, also plenty of juice available for fay from the west and east and also in the everglades
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- SeaBrz_FL
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula
jlauderdal wrote: yep, those Atlantic ssts are chilly in august off florida
Yes, they are and I hate it! Temp at Canaveral shore was warmer than normal at the end of May, but plummeted below 80F sometime in June and has never recovered. Many people have asked "why?", but we've never gotten a definitive answer. At first, the answer was "normal upwelling", but still two months later??!
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- gatorcane
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Re:
KWT wrote:Yeah the key for this will be just how much longer the NE motion continues, the sooner it stops the sooner its going to bend back west and obviously the bigger the risk this gets back into the gulf, no certainty but its a possiblity that needs to be watched, the trough does seem to be lifting out right now.
My concern has grown some for this scenario this AM looking at the synoptics.....
I hope for it to move more NNE and gain some lattitude if possible but beginning to wonder just how much lattitude she is going to gain.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula
carversteve wrote:Ok i will ask again..any pro or mets comments appreciated!
Just a question....What are the chances she never makes it to the east coast of florida before she turns back west into the gulf??
I think very slim. She should make it to the Atlantic...and that is where the "Fun" will begin and where my worry begins as well.
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- sittingduck
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Re: Re:
gatorcane wrote:KWT wrote:Yeah the key for this will be just how much longer the NE motion continues, the sooner it stops the sooner its going to bend back west and obviously the bigger the risk this gets back into the gulf, no certainty but its a possiblity that needs to be watched, the trough does seem to be lifting out right now.
My concern has grown some for this scenario this AM looking at the synoptics.....
I hope for it to move more NNE and gain some lattitude if possible but beginning to wonder just how much lattitude she is going to gain.
In both of your, KWT and Gatorcane, thought processes - what does this mean as far as movement - more east? more west? - also could you explain your thoughts on the timing of this - thanks in advance.
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- fwbbreeze
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula
Air Force Met wrote:carversteve wrote:Ok i will ask again..any pro or mets comments appreciated!
Just a question....What are the chances she never makes it to the east coast of florida before she turns back west into the gulf??
I think very slim. She should make it to the Atlantic...and that is where the "Fun" will begin and where my worry begins as well.
do tell??

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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula
Looks like the center will clip the northwest edge of Lake Okeechobee based on radar motion from
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... 9&smooth=0
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... 9&smooth=0
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula
Air Force Met wrote:carversteve wrote:Ok i will ask again..any pro or mets comments appreciated!
Just a question....What are the chances she never makes it to the east coast of florida before she turns back west into the gulf??
I think very slim. She should make it to the Atlantic...and that is where the "Fun" will begin and where my worry begins as well.
Agreed I think this will make it as well...but where do you think after that then, gulf or into SC/GA...

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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula
fwbbreeze wrote:Air Force Met wrote:carversteve wrote:Ok i will ask again..any pro or mets comments appreciated!
Just a question....What are the chances she never makes it to the east coast of florida before she turns back west into the gulf??
I think very slim. She should make it to the Atlantic...and that is where the "Fun" will begin and where my worry begins as well.
do tell??
Reading my mind again Kent?!! I am interested as well AFMet

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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula
Air Force Met wrote:carversteve wrote:Ok i will ask again..any pro or mets comments appreciated!
Just a question....What are the chances she never makes it to the east coast of florida before she turns back west into the gulf??
I think very slim. She should make it to the Atlantic...and that is where the "Fun" will begin and where my worry begins as well.
Can you go into more detail why you think this won't happen. There seems to be a lot of chatter since she hasn't been moving much at all. Thanks...
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- gatorcane
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Ft. Lauderdale just had their strongest gust yet at 40mph. I just checked the latest OB...link to OB below
Winds picking up as Fay seems to be strengthening still
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KFXE.html
Winds picking up as Fay seems to be strengthening still

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KFXE.html
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