ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[deltadog03]

There will be a nice 200mb anti-cyclone over the top of this...This is why I think she looks as good as she does now. (1 reason)

[DESTRUCTION5]

Must be Upwelling...

[KWT]

Yeah the key for this will be just how much longer the NE motion continues, the sooner it stops the sooner its going to bend back west and obviously the bigger the risk this gets back into the gulf, no certainty but its a possiblity that needs to be watched, the trough does seem to be lifting out right now.

[jlauderdal]

There will be a nice 200mb anti-cyclone over the top of this...This is why I think she looks as good as she does now. (1 reason)

yep, also plenty of juice available for fay from the west and east and also in the everglades

[SeaBrz_FL]

yep, those Atlantic ssts are chilly in august off florida

Yes, they are and I hate it! Temp at Canaveral shore was warmer than normal at the end of May, but plummeted below 80F sometime in June and has never recovered. Many people have asked "why?", but we've never gotten a definitive answer. At first, the answer was "normal upwelling", but still two months later??!

[gatorcane]

Yeah the key for this will be just how much longer the NE motion continues, the sooner it stops the sooner its going to bend back west and obviously the bigger the risk this gets back into the gulf, no certainty but its a possiblity that needs to be watched, the trough does seem to be lifting out right now.

My concern has grown some for this scenario this AM looking at the synoptics.....

I hope for it to move more NNE and gain some lattitude if possible but beginning to wonder just how much lattitude she is going to gain.

[Air Force Met]

Ok i will ask again..any pro or mets comments appreciated!
Just a question....What are the chances she never makes it to the east coast of florida before she turns back west into the gulf??

I think very slim. She should make it to the Atlantic...and that is where the "Fun" will begin and where my worry begins as well.

[sittingduck]

Yeah the key for this will be just how much longer the NE motion continues, the sooner it stops the sooner its going to bend back west and obviously the bigger the risk this gets back into the gulf, no certainty but its a possiblity that needs to be watched, the trough does seem to be lifting out right now.

My concern has grown some for this scenario this AM looking at the synoptics.....

I hope for it to move more NNE and gain some lattitude if possible but beginning to wonder just how much lattitude she is going to gain.

In both of your, KWT and Gatorcane, thought processes - what does this mean as far as movement - more east? more west? - also could you explain your thoughts on the timing of this - thanks in advance.

[KWT]

Well the thing is gatorcane how sharp is any transition, the quicker it makes the bend back round then the greater the chances are of it reaching the gulf, I wouldn't like to say how this will weork in the next 24hrs, I would not like to be a forecaster right now!

[fwbbreeze]

Ok i will ask again..any pro or mets comments appreciated!
Just a question....What are the chances she never makes it to the east coast of florida before she turns back west into the gulf??

I think very slim. She should make it to the Atlantic...and that is where the "Fun" will begin and where my worry begins as well.

do tell??

[BigA]

Looks like the center will clip the northwest edge of Lake Okeechobee based on radar motion from

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... 9&smooth=0

[gatorcane]

eye becoming visible again on VIS, it's that dot just WSW of Lake O.

[KWT]

Ok i will ask again..any pro or mets comments appreciated!
Just a question....What are the chances she never makes it to the east coast of florida before she turns back west into the gulf??

I think very slim. She should make it to the Atlantic...and that is where the "Fun" will begin and where my worry begins as well.

Agreed I think this will make it as well...but where do you think after that then, gulf or into SC/GA...

[sunny]

Ok i will ask again..any pro or mets comments appreciated!
Just a question....What are the chances she never makes it to the east coast of florida before she turns back west into the gulf??

I think very slim. She should make it to the Atlantic...and that is where the "Fun" will begin and where my worry begins as well.

do tell??

Reading my mind again Kent?!! I am interested as well AFMet

[SoupBone]

Ok i will ask again..any pro or mets comments appreciated!
Just a question....What are the chances she never makes it to the east coast of florida before she turns back west into the gulf??

I think very slim. She should make it to the Atlantic...and that is where the "Fun" will begin and where my worry begins as well.

Can you go into more detail why you think this won't happen. There seems to be a lot of chatter since she hasn't been moving much at all. Thanks...

[HURAKAN]

Just had a gust of 32 mph. Strongest yet.

[gatorcane]

Ft. Lauderdale just had their strongest gust yet at 40mph. I just checked the latest OB...link to OB below

Winds picking up as Fay seems to be strengthening still

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KFXE.html

[KWT]

Yep shallow eye once again showing, I do wonder whether there are other processes like Baroclinic deepening which is helping it to keep going, I remember Wilma having much the same thing.

Motion is slowinmg as the upper trough moves out of the way, this was to be expected.

[tgenius]

Just had a gust of 32 mph. Strongest yet.

You know I was just commenting to my wife it feels stronger wind wise now then all of last night

[KWT]

In fact you could say the radar presentation is the best it has looked in its life despite bfeing halfway over Florida!

At least its easy enough to track now!