ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[AdamFirst]

Im seeing a NE/ENE jog...

There is major flooding in Eastern Port Saint Lucie, the entire city east of US1 seems to be impassable, according to local government

[KWT]

Honestly this is pretty stunning to watch, Wilma held its presentation on this track BUT Fay is actually strenghtneing...this is going to be good for research!

I wonder whether what helped Erin is also playing a part with this system ,clearly can't be developing through normal process, probably got to be enhanced by Baroclinic processes I'd guess?

[wxman57]

FOLLOWING CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A
GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST TURN BUT GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SHARPER
WESTWARD TURN. IF SO...SOME SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED LATER ON.


So is the NHC biting yet guys?

Although I made a somewhat disparaging remark re: the GFDL earlier, you DO realize that the models showing that hard left turn you are referring to are the BAMM, and BAMS. Those two had FAY several days ago headed straight up the WEST coast to Mobile by now. Those two are probably the worst.

Actually the NHC is refering to the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global models.

The only global model I could find taking Fay into the Gulf is the GFS. The ECMWF does, of course, but it analyzes Fay in the Keys at 12Z this morning - way off. Has it over Tampa at 12Z tomorrow. Not likely. Canadian is near NHC track. UKMET just south of NHC but inland over FL panhandle. So I wonder what global model(s) the NHC means besides the GFS? Did they notice how badly the EC initialized?

[lebron23]

Question

Why here GFDL has Fay moving toward the gulf coast

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

but here it goes to Canada

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Just Joshing You]

Elena 1985 did not make landfall on Florida. She was over very hot waters for quite some time.

[txwatcher91]

I don't know what this means, but I just noticed something interesting. Low level clouds over Tennesse, Arkansas, Louisiana, etc. are moving west while the high level clouds over the same area, especially the tall thunderstorms, are moving to the east/northeast. Anyone know what this means, as if the ridge was building in the high storm tops should be moving west also, right? Anyone have any comments on this and what it means?

[paintplaye]

1hr movement 2026Z-2126Z toward 011 degrees 5.5 kts.

2hr movement 1926Z-2126Z toward 022 degrees at 5.3 kts.

Lets see if the trend continues...

[TideJoe]

1hr movement 2026Z-2126Z toward 011 degrees 5.5 kts.

2hr movement 1926Z-2126Z toward 022 degrees at 5.3 kts.

It'll be interesting to see if the 11 degree average holds the next hour or if it bends back towards the right again.

[Ground_Zero_92]

Im seeing a NE/ENE jog...

There is major flooding in Eastern Port Saint Lucie, the entire city east of US1 seems to be impassable, according to local government

Yea, we have had a crazy amount of rain just south of you as well. My street is now a flowing river.

[Just Joshing You]

The GFDL has a 105 KT storm off the coast of Florida.

[hiflyer]

Gonna be interesting to see this number in a couple of days

Lake Okeechobee water level as of Aug 19, 2008

11.34 ft.



About 3 ft. below historical average for this time of year.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pagei ... ema=PORTAL

[cpdaman]

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ?ID=MS65DW

station reporting 986 and change MB. weaken? not my girl fay

[leaf blower]

Is there any live streaming i can watch?

[tolakram]

I don't know what this means, but I just noticed something interesting. Low level clouds over Tennesse, Arkansas, Louisiana, etc. are moving west while the high level clouds over the same area, especially the tall thunderstorms, are moving to the east/northeast. Anyone know what this means, as if the ridge was building in the high storm tops should be moving west also, right? Anyone have any comments on this and what it means?

I don't have an answer but this loop shows up what I think you're talking about.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-vis.html

[NFLnut]

FOLLOWING CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A
GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST TURN BUT GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SHARPER
WESTWARD TURN. IF SO...SOME SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED LATER ON.


So is the NHC biting yet guys?

Although I made a somewhat disparaging remark re: the GFDL earlier, you DO realize that the models showing that hard left turn you are referring to are the BAMM, and BAMS. Those two had FAY several days ago headed straight up the WEST coast to Mobile by now. Those two are probably the worst.

Yes and the GFDL had it going all the way to Canada.

All of them had it going to Canada or NE. But the BAMM and the BAMS had FAY headed straight to Gulf Shores. They were both the far LEFT outliers. At least the GFDL was a little closer to the eventual track, and it adjusted correctly, faster than either of those two.

[tolakram]

Moving northeast (ish) again. Or a wobble, but nevertheless an excuse to post yet another radar loop.

[Just Joshing You]

I don't know what this means, but I just noticed something interesting. Low level clouds over Tennesse, Arkansas, Louisiana, etc. are moving west while the high level clouds over the same area, especially the tall thunderstorms, are moving to the east/northeast. Anyone know what this means, as if the ridge was building in the high storm tops should be moving west also, right? Anyone have any comments on this and what it means?

I don't have an answer but this loop shows up what I think you're talking about.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-vis.html

It means conditions are conducive for the rare Category 6 Hurricane to form whilst over land. ::nod::

[KWT]

Once this gets into the waters of the Atlantic if it still has this presentation its pretty obviously going to strengthewn into a hurricane, the GFDL strength is quite possible IMO IF it takes that sort of track.

[paintplaye]

FOLLOWING CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A
GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST TURN BUT GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SHARPER
WESTWARD TURN. IF SO...SOME SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED LATER ON.


So is the NHC biting yet guys?

Although I made a somewhat disparaging remark re: the GFDL earlier, you DO realize that the models showing that hard left turn you are referring to are the BAMM, and BAMS. Those two had FAY several days ago headed straight up the WEST coast to Mobile by now. Those two are probably the worst.

Yes and the GFDL had it going all the way to Canada.

All of them had it going to Canada or NE. But the BAMM and the BAMS had FAY headed straight to Gulf Shores. They were both the far LEFT outliers. At least the GFDL was a little closer to the eventual track, and it adjusted correctly, faster than either of those two.[/quote]

The track has it going to the gulf more though. So what are you trying to say? You are really not helping your case.

[Steve Cosby]

Did they notice how badly the EC initialized?

Are you kidding?